Economic News

[Oldcoin]

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/170355/

This guy try’s to put the economic numbers together and how it relates to the economy. From what I’ve read he doesn’t like it when people ask stock market questions. Anyway, a lot of info, some doom and gloom scenarios, but it might help us keep informed.

 

[Oldcoin]

I think the S fund might be where it’s at, at least for now. Looks like a rotation is occurring between natural resources (oil, gas, metals) and it appears that the small cap is benefiting. Birchtree may have more info on this than me.

 

[Birchtree]

Professor Roubini has been on Kudlow many times lately and he continues to see a two quarter recession. He seldom says anything bullish - sticking to his guns regardless. It's like reading Peter Schiff - they lean a certain way no matter what the statistics.

 

[fabijo]

I've been pondering the significance of these news releases and market calendars. Do they really affect the market in the long term? Sure, there are a bunch of investors that only have these reports as gauges on the economy, but aren't there bigger investors who make their decisions with more reliable data?

 

[Oldcoin]

I've been pondering the significance of these news releases and market calendars. Do they really affect the market in the long term? Sure, there are a bunch of investors that only have these reports as gauges on the economy, but aren't there bigger investors who make their decisions with more reliable data?

I think they have significance for us in the short term, in that they can move the market for a day or two. It’s always good to know what’s coming up and what the potential impact could be. Seems to me that any impact a report has, good or bad, levels out in the near term. As Tom has pointed out on several occasions a big bounce from a report is often reversed in the next couple of days.

 

[fedgolfer]

today looks like there nothing in terms of earnings, but next week is another story:

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm

lots of financial companies kick off the week, could be fuel for some upside, Schlumberger is at the end, could be bad?!

 

[Oldcoin]

U.S. Sales Gain in December Is Biggest Since July (Update2)
By Shobhana Chandra

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Retail sales in the U.S. rose more than forecast in December, capping the strongest back-to-back gains in almost a year, as growing incomes and holiday discounts kept Americans shopping.
Sales rose 0.9 percent, the most since July, after a 0.6 percent increase in November that was less than previously estimated, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Sales excluding autos rose 1 percent, the most since January 2006, after gaining 0.7 percent in November.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atql7ELvRRGg&refer=home

 

[Oldcoin]

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200703.html

Here is next week’s economic reports calendar.

As Fedgolfer pointed out above we have lots of financials coming out in the next weeks. These could overshadow any impact that the economic reports may have. Nothing on the list rates an A for importance; however we do have PPI, CPI and Capacity Utilization due out during the week. These are all inflation indicators and trader will be looking to these to try and guess what the Fed will do with rates in the future.

 

[Oldcoin]

Professor Roubini has been on Kudlow many times lately and he continues to see a two quarter recession. He seldom says anything bullish - sticking to his guns regardless. It's like reading Peter Schiff - they lean a certain way no matter what the statistics.

I agree Birchtree, I think the guy is very “gloom and doom” and I noticed that he didn’t factor in globalization as a factor which could minimize or eliminate the recession he sees looming on the horizon.

 

[Oldcoin]

Who's Speaking ... Wednesday - Jan 17, 2007

1:00 PM ET : Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin to speak about housing prices in determining monetary policy, to the Forecasters Club, in New York. Audience Q&A expected.

2:50 PM ET : San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen to speak about the U.S. economic outlook at the Arizona Council on Economic Education speaker series, in Scottsdale. Audience, media Q&A expected.

Looks like a double whammy to me

 

[Fivetears]

N.Y. Fed manufacturing index falls in Jan
NEW YORK - Manufacturing in New York state slowed more than expected in January to the lowest since mid-2005. The New York Fed's "Empire State" general factory conditions index fell to 9.13 from a downwardly revised 22.19 in December. December's reading was originally reported at 23.13. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a January reading of 20.00. January's level was the lowest since June 2005, when the index bounced up to 8.94 from May 2005's minus 7.10, according to revised figures.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070116/bs_nm/usa_economy_nyfed_dc_1

 

[Fivetears]

U.S. investors send their cash packing.
Lured by red-hot gains in foreign markets, investors poured money into international stock mutual funds at a record-shattering pace in 2006. Investors flooded international stock funds with an estimated $150 billion last year. By contrast, $30 billion went to U.S. stock funds, and is the smallest since 2002. In November alone, $11.5 billion flowed to international funds. Meantime, funds that invest mainly in the USA saw an outflow of $169 million. Surging foreign stocks and a falling dollar have sent international funds flying, and investors are chasing the gains.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/funds/2007-01-16-funds-usat_x.htm

 

[Birchtree]

You two guys are putting out some good stuff - thanx a lot. You are helping me to remain creative and long.

I'm only chasing the market by default via DCA. The Mrs. is chasing the internationals and small caps by default also with her own DCA plan.

 

[Fivetears]

Just "Surf Sharing" Birch. Plus, the act of posting it all helps me retain the information a little better; kinda like note taking in class, and passing it to your buddies too.
We're Iced In in San Antonio; 33 degrees on my desktop taskbar

 

[weatherweenie]

Intel Fourth-Quarter Profit Plunges 39 Percent on Painful Price War, but Still Beats Estimates

SAN JOSE, Calif. (AP) -- Intel Corp.'s fourth-quarter profit plunged 39 percent as the world's largest chip maker endured a painful price war with much-smaller rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and continued to pay for a massive restructuring.
Still, Intel said Tuesday it sold record numbers of microprocessors and flash memory chips and the company managed to beat analysts' tepid expectations.
Intel said net income for the period ended Dec. 30 was $1.5 billion, or 26 cents per share, versus $2.45 billion, or 40 cents per share, in the same period a year ago.
Revenue for the quarter was $9.7 billion, down 5 percent from $10.2 billion a year ago.
Excluding one-time charges, Intel said it earned $1.7 billion, or 30 cents per share, beating analyst estimates. Analysts were expecting the company to earn 25 cents per share on $9.44 billion in revenue for the quarter, according to a survey by Thomson Financial.

 

[Oldcoin]

Ben Bernanke Speaks! Thursday - Jan 18, 2007
10:00 AM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to testify about long-term U.S. fiscal challenges to the Senate Budget Committee, in Washington .

Who's Speaking ... Thursday - Jan 18, 2007
8:00 AM ET : Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Sandra Pianalto to speak about the regional economy & economic outlook, in Dayton, Ohio. Audience Q&A expected.

7:15 PM ET : Federal Reserve Governor Susan Schmidt Bies to speak about the U.S. economic outlook and mortgage markets, at the University of Arizona, in Tucson. Audience Q&A expected.

Sources: A special thanks to Market News Int'l for providing the scheduling information for the speeches

Did I say double whammy for Wednesday?.......How about a triple for Thursday.

 

[Fivetears]

Stoking the Fires of Inflation
The Fed doesn't need help, but the Democrats already are putting logs on the fire. Democrat Barney Frank, the new chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, has served notice that he won't tolerate efforts by the Federal Reserve Board to forestall inflation, if such measures might curb employment numbers. Why should you be concerned? After all, inflation, we are told, has not been a threat since the late 1970s and early 80s. Depending upon what measure is used, inflation currently is running in the vicinity of 2% per year. That doesn't sound like much, but consider the effect on a family's savings over a 35 year working life.
http://www.magic-city-news.com/Thomas_Brewton_101/Stoking_the_Fires_of_Inflation7306.shtml

 

[Fivetears]

Federal Reserve Banks Announce New Studies to Examine Nation's Check and Electronic Payments Usage
Minneapolis - The Federal Reserve Banks today announced plans to conduct another round of studies to determine the current composition of the nation's retail payments market, including checks, credit and debit cards, and automated clearing house (ACH) transactions. These two studies will build on information gained from similar studies published by the Reserve Banks in 2001 and 2004.
http://132.200.33.130/boarddocs/press/other/2007/20070116/default.htm

 

[Fivetears]

...and Wednesday - Jan 17
1:00 PM ET : Federal Reserve Governor Frederic Mishkin to speak about housing prices in determining monetary policy, to the Forecasters Club, in New York.
2:50 PM ET : San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen to speak about the U.S. economic outlook at the Arizona Council on Economic Education speaker series, in Scottsdale.
5:30 PM ET : St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole to hold Q&A with reporters, in St. Louis, Missouri.

 

[Fivetears]

...and Friday - Jan 19
8:00 AM ET : Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker to speak at the Risk Management Association annual U.S. economic outlook breakfast, in Richmond, Virginia.
1:15 PM ET : Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig to speak about the U.S. economic outlook, in Kansas City, Missouri.