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Industrial Production rose 0.4% in December (consensus 0.1%), while Capacity Utilization held relatively steady at 81.8% (consensus 81.7%).
 
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Consensus Notes
The consumer price index was unchanged in November, following a 0.5 percent decline in October. The core CPI also was flat in November, following a 0.1 percent rise in October. However, the headline CPI is likely to see a reversal in the wrong direction from December's firming in oil prices - which, of course, have reversed again in the New Year. So, the markets will be discounting any firming in the CPI from oil price spillover effects and will give more attention to the core rate. We have seen notable softening over the last few months but the tight rental markets suggest that it may be too good to be true - at least for the housing component. Motor vehicles sales picked up in December and it will be interesting to see how much of the pick up in sales was due to discounting.

CPI Consensus Forecast for December 06: +0.5 percent
Range: +0.3 to +0.6%

CPI excluding food & energy Consensus Forecast for December 06: +0.2 percent
Range: +0.1 to +0.3%
http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/cpi/year/2007/yearly/01/index.html
 
Housing Starts Consensus Notes
Housing starts rebounded 6.7 percent in November, following a 13.7 percent drop in October. November's gain occurred despite still too high inventories to sales for both existing and new homes for sale. Most likely the November firming in starts was somehow a seasonal aberration, given that pending home sales have not yet strengthened to give homebuilders enough confidence to boost speculative building and current demand simply is not yet on the upswing - though it might be in a few months.

Housing starts Consensus Forecast for December 06: 1.59 million-unit rate
Range: 1.50 million to 1.62 million-unit rate
http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/housing_starts/year/2007/yearly/01/index.html
 
Initial Jobless Claims Consensus Notes
Initial jobless claims plunged 26,000 in the week ending January 6 to a 5-1/2 month low of 299,000. The shortened holiday week likely was the key reason for the drop. A technical rebound is expected. The main question is by how much? Initial claims need not exceed a rebound of much over 30,000 to keep the view that the labor market is still strong.

Jobless Claims Consensus Forecast for 1/13/07: 315,000
Range: 290,000 to 320,000
http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports/US/EN/New_York/jobless_claims/year/2007/weekly/03/index.html
 
Philadelphia Fed Survey Consensus Notes
The general business conditions component of the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey index fell to minus 4.3 in December from 5.1 in November. The Philly Fed index generally has been weaker than other regional manufacturing indexes in recent months. Both new orders and backlogs were negative last month and suggest further weakness ahead in the overall business conditions index.

Philadelphia Fed survey Consensus Forecast for January 07: +5.0
Range: -7.5 to +10.0
http://fidweek.econoday.com/reports...hia_fed_survey/year/2007/yearly/01/index.html
 
Reminder: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke steps up to bat against the Washington Senate Budget Committee, in the Long Term U.S. Fiscal Challenge Pennant.

Game time is 10AM EST tomorrow in Washington. Bring your gloves.
 
Foreclosure rates up big in December
NEW YORK - Americans continue having difficulties paying their mortgage obligations, with December foreclosure rates above the 100,000 mark for the fifth straight month. The number of homeowners entering into some stage of the foreclosure process in December was 109,652, down 9 percent from November but up 35 percent from December 2005.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/16/real_estate/December_foreclosures_up_from_2005/index.htm
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={47AAB360-ABA7-4E54-867C-9B89C9D7A6A5}

ECONOMIC REPORT
CPI rises 0.5% on higher energy costs
Core rate increases 0.2% as expected

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Led by higher gasoline, clothing and tobacco prices, U.S. consumer prices rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in December, the first increase since August, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI rose 0.2% in December, the biggest increase in three months.
The increases in the CPI and the core CPI were exactly as forecast by the median estimate of economists surveyed by MarketWatch
 
Consumer Sentiment (p)
Definition
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey. Why Investors Care

Released on 1/19/07 For Jan 2007
Sentiment Index, Level
Actual 98.0
Consensus 92.5
Consensus Range 91.0 to 94.0
Previous 90.2

Highlights
Economic data have been firming and now so has consumer sentiment as the University of Michigan's index jumped sharply to 98.0 at mid-month from 91.7 in December. Gains were centered in the expectations component, a major plus that points to further gains in the months ahead. Inflation expectations, thanks to stable gas prices, held steady at 3.0% vs. December's 2.9%. Treasuries slipped and the dollar firmed in initial reaction to the results.

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html
 
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200704.html
http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

Here are two sources for our economic calendar next week. Fairly quite week with none of the reports rating greater than a B for importance.

We will continue to have a slew of companies reporting this week as in last week.

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm

and president of the SF Fed Reserve Bank talks on Monday. I did some quick research on her and if she comes out hawkish on inflation it would be a surprise.

Who's Speaking ... Monday - Jan 22, 2007
3:20 PM ET : San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen to speak about the U.S. economic outlook, in Reno, Nevada. Audience, media Q&A expected .

Is considered by many on Wall Street to be an Inflation Dove (as concerned with economic growth as inflation) as such is less likely to advocate Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, as compared to William Poole (St. Louis Fed President) an Inflation Hawk
 
A busy week for the calendar begins quietly, turning Monday's attention to earnings. Ones to watch include copper miner Phelps Dodge, drug maker Schering-Plough, and telecom provider Verizon.

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Private/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/EarningsCalendarWeek2.htm

Our Economic Calendar for next week:

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/econodayframe.asp?page=http://www.nasdaq.com/econoday/index.html

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200705.html

Rated an A for importance, the Employment Report is due out Thursday 2-1. Also coming out this week is the Chicago PMI and Construction spending on 1-31.

Of lower importance are Auto and Truck Sales, the market expects about the same numbers from the prior month.
 
The FOMC is meeting 1-30 and 1-31. Most indications are that they will hold the line. Indicators have shown that inflation is not in line with what they are comfortable with, but it looks like they want the rate hikes to impact prior to any further moves up or down.
 
U.S. Jan. consumer confidence index rises to 5-year high

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...98CE056-F8C4-43CA-B002-8625274E7A07}&dist=bnb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A gauge of U.S. consumer confidence inched higher in January, pointing to "moderate" improvement in the first half of the year, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The consumer confidence index rose to 110.3 in January from a revised 110.0 in December, the private research organization said. It's the highest since May 2002. Economists were looking for an increase to about 111.0. Consumers were more upbeat about the present situation, primarily because of a more favorable job market, said Lynn Franco, head of the consumer research center at the organization. Attitudes about the future declined. "All in all, the index suggests a moderate improvement in the pace of growth in early 2007," Franco sa
 
ECONOMIC REPORT
GDP surges at 3.5% rate in fourth quarter
Consumer prices fall for first time in 45 years


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy shook off a summer slump and surged ahead at a faster-than-expected 3.5% annual growth rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday.
Fed by robust consumer spending, a drop in energy prices and big turnaround in the trade balance, the economy notched its highest growth in a year, offsetting the drag of the weak housing and auto sectors. Read the full government report.
The 3.5% growth rate was much stronger than the 2% recorded in the third quarter, and handily beat the 3% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gdp-surges-35-rate-fourth/story.aspx?guid={41F171BC-99E6-4182-BF9F-38D16B244B2C}&siteid=myyahoo&dist=myyahoo
 
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