Economic News

Not much in the way of economic reports this week of Feb 5th. The most important report comes out on Thursday 2-8 Initial Claims and only rates a C+ for importance. I think what will overshadow any economic reports this week is who is speaking. On Tuesday Bernake speaks at 1:30 pm ET on the distribution of economic wealth. When he last testified to the Senate he expressed his concern that a gap was forming between the wealthy and middle class. Since the U.S. economy runs on the backs of the middle class you can see his cause for concern. Also speaking on Tuesday is Paulson who will testify on the FY 2008 budget and also speaking are Michael Moskow and Janet Yellen both Fed reserve Presidents. On Thursday both the BOE and ECB meet to determine interest rates for England and Europe. At the last meeting the BOE surprised everyone with a rate increase and should be expected to hold the line at this meeting.

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200706.html

After last weeks FMOC meeting earnings once again should take the spotlight with a whole slew of reports due out.

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm
 
ECONOMIC PREVIEW
Productivity seen rising in fourth quarter
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:25 AM ET Feb 4, 2007


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- More good news on the inflation front is expected in the very light calendar of economic data in the coming week.
The report on fourth-quarter productivity will be the highlight of the week, "if there is one," joked Warren Lovely, an economist for CIBC World Markets. Other indicators include the Institute for Supply Management's nonmanufacturing survey, consumer credit, and wholesale inventories. See Economic Calendar.
With gross domestic product rising a robust 3.5% during the quarter, productivity probably picked up to its fastest pace since the first quarter.
The data will be released on Wednesday at the Labor Department. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were calling for a 2.2% annualized gain in productivity after a dismal 0.2% gain in the third quarter.
Unit labor costs, which are a key inflationary gauge, should also improve markedly. The median forecast of the economists sees costs rising at a 2% annual rate, down from 2.3% in the third quarter. Unit labor costs are the difference between compensation growth and productivity growth.
Unit labor costs "should look a little friendlier for inflation," wrote Credit Suisse economists in their outlook.
For the year, productivity probably rose 2.2%, with unit labor costs up about 2.7%.
Productivity is one of the most important economic concepts. High productivity growth means the economy can grow rapidly without inflation, raising living standards and theoretically allowing workers to get big raises without hurting the boss's profits.
But a low rate of productivity growth can mean a sluggish economy and increased inflationary pressures.
In any given quarter, productivity will closely mirror gross domestic product growth. That's because productivity is simply output divided by hours worked.
Over a longer period of time, productivity trends will determine how fast the economy can grow.
The expected rise in fourth-quarter productivity "is actually a bit better than the sustainable trend," wrote David Greenlaw and Ted Wieseman, economists for Morgan Stanley.
Productivity averaged about 2.7% annually from 1948 to 1970, then slowed to 1.6% from 1971 to 1995. Since then, productivity has grown about 2.5% annually.
Productivity has slowed in the past few years. One of the big debates in the economy is whether that slowing is structural or related to the business cycle. If it's structural, Americans will have to get used to slower growth. If it's cyclical, then the long-term speed limit of the economy will stay above 3%.
 
ECONOMIC REPORT
Productivity jumps to 3% in fourth quarter
Unit labor costs rise 1.7%, below expectations

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/productivity-jumps-3-fourth-quarter/story.aspx?guid={88B55A96-2F4F-4203-AB8A-9D330CA885E6}&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo
 
ECONOMIC REPORT
Weekly initial jobless claims up to 311,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/us-initial-jobless-claims-up/story.aspx?guid={06F37F3D-82E4-45A7-ACB4-0D6C255866E4}&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo
 
European Central Bank holds key rate at 3.5%
ECB chief Trichet signals an interest-rate rise in March

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The European Central Bank on Thursday opted to hold its key interest rate at 3.5% for the third straight month, but gave a clear signal that streak would end next month.

The ECB, which sets interest rates in the 13 countries that use the euro as their currency, kept its key rate at 3.5%. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, also as expected, signaled that rates will climb in March.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={30584579-F07D-49BC-831E-FF505664496C}
 
HSBC warns U.S. bad debts on the rise
No. 3 global bank's bad-debt provisions well above forecasts

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/hsbcs-bad-debt-charge-top-10/story.aspx?guid={8FE57E15-3548-4816-BA2F-2DC8B57DFE2F}&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo
 
Here is our economic calendar for next week. We do have a couple of significant reports due out, Retail Sales for January is due out on Tuesday the 13th. Last month the report was positive and included Christmas sales. Forecast is 0.6% and the market is expecting 0.3%. Perhaps gift card sales will kick in and cheer investors. Also out on Friday is PPI reports. PPI includes energy cost which have been rising the first part of February, but was (if I recall) mild in January.

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200707.html

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

Not to be outdone, the earnings calendar is also busy this week. On Wed. Coca Cola and John Deere report, Thurs. Agelent & Barnes Group and Fri. Goodyear tire.

Not to be overlooked on Monday Ctrip.com reports, the Rev Sharks pick.

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm

It just wouldn’t be complete if we didn’t have some Fed speak this week. On Wed and Thursday Bernake will be speaking to the Senate Finance Committee. You know the trading floor will be listning.
 
December trade gap widens to $61.2 billion
U.S. deficit sets record in 2006 despite progress in fourth quarter

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={8DD649F8-A78B-4F53-8D39-15B6F6DD6983}

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The nation's trade deficit widened in December and swelled to a new annual record, a government report showed Tuesday.
The nation's trade gap widened by 5.3% in December, reaching $61.2 billion, the Commerce Department said. See full report.
Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the deficit to increase to $59.5 billion. See Economic Calendar.
The Commerce Department also cut slightly its estimate of the trade deficit slightly for November, to $58.1 billion from $58.2 billion previously. This was the lowest trade deficit since July 2005.
Economists expect fourth-quarter growth in U.S. gross domestic product to be revised lower to about 2.5% from the initial estimate of 3.5% based on other data for December.
The wider trade gap could add slightly to the downward revision. In the initial estimate, the improvement in foreign trade added 1.6 percentage points to growth in the fourth quarter
The higher deficit in December ends a string of three months of narrower deficits, which economists say was mainly caused by lower prices for imported oil.
Despite the improvement in September through November, for all of 2006, the U.S. trade deficit amounted to a record $763.6 billion, wider by 6.5% from 2005.
But in a sign that the trade gap could be stabilizing, the deficit accounted for 5.8% of GDP in 2006, the same percentage as in 2005.
Another sign of improvement was that exports rose faster than imports in 2006, the first time this has happened since 1997.
The trade gap with China rose to a record $232.5 billion last year, up from $201.5 billion in 2005. The U.S. also set record trade deficits with Japan and Mexico in 2006.
Handful of records fall in December
In December, imports rose faster than exports. As economists had forecast, imports of petroleum products rose sharply and exports of civilian aircraft declined.
Imports increased 2.1%, reaching $186.7 billion. December exports rose 0.6% to $125.5 billion.
Imports of goods alone rose 3.8% to $186.7 billion.
The U.S. imported a record amount of automobiles and auto parts and consumer goods.
Monthly exports of goods alone nose 0.4% higher to $89.4 billion, with the U.S. exporting a record amount of consumer goods.
The petroleum deficit widened 10.5% to a $20.7 billion in December.
The value of U.S. oil imports rose to $15.8 billion in December from $15.6 billion in November as the price of a barrel of oil rose to $53.84 from $52.25. The quantity of crude imports fell to 9.5 million barrels from 10.0 million in the previous month.
The deficit with China widened to $19.0 billion in December from $16.2 billion in the same month last year. The countries' trade gap stood at $22.9 billion in November.
Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.
 
Retail sales flat to begin the year
Excluding autos and gas, sales rose 0.5% in January

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...2585BE9-AFFD-4F69-B1A8-7A2593304E27}&dist=bnb

Seasonally adjusted retail sales were unchanged in January, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Sales excluding autos rose 0.3%.
Sales were up 2.3% compared with January of 2006, the slowest year-over-year growth since April 2003. The figures are not adjusted for price changes. Read the full government report.

The results were below expectations. The median forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch predicted headline sales would rise 0.6% and ex-auto sales would rise 0.5%. See Economic Calendar.

Sales in the previous two months were revised higher by a total of 0.1 percentage points. In December, total sales increased 1.2%, and 1.3% excluding autos.

In a post above I said the market was expecting 0.3% which was right on. We'll see what Mr. Market thinks about this today. I think the Bernake speak will overshadow most events.
 
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. industrial production fell 0.5% in January, the biggest drop since Hurrican Katrina struck the Gulf Coast in September 2005, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday. Capacity utilization fell sharply to 81.2% from 81.8%. The drops in output and capacity surprised economists, who were expecting production to fall 0.1% and capacity utilization to slip to 81.6%. Production is up 2.6% in the past 12 months. Manufacturing output fell 0.7% in January. Output of utilities rose 2.3% as cold weather returned after a warm start to the winter.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={B6F375F5-0AAC-43FA-997C-7378479D29E6}
 
ECONOMIC REPORT
New York factory activity rebounds sharply in Feb.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Manufacturing activity in the New York area in February rebounded after two straight soft months, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday.
The bank's Empire State general business conditions index rose to 24.4 in February from 9.1 in January. The index has slipped in December and January after peaking at 25 in November.
The increase was unexpected. Economists were forecasting the index to slip to 8.7, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={B75119A7-B575-4607-8D48-C6AB500FD7BF}
 
Capital flows to US reverse in December to outflow of $11B

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Monthly capital flows to the United States reversed in December to the first outflow in a year-and-a-half, the Treasury Department reported Thursday. Monthly capital flows reversed to an outflow of $11 billion in December compared to an inflow of $70.5 billion in November. In December, private investors sold $42.5 billion of securities. This was offset by $31.5 billion in purchases by official institutions. Net long-term capital inflows, meanwhile, fell to $15.6 billion in December from $84.9 billion in November. This is the lowest inflow since January 2002.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...83D40AF-6B15-4164-98EC-586DAC4B819E}&dist=bnb
 
THE FED
Bernanke faces skeptical Democrats

After delivering morning testimony identical to Wednesday's Senate appearance, Bernanke is expected face tough questioning about rising economic inequality in the United States, not to mention the Fed's dual mandate of maximizing employment and keeping prices stable.

On Wednesday, Bernanke helped to fuel market rallies, saying the Federal Open Market Committee expects core inflation to fall back below 2% next year. The FOMC expects modest growth and steady unemployment over the next two years

House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., took the unusual step of holding a two-day hearing on the semiannual monetary-policy report, with several critical economists scheduled to testify to the committee on Friday.

Frank has expressed his opposition to any move by the Fed to abandon its statutory goal of full employment in favor of an inflation target. Bernanke's known to favor an explicit inflation target, but he has not yet pushed the FOMC to adopt one.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bernanke-faces-skeptical-democrats/story.aspx?guid={D8788772-48E0-4B4C-9B7A-C5E621CBA91A}&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo
 
Home builders' confidence returns
Index rises to 40 in February, highest since last June

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home builders are still pessimistic, but are growing much more confident in the housing market, according to a monthly survey released Thursday by the National Association of Home Builders.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index rose to 40 in February from 35 in January. It's the highest since June 2006. The index had fallen to a 15-year low of 30 in September. A year ago, the index was at 56. The index has been below 50 for 10 months.

In the 1989-92 housing slowdown, the index was below 50 for 36 consecutive months; it took 18 months for the index to go from 40 to 50

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/home-builders-index-rises-highest/story.aspx?guid={4BE85B5D-50EC-45CC-863D-7EFC8E3357A3}&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo
 
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