Epic's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Good Morning....... just a couple quick vids that you may like showing that some of the market key players emphasizing a bit of overall general Caution moving forward.
Warren Buffett continues to sell off some of Berkshire assets, and Tom Lee is also equally concerned about a potential 7 to 10 percent pullback.
We shall see ............ :thinking: :dunno:



.
 
Just saw this. Any significance good or bad??? Lots of movement goin on. Shufflin things around and adding a few new players here and there.

SPnews.jpg

.​
 
Those stocks will go up, at least initially, as fund managers and S&P 500 related ETFs will have to add them accordingly.
 
Good Morning......
Since I don't do charts and or graphics anywhere near as well as the rest of you, I stole some from this article that just came out this morning that addresses the question on everyone's mind titled "A cut — and then what?". "The Federal Reserve is set to cut U.S. interest rates for the first time since the pandemic. History shows the state of the economy will play a crucial role in how markets respond."
Best of luck to everyone ! ! ! ! ! :D
Link (for all the words) >>>>> How markets could fare after first US rate cut

RUT1.PNG
RUT2.PNG
RUT3.PNG
RUT4.PNG
RUT5.PNG


..

 
YUMMMMM ! ! ! !
Fed Day AND National Cheeseburger Day all on the same day at the same time !!!!!!
I'd go make a bunch of burgers to celebrate if I could just afford some real ground beef :blink::laugh:.

CB3.png .
cefbc038a8286f0e73afeb73f2aa8b22.jpg



...
 
Can't remember the last time I've seen everything (except the VIX) that beautiful GREEN color. Just look at the Nikkei 225, up over 1000 points (at the moment). Could this all be because of the rate cut???? :dunno:
Also, will it last or do we sell off late day into tomorrow and the weekend? Whatever the case, it sure is a nice way to start the day. :D

Stock Market Futures - Investing.com

9-19-a.PNG
9-19-b.PNG
9-19-c.PNG


..
 
Good morning, so the only thing on my radar at the moment is that I'm hearing a lot of chit chat on the business channels this morning about the doc strike. With the rate cut last week and all the nice gains because of it, you kinda figure there needs to be a monkey wrench thrown in the middle of things. :laugh::worried:
Just off the top of my head, my understanding is they're demanding a 77% wage increase and also guaranteed no automation in the future. As of this moment they are saying that talks have stalled. I'll cut and paste a little something from this Connecticut opinion piece, along with the link.

There’s a storm brewing that may ruin your holidays.
On October 1 some 45,000 dock workers at 36 different U.S. East and Gulf Coast ports are expected to go on strike, shutting down almost half of all U.S. imports by sea. The effect of such a strike has been predicted to be “cataclysmic”, disrupting the global supply chain. Remember post-COVID when store shelves were empty, construction delayed, pharmaceuticals in short supply and auto production disrupted? Online orders were delayed and prices soared.
Even a one day strike would take five days to recover from. If a strike lasts a week, the cleanup would last until mid-November. If it drags on for a month, well, we don’t even want to contemplate that.

More HERE >>>>> Opinion: Dock workers might create an October surprise to really hate

.
 
That's a big raise request. Hopefully that's their high ball starting point because it seems unreasonable, unless they have been severely underpaid.
 
tsptalk said:
That's a big raise request. Hopefully that's their high ball starting point because it seems unreasonable, unless they have been severely underpaid.
Click to expand...

In the write up, he states:
The principles in this standoff are the International Longshoremen’s Assoc. (ILA) and the U.S. Maritime Alliance (USMX). The union hasn’t had a new contract in six years and is seeking an almost 80% wage boost.
ILA members make good money: $39 an hour, or just over $81,000 annually. But with benefits and overtime, some New York dockworkers can make $200,000, often working 100+ hours a week.

That's not horrible, but with the state of the economy right now and how everything has shot through the roof, I'm not sure what to think. It's all relative I guess. Most everyone's struggling.
I'm still dumbfounded at how I have to pay $4.99 a pound for a London broil on sale, that I used to be able to get for $0.99 a pound. That's how bad it's gotten, so is it fair? I'm not one to judge. :dunno:
 
This is still on my mind, but not everyone seems to be so concerned. Maybe I just worry too much ? ? ? ? :dunno:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/09/30/port-strike-what-to-expect/

Negotiations between longshoremen and port operators broke down in June and the two sides have barely been speaking. The current contract expires at midnight Monday.
Thousands of longshoremen are set to strike at ports along the East Coast and Gulf of Mexico beginning Monday at midnight, halting trade in a wide range of goods and disrupting the economy in the weeks before the presidential election.
A strike would affect products that are shipped in containers — everything from toys to medicine — along with cars and trucks at as many as 36 ports between Maine and Texas.
The 14 major ports covered by the union contract account for just over half of the nation’s container trade, a major part of the supply chains that connect the country to the global economy. But a strike won’t lead to an immediate economic calamity, analysts say.
:scratchchin::thinking::confused:

Swan2.jpg
 
Sounds like it's getting more serious (or being taken more seriously)... More:


Ports strike would leave Walmart, Ikea, Home Depot with few import options, union warns

Walmart, Home Depot, Ikea, Samsung, LG Electronics, and major automakers and auto suppliers, are among the top companies importing products into the East Coast ports where ILA union members have vowed to strike as soon as Oct. 1.

Some logistics experts say that importers will pursue options to divert trade to other ports, but ILA union reps tell CNBC solidarity with fellow Canadian and West Coast port union members will thwart any diverted vessels.

Hurricane Helene’s impact on the Southeast is already complicating efforts to divert cargo, and there is approximately $34.3 billion in trade currently en route to East Coast and Gulf ports.
Click to expand...
Ports strike threatens Walmart, Ikea, Home Depot imports


East Coast port strike: Truckers, rails scramble to move billions in cargo before ILA union midnight shutdown

Port strike: Truckers, rails scrambling before ILA union shutdown
 
Do we possibly see Congress or the President stepping in to push a potential strike out a few weeks?
 
nasa1974 said:
Do we possibly see Congress or the President stepping in to push a potential strike out a few weeks?
Click to expand...

I heard on the news this morning that Biden has said he will not interfere with the process. That's my understanding so far, although things change by the minute in this crazy environment. :blink:
 
So I saw WorkFE pointing out the new G-Fund rate for Oct: "G Fund Rate slips to 3.875% Gonna force my hand." and I kinda feel the same way. Under 4% sux, but it is what it is.
So, Sept. (supposedly the worst month for stocks) never really materialized. It wasn't that bad. Are we lagging??? Is October the NEW September?? With everything else that's going on right now in the world, who knows:dunno:, but at under 4% I need to start looking at options.
Looking at DBA's charts, all 3 (C, S, I) now have the dreaded RED circles, indicating a downward trend possibly starting, so I'll take note on that. It could reverse next week, so we'll see.

Yesterday ended up flat
CS10224.PNG

....and futures this morning are not great https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

fut10324.PNG

So, I'll keep an eye on what happens next week. If we crash, lets just get it over with so we can move forward.
I'd like to try maybe 5 to 10% in C or S (or maybe both) to see if that will make up for the G-fund decline. Then maybe slowly increasing that in anticipation of some sort of Santa Rally. I know it's a ways out, but just thinking ahead. :nuts:
Anyway, I'm sorry to see the G-Fund decline. Gotta look at thing again next week and make some choices on what to do. :worried:
https://www.tspfolio.com/tspgfundinterestrate
GfundOct.PNG

..
 
Just some more quick G-Fund observations for those (like me) slightly disappointed with the latest downturn of the current rate.
So they say: The G Fund rate is calculated by the U.S. Treasury as the weighted average yield of approximately 191 U.S. Treasury securities on the last day of the previous month.
Now I don't know all the 191 treasuries that they are referring to (wish I did), but I can find a handful and get an idea of the trend.
If I'm wrong on any of this, hopefully someone will correct me (please).
So from here > > > https://www.cnbc.com/bonds/ I can see some of these. If you click on any of these, it will pull up a chart. Most charts show a fairly big dip for September that account for the low G-Fund rate for October. BUT, most all charts that I checked show a nice rebound for October, so the November G-fund rate could well be back over 4%. I emphasize "could", because they calculate it on the last day of the month, so it only matters what they are on that day. Hopefully the rates continue to maintain and or rise till the end of the month. :D

For example, here's the 5 year and the 10 year:

T5yr.PNG . T10yr.PNG

Also, here's another interesting article >>>> https://wolfstreet.com/2024/10/09/b...-jumps-to-4-08-43-bps-since-monster-rate-cut/

Bond Market Smells a Rat: On Eve of CPI Inflation Data, 10-Year Treasury Yield Jumps to 4.08%, +43 bps since Monster Rate Cut

That's all I got. Have a great weekend everybody !!!! :nuts:





 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The stock market is battling some rough looking charts
Replies
0
Views
188
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - A positive reversal day will be tested by tomorrow's CPI
Replies
0
Views
151
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Holiday week follows 5-day win streak
Replies
1
Views
198
exnavyew
exnavyew
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Stocks pausing, small caps negative reversal?
Replies
0
Views
154
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Stocks rally but the Dow is in an 8-day losing streak?
Replies
1
Views
184
WorkFE
WorkFE
Back
Top