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ekatteng
Guest
Easting, the Neural Network Artificial Intelligence System still in the learning mode... I do have to posted as it is... Perhaps human common sense and interpretation most be applied... 
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ekatteng
Guest
Lalo, Thank you for your interest. For me, patience is the most important virture in trading. For others is wisdom and persistance... they all good virtures... This week our profit may be to way for the right opportunity to get into the I - Fund... buying low allow us to acquire more shares... and move to the G - Fund in at the right time allow us to cash our profits... Again, Thank you for your interest.
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ekatteng
Guest
charmed855, if the system gets out of syncronization... I will be the first one to let everyone to know in big and red bold letters... It seems that went I add October to the data base and re-run the year to date it changed from 10% wrong to 15% wrong... Let's say, November has 20 trading days 56% good on ups and down means 31% correct on ups and 25% correct on downs
6 ups will be called correct. 5 downs will be call correct. 29% safe means around 6 times it will asked to stay on the G and the I - Fund will go up... we will not profit from the gain but not lose any $$$... and 3 times it will asked to go to I - Fund and it will go down... like today... and we will loose $$$$ unless we develop a defensive human tecnique based on future outlook for the week... getting out asap or staying in I - Fund till it pull back up to the profit stage again... and till then continue following the Neural... but that is a personal call depending each one confortability...
I must post the Neural prognostics as it spits and also at the autotrack for performance statistics...
6 ups will be called correct. 5 downs will be call correct. 29% safe means around 6 times it will asked to stay on the G and the I - Fund will go up... we will not profit from the gain but not lose any $$$... and 3 times it will asked to go to I - Fund and it will go down... like today... and we will loose $$$$ unless we develop a defensive human tecnique based on future outlook for the week... getting out asap or staying in I - Fund till it pull back up to the profit stage again... and till then continue following the Neural... but that is a personal call depending each one confortability...
I must post the Neural prognostics as it spits and also at the autotrack for performance statistics... Ek, that IS unusual since you have actually been performing at the 65% level since the end of September. It sounds like your historical results are changing as you add more data points to the system. Are your historical year-to-date returns also changing?
Thanks for being open and honest about that particular aspect of your system.
charmed855
Member
Ek, thanks for the explaination. As I mentioned, your results in October were 65% correct therefore I still find it odd that once you add October results to your database that the projections would actually be worse than your previous claim (65%) and your October results.
That signals to me that you have a feedback loop that is impacting historical data. When you claim that your system is 65% correct, what you are really saying is that your system would be 65% correct if it knew what we now know one day, week, month or year later.
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ekatteng
Guest
Charmed855, I am planning to stay on the G fund and or move to the G fund as soon as possible and stay on the G fund the rest of the week or till neural give a I - Fund signal again... Thank you for your question and helping me to be more clarify.
charmed855
Member
Ek, thanks for the response. Good luck.
Wildboar53
Member
It seems even AI's are getting flustered with this market :laugh:.
Hang in there Ek, I am sure you can work this thru.
Hang in there Ek, I am sure you can work this thru.
Mr recognizer
Banned
get real people.....this AI neural system,ebb system,,rev etc just doesnt work....just pick an allocation you can live with and leave it at that....read some BOGLE...wise up and you ll be better off.. see how the neural man missed by a ton the last 2 days and ebb dropping like arock in the tracker... their luck and tahts what it is is running out...no one can predict the market....t6he index out performs 85% of active mgrs..so let it go and quit following some wild dream of bigger things ...it just dont work...pack your bags guru's..your time is up!
benitocj
Member
If I didn't know better, I would say you are quite disillusioned - that is swinging from one extreme to another
...what happened to your enthusiasm? 2 days, and you give up?! I thought you understood that 65% right, implies 35% wrong - maybe the 2 days were just among the 35% wrong.There are some people out there who claim that the market is random, which means that any system should have a hit of 50% under those circumstances. Anything more or less would show there is some form of pattern.
My simulations (and I mean a bit more advanced than crunching numbers in Excel) show otherwise - it is just a matter of how well equipped you are in terms of data mining technology and statistical tools, and how willing you are to think outside the box - I know my graduate professors would have failed me in my statistical methods classes for daring to come up with my own measure of fit
. My latest simulations showed a hit of 70% from end of Oct 2006 to Nov 2007. Don't dare shoot for more, but I will keep looking, who knows - one day I am going to find a model that does so badly, that when we play it contrarily we may just get the results we want
.
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ekatteng
Guest
Wildboar, I know... Monday and Tueday the AI's learned but after the fact... no good for our last two IFTs... but hopefully for the future ones...
SkyPilot
Well-known member
Wow! That's some volatility there Mr. R ! Just a few posts ago you were all "Ek's the man"! Did you lose a buck or two?
You blew in, you blew up, now I guess you'll blow out... It's okay, the Ek doesn't need you to cheer for him, and he doesn't need you slam him along with the other "guru's".
You blew in, you blew up, now I guess you'll blow out... It's okay, the Ek doesn't need you to cheer for him, and he doesn't need you slam him along with the other "guru's".
Griffin
Well-known member
LOL....well said!
kaitlinsnana
Member
Right on, right on, right on.
Gail
Gail
Steadygain
TSP Elite
EK, don't sweat it man - no system is perfect and in this environment only the extremely lucky come out ahead. Personally I have found over the years (this one included) that it is much more profitable to remain in the high risk (at least a few days) while the markets are flying. The past month or 2 are sporactic insanity, and as soon as I jump to G for safety I'll lose another 2% gain.
Anyway, I think your system proved itself in 10/07 and I'm still a believer.
Anyway, I think your system proved itself in 10/07 and I'm still a believer.
FUTURESTRADER
Active member
Moderators..please flush this annoyance!! It's bad enough we are getting skinned knees, we don't need this loose cannon too, that contributes nothing.
his actions should be looked upon as a learning experience...like bullit quotes...'don't let your highs get too high or your lows too low'...or something to that effect
the beginner, and sometimes the experienced, get caught up in the 'holy grail' 'golden egg' 'cash machine'.
Intrepid_Timer
Well-known member
Mr R, I agree with others that you are wrong here. Systematic trading is the only way to trade if you do indeed wish to trade. Not only will it come out ahead in the long run, it also keeps one's sanity in check. For example, for a one month period from July 18th to Aug 14th of this year, I lost 3.77% in my TSP. About 8% in my other investment accounts. However, for the months of both July (1.25%) and Aug (1.82%), I ended up in the black. This is opposed to the C funds returns of -3.10% and 1.54%, respectively.
Everybody losses eventually. The trick is have your winners outweigh your losers over time.
GL to you.
Griffin
Well-known member
Moderators..please flush this annoyance!! It's bad enough we are getting skinned knees, we don't need this loose cannon too, that contributes nothing.
Dennis,
What is happening in this thread is the result of an untested system and some unrealistic expectations, which is why I cautioned Ek so sternly from the beginning about excessive self promotion.
The concept of timing the market is too play the odds. This is very much like gambling except that the system is the house, the odds are in it's favor. How far are they in the house's favor? In this case, that is totally undetermined. In Ebb's case, he has consistently been successful in the long run. Mr. R does not get this but the buy and hold permabull philosophy is also an opinion held and promoted by Birchtree and many folks are appreciative of those comments.
Don't get mad when the system doesn't work today or tomorrow, but if it fails you in the long run, then do what you must.
Mr. R has the same right to his comment's as anyone else and the moderators do not control content, necessarily. Our purpose is to maintain civility, honesty and legality. Mr. R's comments may not be productive to you, but unless you can show that they are misinformation or they are inflammatory, we are not going to control the content. Mr. R is not the first person to exhibit anger becasue they missed on their timing and his comment was not far over the line.
SkyPilot
Well-known member
The best way to handle a Mr. R type may be to point out blatant inconsistencies, but avoid the potential to injure in a significant way.
In this way one can be held accountable, but without the unpleasantness of "flaming". I believe the goal is to rehabilitate.
When one learns that they cannot just spew forth without gaining the unwelcome scrutiny of the board, they are less likely to behave in a way that is recalcitrant.
Mr. R, you have great energy and enthusiasm... and if you are willing to be civil and even constructively critical, your comments will be welcome.
Should you continue to post in the manner in which you have since you began (and the board has extended to you great latitude in the early going) you will find that you have greatly exhausted the patience and forbearance that been allotted you up to this point. Let's go on from here, take our lumps, and enjoy the fellowship of mutuality.
In this way one can be held accountable, but without the unpleasantness of "flaming". I believe the goal is to rehabilitate.
When one learns that they cannot just spew forth without gaining the unwelcome scrutiny of the board, they are less likely to behave in a way that is recalcitrant.
Mr. R, you have great energy and enthusiasm... and if you are willing to be civil and even constructively critical, your comments will be welcome.
Should you continue to post in the manner in which you have since you began (and the board has extended to you great latitude in the early going) you will find that you have greatly exhausted the patience and forbearance that been allotted you up to this point. Let's go on from here, take our lumps, and enjoy the fellowship of mutuality.
