F Fund

[vectorman]

Big volume on the AGG chart yesterday. Support held. 10 yr Y may continue down to test 4.5, depends if those in bonds think the Fed will lower again.

View attachment 2239

 

[The_Technician]

As I said in post #317 ( ,http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=118728&postcount=317) sometimes the AGG chart does not give you a clear picture of what price to expect in the F fund at the end of the day. For example, looking at the AGG chart yesterday, you probably thought the F fund would be down alot. But looking at the 10yr T chart you see a different picture.

View attachment 2238

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^TNX

That's because they paid a dividend yesterday....it happens often

 

[vectorman]

10yr Tres, 5 year chart. Notice that each time the 4.5 has broken from below to above, there was a retest back to 4.5.

View attachment 2204

The 10yr T tested 4.5 this morning. ISM number was alright, and tomorrow is jobless claims and factory orders, followed by Fridays job numbers. Unless there is some news to cause yields to go lower, the F fund may give up some profit or go sideways until friday. If G doesn't pay today, it will for sure tomorrow.

Below, 10yr Y index chart

View attachment 2248


http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=TNX

 

[vectorman]

Careful with the F fund long term, more downside may be coming. The belief that the Fed will cut rates another 25pts
by end of month is now less than 50% chance, after jobs #. Recession is getting put on the back burner; inflation is back on the front burner.

10yr T yield index chart

View attachment 2273

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=TNX

 

[SkyPilot]

Looks like the F fund is ahead overall so far today...

 

[nnuut]

I can't find good numbers on bonds anywhere except Yahoo AGG! are we sure Bond Markets are open today? If you Can find good TNX numbers let me know, I'm 100% "F" today.

 

[Boxholder]

No, the bond market is closed today.

 

[nnuut]

I thought soooooo! Thanks

 

[SkyPilot]

I thought soooooo! Thanks

I was looking at this... sounds as if this won't make any difference for today?


ISHARES LEH AGG FD (NYSEArca:AGG)

 

[nnuut]

SP do you mean that the AGG will pay even if the Bond Markets are closed?
I hope so now Yahoo lists AGG up 1.07% FOR AN ALL TIME HIGH, in one day, I suppose!!!
NO WAY, I would think they just forgot to turn it off!:laugh:

 

[TerpTrader]

The F fund (AGG) is riding the 200 MA and is in a symmetrical triangle of late...hard to predict which way it turns here.

 

[TerpTrader]

If you follow AGG for the F, it's looking good, with higher lows and the 50ma about to cross up through the 200ma.

If you follow TLT however, we are testing the 200ma support for the 2nd time over the past 3 weeks, and we the 20ma is about to cross down through the 50ma.

 

[James48843]

"F" looking pretty healthy today!

 

[vectorman]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601009&sid=a4gyk5CUX6Hg&refer=bond

 

[vectorman]

So where could the F fund be heading? Looking at the 10yr T yield chart. Its right at a critical support. If it holds look for a sell off, but if breaks through soon, looks like around 4.0 might be the next target. So will the Fed really cut another 50 pts or put a net under the dollar?

View attachment 2357

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=TNX

 

[vectorman]

Another look. 10yr T yield chart. Back to 1998.

View attachment 2359

 

[vectorman]

AGG chart back to beginning 2004. Have to ask yourself, is there going to be some more upside from here, and what will it take to make it happen?


View attachment 2360

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

AGG chart back to beginning 2004. Have to ask yourself, is there going to be some more upside from here, and what will it take to make it happen?


View attachment 2360

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=AGG

potential rate cut?..tho the s&p bouncing off the lower uptrend line of 1500 today might lessen the odds.

 

[DCguy]

F's not doing well lately.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

F's not doing well lately.

True, $TNX looks like it might have double bottomed on wednesday, and turned up, higher highs, higher lows, higher closes on thurs and today. But, still oversold and hasn't come out of oversold yet