Exnavyew's Account Talk

[exnavyew]

At the moment...at the moment, the futures market is acting like 'What? They cut the Fed rate .50%?'
A case of post Powell conference 'seller's remorse'? lol. :laugh:

Premarket Stock Trading Data: Dow, S&P, NASDAQ Futures

 

[exnavyew]

'Safely' sitting in the G-fund. :banghead:

 

[nasa1974]

'Safely' sitting in the G-fund. :banghead:

I almost pulled the trigger today to "G" fund. Tomorrow will be what it is. :wall:

 

[exnavyew]

Strap in!!!

[h=1]BofA now expects Fed to go for 75 bps in rate cuts in Q4[/h]BofA now expects Fed to go for 75 bps in rate cuts in Q4

 

[nasa1974]

Strap in!!!

BofA now expects Fed to go for 75 bps in rate cuts in Q4

BofA now expects Fed to go for 75 bps in rate cuts in Q4

Since this is the first rate cut since 2020 a .75 would seem awful aggressive. I'm no expert but a .25 after elections and another .25 the first of the year seems reasonable. Of course a government shutdown throws everything out the window.

 

[tsptalk]

I almost pulled the trigger today to "G" fund. Tomorrow will be what it is. :wall:

When is the last time you were not in the S-fund?

 

[tsptalk]

Since this is the first rate cut since 2020 a .75 would seem awful aggressive. I'm no expert but a .25 after elections and another .25 the first of the year seems reasonable. Of course a government shutdown throws everything out the window.

They had a correction:

(This story has been corrected to say that BofA expects 75 bps in cumulative rate cuts from the Fed in Q4, not a single rate cut, in paragraph 2, and fixes a typo in paragraph 7)

Fed to cut rates by 25bps in Nov and Dec, approach neutral level sooner- Reuters poll

 

[nasa1974]

When is the last time you were not in the S-fund?

Wow great question. It's been a long time. I guess I will have to research it.
I will have to make that move to "G" sooner than later. I turn 73 next year and I don't want to have to take money out of two different systems. So, I plan on moving my money out of my TSP account to my Edward Jones account.

 

[nasa1974]

When is the last time you were not in the S-fund?

I went back and looked. It was 2020 I dabbled in "F", "C" & "S" that year. Mostly "S" though. All "S" since late 2020 to present.
2020 31.17%
2121 12.45%
2022 26.26%
2023 25.30%
2024 so far 11.19%

 

[exnavyew]

I went back and looked. It was 2020 I dabbled in "F", "C" & "S" that year. Mostly "S" though. All "S" since late 2020 to present.
2020 31.17%
2121 12.45%
2022 26.26%
2023 25.30%
2024 so far 11.19%

FWIW:
Tom Lee of Fundstrat is saying small caps, especially Russell 2000, will do well thru 2025.
caveat, he says until the election there will be a lot of volatility.
From 1.45 to 2:10 of this video he talks about small caps.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OJ15Rc4sZ8

 

[exnavyew]

FWIW:

[h=1]Why the Fed may do another 'jumbo' cut[/h]Why the Fed may do another 'jumbo' cut

 

[TommyIV]

A higher reading of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) on Friday would end the idea of a half rate point in November. The Fed does not want to retrace its progress on inflation.

 

[exnavyew]

I've been in the Russell 2000 since April (in anticipation of the Fed rate cuts and so far so good) and with the rate cuts coming I think they will be good for small caps in late 2024 and into 2025....I hope!
This is NOT advice for anyone else.
There are FAR more capable people on this site than me. :smile:

 

[exnavyew]

Extreme FWIW:
Wednesday Tom Lee of Fundstrat said 'it's a coin flip' what the market will do until the election is over.
At about the 1:45 mark he shares that many investors and professional money managers that he's talked to believe that
we are already in a recession.
(Say what?)
And that Friday's core PCE needs to be better than expected to allay recession fears.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8VYXeDCgv68

 

[exnavyew]

Hope we have a good report. :dunno:

Just FYI:

[h=1]August PCE Report Forecasts Show More Good News on Inflation[/h]The Federal Reserve is seen as having room for continued rate cuts.

Frank Lee Sep 25, 2024

August PCE Report Forecasts Show More Good News on Inflation | Morningstar

 

[TommyIV]

The PCE has potential to shake this market out of its stalemate. But I think the bulls could benefit from even a moderate reading tomorrow. Lower inflation is better for consumers, but the market itself may be set up for an inflow of cash if the Federal Reserve cuts rate by 0.5% in November. Investors have been taking advantage of the high yielding (+4% and higher) money markets that offer essentially no risk, like the G-fund. Cash will leave those money markets as theirs yields drop alongside the Fed Fund rate. Most of it will likely land in the stock market as investors seek to replace those higher yields.

With that in mind, it may take particularly lull inflation data from the PCE to scare off the bulls that have kept the market elevated since last Thursday's rally.

The market saw two significant pullbacks at the turn of the last two months. They loom over stockholders' heads as we take on the last few days of September. There are also bulls outside of the market and on the sidelines anticipating this pattern to continue. A rally tomorrow would take some reevaluation of their re-entry. Some will buy into a rally despite the higher prices.

 

[exnavyew]

How inconsiderate! Don't they know we have jittery investors over here?


[h=1]China’s industrial profits plunge by 17.8% in August from a year ago[/h]China'''s industrial profits plunge by 17.8% in August from a year ago

 

[nasa1974]

How inconsiderate! Don't they know we have jittery investors over here?


China’s industrial profits plunge by 17.8% in August from a year ago

China'''s industrial profits plunge by 17.8% in August from a year ago

Just wait until the dock workers go on strike on the east coast October 1st.

 

[exnavyew]

Thar she blows!! :1244:

Prayers to all in the path of Helene.

Satellite video shows ‘potentially historic’ Hurricane Helene from space

(Note: link still seems to work)

Access to this page has been denied

 

[nasa1974]

Thar she blows!! :1244:

Prayers to all in the path of Helene.

Satellite video shows ‘potentially historic’ Hurricane Helene from space

(Note: link still seems to work)

Access to this page has been denied

Sister-in-law in Tampa. Earlier today she said things are good. Haven't heard anything since. Will have to ask in the morning.

Definitely prayers.