Exnavyew's Account Talk

[exnavyew]

Buy the rumor, sell the news?

Yeah, I think it might be as simple as that.

 

[exnavyew]

Not sure whether to root for the bigger cut or not.
S-fund maybe:scratchchin:

Stock market today: Stocks rise with jumbo Fed cut back on the table

Stock market today: Stocks rise with jumbo Fed cut back on the table

 

[exnavyew]

[FONT=&quot]"A bigger reduction could send stocks reeling." [/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]Don't like the sound of that.
I'll vote for the 25 cut. It IS a reduction after all and less likely to induce panic it seems.
Looking at the S-fund right now. :scratchchin:

[h=1]What a bigger-than-expected Fed rate cut would mean for the stock market[/h]What a bigger-than-expected Fed rate cut would mean for the stock market

 

[exnavyew]

Some love for the F-fund? :smile:

[h=1]Where to move your money when interest rates are poised to fall[/h]Where to move your money when interest rates are poised to fall

 

[exnavyew]

I'm assuming the .25 cut but with the market being so jittery and some more recent shots being taken at Donald, the prez election in general, I
may just wait until AFTER the rate cut and see how the market reacts before making a move.
Where's that crystal ball when ya need one!


[h=1]Fed rate cut: Experts warn big moves would be a mistake[/h]Fed rate cut: Experts warn big moves would be a mistake

 

[exnavyew]

59% chance of a .50 rate cut??
Bad vibe. Prefer the .25 for market 'stability'.
Sounds like I know what I'm talking about doesn't it? :laugh:

[TABLE="class: grid-thm grid-thm-v2 w-lg, width: 744"]
[TR="bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TH="bgcolor: #F8F8F8, align: center"]Target Rate (bps)[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F8F8F8, colspan: 4, align: center"]Probability(%)[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: compact, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TH="bgcolor: #F8F8F8, align: center"]Now *[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F8F8F8, align: center"]1 Day
13 Sep 2024[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F8F8F8, align: center"]1 Week
9 Sep 2024[/TH]
[TH="bgcolor: #F8F8F8, align: center"]1 Month
16 Aug 2024[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="class: center, align: center"]475-500[/TD]
[TD="class: number highlight, align: right"]59.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]50.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]30.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]25.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]
[TD="class: center, align: center"]500-525[/TD]
[TD="class: number highlight, align: right"]41.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]50.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]70.0%[/TD]
[TD="class: number, align: right"]75.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: odd"]
[TD="class: center, colspan: 5, align: center"]* Data as of 16 Sep 2024 12:51:58 CT[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

 

[exnavyew]

.75 rate cut? Really?
Settle down Elizabeth.
Just pure speculation but maybe a ploy to get the .50 instead of the .25? :scratchchin:


[h=1]Democratic Senators Call on Fed to Cut Rates by 75 Basis Points[/h]Democratic Senators Call on Fed to Cut Rates by 75 Basis Points

 

[tsptalk]

Is she saying the economy is that bad, or inflation is too low?

 

[exnavyew]

Is she saying the economy is that bad, or inflation is too low?

Sen. Warren advises 75bps Fed cut on recession fears

 

[tsptalk]

Yeah, I saw it. I was just being subtly cheeky. Neither of those are things her party is talking about. :27:

 

[exnavyew]

If it sounds too good to be true?......:worried:
Hope Tom Lee's crystal ball is in good working order cuz I'm 100% in stocks.
Heavy on the S-fund.
(my totally amateur reading says rate cuts are especially good for small caps, we'll see.)

And yet ready to 'flee to the G' if need be! uttahere:
[h=1]Get ready for stocks to embark on a weekslong rally after the Fed cuts rates, Fundstrat's Tom Lee says[/h]Stock Market Outlook: Fed Rate Cuts to Spark Weekslong Rally, Fundstrat Says - Markets Insider

 

[exnavyew]

Uh oh. Looks like the @#$% profit takers are at work!

 

[FAAM]

Thx for posting. I'm ex US-Army yet cruising with you on TSP right now, but I kept 20% in F & spread the rest out slightly favoring C, then S, then I. Odds seem favorable for bullish-action, yet a gamble for sure. As far as trying to be nimble, to be able to jump out to G on downturn... that is pretty tough with TSP of course; I notice if CSI drop that it'll likely be substantial for a day or two, yet then would that be sustained (?), as it has in past and could again start floating (or popping) right back up again. May we avoid the mines, attachers, traffic and/or rough-waves out there to be blessed with growth.

 

[exnavyew]

Greetings, I'm 100% in stocks but at the moment it looks like them darn profit takers are at work.
Hope they do a .25 cut Wed, seems like any bigger and that would panic the market but I think the
real key is gonna be what Powell says in his news conference. If what he says is well received by the market then we're off
to the races. If the market smells trouble it could be a 'sell the news' reaction big time.
Good Luck!!! :smile:

 

[exnavyew]

Cool it Elizabeth.
Whatever her motives this 'sky is falling' type message can only rattle the market IMO.
Chill girl.

[h=1]Elizabeth Warren calls for emergency-like Fed rate cut ASAP[/h]Elizabeth Warren calls for emergency-like Fed rate cut ASAP

 

[exnavyew]

Lot of people want that .50 cut.

(Amateur opinion alert!)
Regardless of the size of the cut I think what Powell says
in the press conference will be the 'real' market mover.
Either the market will like or dislike what he says and react accordingly.
Hope he comes out with a positive, upbeat, reassuring message. :smile:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

 

[exnavyew]

I've run across several articles basically saying that the rate change is indeed a good thing BUT
the first month or so is usually 'volatile'.
Plus there's a prez election and let's not forget, it IS still Sept. etc. etc. etc.
Well that's just great.
I'm burnt out reading tea leaves. I need a rest at the funny farm. :nuts::nuts::nuts:

 

[exnavyew]

Tom Lee and his fellow 'analysts' said that the rate cut would be good for the stock market over the next 3-12 months but things would be 'volatile' initially.
Well, at least for today, they got the 'volatile' part right. Probably for the next month or so as well. Time will tell.
I still think, long term, the rate cut(s) will be good for small caps but I'll have to wait until at least Oct. as I moved to the G to wait out the 'volatility'.
Thought I'd 'lock in' some 'froth' but the market had other ideas.
At one point the Russell 2000 was up over 2.0%(yea!) and ended up .04%(boo).
Sometimes ya just gotta laugh. :nuts::nuts::nuts:

 

[tsptalk]

Can you imagine if the TSP allowed transactions during Fed decision days, right up to the market close? We'd be changing our minds every 20 minutes.

 

[exnavyew]

Can you imagine if the TSP allowed transactions during Fed decision days, right up to the market close? We'd be changing our minds every 20 minutes.

True dat.
Well back to my brokerage account.
Maybe pickup some 'discounted' Russell 2000.
Or should I short it?