Economic News

Fed holds rates steady, stays inflation-wary
WASHINGTON - The U.S. Federal Reserve held benchmark interest rates steady at 5.25 percent for a fourth straight meeting, while renewing a warning that risks from inflation remain. In a statement outlining its decision, the Fed said it continues to focus on inflation risks, holding out the prospect that interest rates may need to move higher in coming months, even as it took note of the "substantial" cooling in the U.S. housing market. Financial markets did not react sharply to the Fed's statement, which was largely as expected. U.S. stocks pared losses, prices for U.S. government bonds rose slightly and the value of the dollar slipped. The decision was not unanimous. As he had at the previous three meetings, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker dissented, saying he believed higher borrowing costs are needed to keep inflation in check. Lacker's string of dissents is the longest by a Fed policy-maker since then-Cleveland Fed President Jerry Jordan dissented four straight times in 1998. U.S. output grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter, slowing from 2.6 percent in the second quarter and 5.6 percent in the first three months of the year. Many economists see the U.S. long-term trend growth rate at around 3 percent. While Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues have said higher-than-desired core inflation is a worry, they expect it to ease as slower growth pushes up unemployment. A slowdown in housing is expected to dampen consumer spending. Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, said sales at its U.S. stores open at least a year fell 0.1 percent from November 2005, the first decline since April 1996.

So far, however, the economy has proven resilient.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061212/bs_nm/usa_fed_rates_dc_2
 
Trade figures boost US economy
The US trade deficit narrowed more than expected in October, the latest figures showed, giving a significant boost to the economy. Rising exports of business and financial services helped cut the trade deficit to $58.9bn from $64.3bn in September, while the falling price of foreign oil reduced the value of imports. The evidence of sustained US export growth points to continued economic expansion in the fourth quarter even as domestic demand moderates. However, the politically sensitive deficit with China continued to widen, rising $1.4bn to $24.4bn in October. This increase puts the deficit with China on track to beat last year’s record of $202bn. The signs of an increased trade imbalance with China come as a high-level US delegation heads to Beijing for a “strategic economic dialogue”. The delegation is being led by Hank Paulson, Treasury secretary, and will press Beijing to take steps that ease the record trade gap. US manufacturers want the delegation – which also includes Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke – to press Beijing to let China’s currency appreciate. US manufacturers blame currency manipulation by policymakers in Beijing for fuelling cheap exports by their Chinese competitors. The delegation is also expected to seek greater access to China’s financial services market for US banks, brokerages and insurance companies.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/3f9f6440-89f2-11db-ae27-0000779e2340.html
 
Mortgage applications hit one-year high
Refinancings and purchase loan volumes soar alike
Applications, encompassing both those for loans to purchase homes and for refinancings of existing mortgages, increased 11.4% last week to the highest level since October 2005. Total applications are up 22.2% compared with the same week a year ago. Application volumes had been down by double-digit percentages for most of the year. Applications for a loan to buy a home rose 8.7% last week compared to the previous week, reaching the highest level since January. Purchase loan volumes are down about 3% compared with the same week a year ago, the smallest year-over-year decline since January. By comparison, home sales are down about 14% compared with a year ago. The refinancing boom continued last week: Applications for refinancings rose 15.8% to the highest level seen since September 2005. Refi applications are up about 60% from a year ago. Refinancings accounted for 52.6% of all applications, representing the greatest share since April 2004. Lower mortgage rates have spurred a new refinance boom as borrowers flock to lock in lower rates or to get out of adjustable loans that are about to be reset at higher rates. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.02% from a 14-month low of 5.98% the previous week. Since June, the benchmark rate's fallen from 6.86%. The rate for a 15-year fixed-rate loan, a popular vehicle for refinancing mortgages, averaged 5.75%, up from 5.66% a week earlier, which was the lowest rate since January. The average rate for a one-year adjustable-rate mortgage dropped to 5.76%, the lowest rate since March and down from the prior week's 5.79%. ARMs accounted to 24.9% of loan applications, up from a three-year low of 23.9% set the previous week.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...EC-0726-4CBC-AB5F-C804350A3BB3}&dist=morenews
 
U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall to 304,000
Initial jobless claims dropped by 20,000 to 304,000 in the week ending Dec. 9, government figures showed. Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of new claims fell by 1,500 to 327,250, according to the data. Initial claims are down 5% versus year-ago levels. Economists consider the four-week average a better indicator of the labor market because it smoothes out one-time events like holidays, weather and strikes. The higher-than-expected number helped to send Treasury prices lower.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={C177ACF5-CAC5-4D02-AFF8-4C41AE57F085}
 
Big business sees steady growth
WASHINGTON - U.S. economic growth will remain steady in the next year as inflation moderates, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce forecast on Thursday, brushing aside concerns that the downturn in housing could spark a full-blown recession. Predicting a steady improvement in the current pace of growth over the first half of next year, chief economist Martin Regalia said that those fearing the worst were more interested in grabbing news headlines than delivering sober analysis. "All in all, we've got an economy that is continuing to grow, that is continuing to create jobs, that is continuing to create income growth," he said. One reason for this confidence was the resilience of the U.S. consumer, who has kept on spending despite an overall decline in U.S. house prices.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061214/bs_nm/usa_economy_chamber_dc_1
 
http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200651.html

Here is our economic calendar for next week. Nothing quite as exciting as last week, but housing starts and building permits will let us see if the bubble is bursting or leaking air. Those reports rate a B- in importance. Crude inventories could be a market mover. Durable orders on Friday also shed light on the health of the economy. They rate a B.
 
Consumer inflation stays docile in Nov.
WASHINGTON - Inflation stayed docile in November for a third straight month, helped by falling energy prices and lower costs for everything from new cars and airline tickets to food and clothing. The Labor Department reported that its closely watched Consumer Price Index was unchanged following sharp declines of 0.5 percent in September and October. The good news on inflation reflected a big retreat for gasoline and other energy prices, which are down from the record highs set this summer. Economists were also encouraged by the widespread declines in other areas, saying they provided strong evidence that the slowing economy was helping to lower inflation pressures, just as the Federal Reserve had hoped.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061215/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy_34
 
Trade deficit hits high on oil prices
WASHINGTON - Pushed up by soaring oil prices, America's trade deficit surged to a record high in the summer, but analysts predicted a slowly improving imbalance in the months ahead. The current account trade deficit increased 3.9 percent to an all-time high of $225.6 billion in the July-September quarter, the Commerce Department reported Monday. That third-quarter deficit was equal to 6.8 percent of the total economy, up from 6.6 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter. The current account is the broadest measure of trade because it tracks not only the flow of goods and services across borders but also investment flows. It represents the amount of money that must be borrowed from foreigners to make up the difference between imports and exports.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/economy

and more... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061218/bs_nm/usa_economy_dc_1
 
Stores count on holiday procrastinators
NEW YORK - With Dec. 25 only a week away, many stores are finding themselves in the perennial position of counting on procrastinators to meet their sales goals, despite early reports of solid sales this past weekend. With some exceptions, stores have generally stuck to planned discounts throughout the holiday season, not buckling to pressures from shoppers who are waiting for the best deals. That's good news for retailers' fourth-quarter profits. But it also makes it more nerve-racking as merchants wait for the big sales surge. After pulling in better-than-expected crowds on Black Friday, the start of the holiday shopping season, shoppers have been returning to stores at a slower-than-expected pace after a post-Thanksgiving lull.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061218/ap_on_bi_ge/holiday_shopping_3
 
Summer’s Economic Growth Is Revised Downward
The economy grew at a more sluggish pace this summer than the government first reported, advancing by the smallest amount so far this year. The Commerce Department reported today that the nation’s output of goods and services grew at a 2 percent annual rate from July through September. The department’s earlier estimate for the period, issued last month, was 2.2 percent. After roaring along at a 5.6 percent annual rate in the first quarter, growth in the gross domestic product has slowed considerably this year, falling to 2.6 percent in the second quarter and now 2.0 percent in the third. Economists now expect the fourth quarter to be no better. The biggest reason for the slowdown has been the deflating housing market. In the third quarter, the slowdown in residential construction subtracted 1.2 percentage points from the overall growth rate. That was slightly more than the government first reported, and reflected the sharpest decline in building activity in 15 years. Slower consumer spending on services and a rise in imports also contributed to the downward revision to third-quarter G.D.P. that was announced today. Whether economic growth will slow so much that the Federal Reserve would consider lowering interest rates is far from clear. Many investors and economists are expecting the central bank to start reducing rates sometime in the first half of 2007, but the Fed has so far sounded a hesitant and cautionary note on growth, while keeping its attention mainly on lingering threats of inflation. Today’s report showed that price increases, too, may be starting to cool. A broad measure of inflation that is closely watched by the Fed, known as the core personal consumption expenditure index, rose 2.2 percent in the third quarter, compared with a 2.7 percent rise in the second quarter. The Fed considers any reading over 2 percent to be too high for comfort. Separately, the Conference Board reported that its index of leading indicators ticked upward by a modest 0.1 percent in November, a suggestion that only tepid economic growth at best can be expected in the next few quarters.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/21/b...72db9b9cfe8b&ei=5089&partner=rssyahoo&emc=rss
 
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={F3107E9D-911C-44F8-BEB5-7183626C4B9A}

Bernanke on tightrope in 2007
Economists see Fed's rate-hike pause lasting for another six months

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Dec 22, 2006

Interesting…..I’ve seen some talk of reducing rates in the first part of ’07. I think the fed is more worried about inflation than markets. So a pause for 6 or more months is not unthinkable and another increase is not out of the question.
 
Here is our economic calendar for next week.

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200652.html

Two reports the Consumer Confidence and Chicago PMI could be market movers. The Chicago PMI has about the same impact as this weeks Phili Fed report. This week that report spooked the market some.

I like to wish everyone on the board a Very Merry Holidays and a prosperous 2007.
 
U.S. Nov. new-home sales rise 3.4% to 1.047 mln pace

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...EF67CF2-A345-4D17-A8DC-5A3F14843941}&dist=bnb

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of new homes rose 3.5% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.047 million, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Sales are now down 15.3% in the past year. October's sales pace was revised to 1.013 million, from an earlier-estimated 1.004 million. The median sales price of a new home rose to $251,700 from $243,800. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting sales to rise to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.02 million from the previous 1.00 million.

Most market analysis were expecting a small drop in new sales. This is surprising development, should be a market mover today. :D
 
Chicago PMI is released today and could be a market mover.

I just heard a trader on the floor say that they had a buy program in place if the numbers were good.

As he said, “This time good news is good and bad news is bad.”
 
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