Exnavyew's Account Talk

[exnavyew]

Just FYI:

Dan Ives has created an AI ETF.
(IVES), seriously

Dan IVES Wedbush AI Revolution ETF (IVES)​

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IVES/

Inception date was June 3,2025 and thru yesterday was up 11%.

 

[exnavyew]

Who said what to 'crash' the market late in the day today?
Market didn't like what Powell had to say or something else?
Grrr.

 

[exnavyew]

On the bright side maybe Trump's latest 'trade shock' today will create another April buying opportunity
this August!!

 

[exnavyew]

On the bright side maybe Trump's latest 'trade shock' today will create another April buying opportunity
this August!!

Well zapping the global economy is one way to get the press to stop talking about
the Epstein files!!

Trump tariffs live updates: Trump outlines sweeping new tariffs for dozens of trade partners​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live...s-for-dozens-of-trade-partners-200619934.html

 

[exnavyew]

Odds of a fed rate cut:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

 

[exnavyew]

Odds of a fed rate cut:

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

'A gamechanger': Economists react to weak July jobs report as rate cut bets surge​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/a-ga...-report-as-rate-cut-bets-surge-161638670.html

Current odds of a Fed rate cut:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

 

[exnavyew]

Possible short term squeeze play?

Friday's Jobs Data Could Unleash A Dollar Short Squeeze Not Seen In Decades​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/fridays-jobs-data-could-unleash-023111229.html

 

[Jsthere4211]

On the bright side maybe Trump's latest 'trade shock' today will create another April buying opportunity
this August!!

Could be . Maybe in early September. At least 3/4 weeks . Only if I knew !

 

[exnavyew]

Odds of a Fed rate cut now at 95.9%!!
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html


And Tom Lee says 'buy the dip'.

Major analyst who forecast stocks' rally sends 3-word message to investors​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/major-analyst-forecast-stocks-rally-011257335.html

 

[tsptalk]

Odds of a Fed rate cut now at 95.9%!!
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Bank of America CEO says his economic team still thinks no cuts this year (not until next year.)

 

[exnavyew]

FWIW:

Tom Lee Says Fed's About To Pivot As Goldman Warns Of Largest Jobs Revisions Since 1968: 'Supportive Of Higher PE'​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/tom-lee-says-feds-pivot-003127974.html

 

[exnavyew]

Tom Lee predicting SP500 hitting 6500 to 6600 THIS MONTH (Aug 2025) !!??
Dude.
Excuse me while I reallocate my TSP STAT!!

 

[exnavyew]

FWIW:

Despite the FedWatch odds B of A says not so fast:
(IMHO: Not very scientific but it doesn't 'feel' like we'll get a rate cut.)
Maybe FedWatch odds are reflecting a hope/wish for a cut and aren't realistic?
If the current runup of the stock market runs into the reality of no cut in Sept.
things could get ugly.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Bank of America sees stagflation, not recession—and no rate cut this year. It’s because of 2 specific Trump policies​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/bank-america-sees-stagflation-not-183756049.html

 

[exnavyew]

I give up. Why did the futures just spike up on news of more inflation?

Better odds of a Fed rate cut perhaps?

CPI: New inflation reading creates dilemma for Fed over cutting rates in September​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cpi-...ver-cutting-rates-in-september-135039847.html

 

[exnavyew]

Crypto anyone?

3 million shares....pre-market!!!

BMNR
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/bmnr?mod=search_symbol

Crypto is having a breakout summer — and bitcoin isn't the reason​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cryp...r--and-bitcoin-isnt-the-reason-100009828.html

 

[exnavyew]

Inflation way up. Futures just dropped.
Looks like a 'red' day possible.

Maybe create some buying opportunities ala 'buy the dip'?

Inflation shock: Core producer prices hit 3-year high in July in 'head-scratching' inflation surge​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infl...ead-scratching-inflation-surge-123743239.html

 

[exnavyew]

Bank of America shares an eye-popping chart showing a potential stock-market bubble: 'It better be different this time'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-america-shares-eye-popping-030409713.html

 

[exnavyew]

Stocks 'on sale' today!!

 

[exnavyew]

Tom Lee sees SP500 6800-7000 by the end of 2025.
He's big on small caps and crypto and makes an interesting
comparison to the U.S. going off the gold standard in 1971
and crypto coming into it's own via the Genius Act etc.

Fundstrat's Tom Lee: Dovish Fed is a green light for equities, small caps​

 

[exnavyew]

FWIW:

Social Security and Medicare cuts are coming because the bond market will eventually bring Congress to its knees, economist says​

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/social-security-medicare-cuts-coming-180010724.html