Economic News

[Oldcoin]

http://tinyurl.com/3cdxws

ECONOMIC REPORT
Jobs grow by 57,000 in February, ADP says
Weakest private-sector hiring since July 2003, survey says

This is the ADP index, the Governments report will be out on Friday, however it is used as an indicator of how Fridays report will turn out.

 

[Oldcoin]

Economic Monitor – Weekly Commentary
by Dr. Scott Brown

Shanghaied and Greenspanned?

http://www.raymondjames.com/monit1.htm

The stock market fell. Round up the usual suspects. Comments from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan? Check. A plunge in the Chinese market. Check. Poor economic data. Check. An unwinding of the yen-carry trade. Check. However, the reason for last week’s stock market troubles wasn’t that things have gotten riskier. Rather, it’s a change in the perception of risk.

Kinda a counterpoint to Nourie Roubini.

 

[Oldcoin]

Greenspan says carry trade should turn at some point

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070307/bs_nm/markets_forex_yen_greenspan_dc_1

Oh that Greenspud…..he’s such a wild and crazy guy

 

[nnuut]

Greenspan says carry trade should turn at some point

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070307/bs_nm/markets_forex_yen_greenspan_dc_1

Oh that Greenspud…..he’s such a wild and crazy guy

There he goes again, for a old guy he has a really big mouth!:nuts: He could be right you know!

 

[Oldcoin]

Tried to post an image of greenspud....never mind.

 

[Oldcoin]

Fed spies signs of slower growth

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070307/bs_nm/usa_economy_dc_1

Beige book highlights.

 

[350zCommTech]

Everybody and their mother, including Greenspan, are saying that the housing slump has bottomed. And today we get this:


D.R. Horton CEO: '2007 is going to suck'

No. 1 U.S. homebuilder sees further write-offs due to unsold homes, lower value lands; expects '08 to be better.

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- D.R. Horton Inc., the largest U.S. homebuilder, expects homebuilders' pricing power to return by January 2008, after the hard-hit industry works its way through inventory of unsold homes, the company's chief executive said Wednesday.
"I don't think '08 is going to be a great year, but it's going to be much better than '07," CEO Don Tomnitz told the Citigroup Industrial Manufacturing Conference.

He also said: "'07 is going to suck."

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/07/real_estate/dr_horton.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007030717

 

[The_Technician]

There he goes again, for a old guy he has a really big mouth!:nuts: He could be right you know!

he could be short on the market .....

 

[Oldcoin]

D.R. Horton CEO: '2007 is going to suck'[/B]

Yeah the home builders really have to be hurting right now, and I don’t think we’ve bottomed out yet. I’d listen to this guy before many of the spin Dr’s.

What I’m concerned about is the collateral damage; the recession in housing has got to have a negative effect all across the economy. With dropping home values no second mortgages to buy all the pretty things that we Americans love. So the overall impact could ripple through the economy for quite awhile.

 

[Oldcoin]

U.S. Employers Probably Added Fewest Jobs in 2 Years Last Month

By Joe Richter

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Job growth in the U.S. was probably the weakest in two years last month as the economy struggled to overcome weakness in housing and manufacturing, economists said before a government report today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=asUmghBMrg7w&refer=economy

Maybe a preview for the jobs report due out tomorrow.

 

[Oldcoin]

Economy added 97,000 payroll jobs in February

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070309/bs_nm/usa_economy_jobs_dc_1

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy added a slightly weaker-than-expected 97,000 jobs in February, the smallest gain in more than two years, as increases in service-sector employment offset declines in construction and manufacturing, a government report showed on Friday.

Well this is a pleasant surprise. Seems I’m frequently surprised I would guess that we will not be testing prior lows today.

 

[tsptalk]

Well this is a pleasant surprise. Seems I’m frequently surprised I would guess that we will not be testing prior lows today.

OldCoin,
I respect your opinion on this. What is the surprise, February's 97K or the upward revision to January's numbers (111K to 146K)?

It seems like a mixed bag. The 97K (estimates aside) is a very low number (lowest in 2 years) which is not great for a growing economy but good for the odds of a near future rate cut from the Fed. The revision tells us that maybe the economy is not slowing as much as thought, but also takes some steam out of the rate cut argument.

It's a little confusing to me and I'm not sure what makes it more good than bad, or vice versa. So I don't see how this will help the market avoid a test of the lows.

Thanks in advance.
Tom

 

[Oldcoin]

OldCoin,
I respect your opinion on this. What is the surprise, February's 97K or the upward revision to January's numbers (111K to 146K)?

Thanks in advance.
Tom

Actually I was expecting a lower number than what the market expected. Yeah the number is still low but like you said it has been revised upward in the past. My thinking was that the February weather had put a negative pressure on jobs growth. Still I think we’ll have to look under the hood of the jobs report to get a better idea at what the report is telling us. I would have to agree, the economy has not slowed as much as thought. With the global economy maybe the Fed interest adjustments just aren’t as effective as they were in the past.

My comment about not testing the lows today was just that the jobs report would not be the impetus for any significant change today. I do agree with you that the market will retest the lows.

 

[Oldcoin]

ECONOMIC REPORT
Wholesale inventories rebound in January
But sales fall as petroleum's weak, declining by 11%


http://tinyurl.com/2ymjby

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. wholesalers' inventories bounced back in January, more than reversing a December decline that economists thought would position the economy for strong growth in the months ahead.
Wholesale inventories rose by 0.7%, the Commerce Department reported Friday, following an unrevised drop of 0.5% in December.
In the past 12 months, wholesale inventories are up 9.2%.

 

[350zCommTech]

OldCoin,
I respect your opinion on this. What is the surprise, February's 97K or the upward revision to January's numbers (111K to 146K)?

It seems like a mixed bag. The 97K (estimates aside) is a very low number (lowest in 2 years) which is not great for a growing economy but good for the odds of a near future rate cut from the Fed. The revision tells us that maybe the economy is not slowing as much as thought, but also takes some steam out of the rate cut argument.

It's a little confusing to me and I'm not sure what makes it more good than bad, or vice versa. So I don't see how this will help the market avoid a test of the lows.

Thanks in advance.
Tom

Tom,

It's all BS IMO. Just look at the data for yourself. The report showed the private sector added 58K jobs, which was inline with the ADP report. The surprise came in the number of Government jobs added and the 4.5% unemployment. In the report, the government added 39K jobs for a total of 97K. If you look at previous months' data(or all of last year), you will see that the government, on average, adds about 22k jobs. So, 39K was almost double what the government normally creates. That to me is surprising. As for the 4.5% unemployment, that too was a surprise because the "cold" weather. Also jobless claims were rising.

Here's the link to the data:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t14.htm

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks for your reply OldCoin. Looks like the market is also trying to sort it out. Was the bond market wrong to let rates go so low? The Fed either has to ease or bond yields need to go higher. Any thoughts?

 

[tsptalk]

Thanks 350. That sounds about right. The market reaction seemed a little odd to me.

 

[350zCommTech]

Thanks for your reply OldCoin. Looks like the market is also trying to sort it out. Was the bond market wrong to let rates go so low? The Fed either has to ease or bond yields need to go higher. Any thoughts?

IMO, the Fed will not ease until we get a negative jobs number. They will try to paint a rosy picture for as long as they can for obvious reasons. We all know that raising rates is out of the question, especially with the housing bust. When they do lower rates, the dollar will fall hard. And we all know what that will do to the Yen carry trade.

 

[Oldcoin]

screwed up 350Z quote, I'll try again.

 

[Oldcoin]

Tom,

It's all BS IMO. Just look at the data for yourself. The report showed the private sector added 58K jobs, which was inline with the ADP report. The surprise came in the number of Government jobs added and the 4.5% unemployment. In the report, the government added 39K jobs for a total of 97K. If you look at previous months' data(or all of last year), you will see that the government, on average, adds about 22k jobs. So, 39K was almost double what the government normally creates. That to me is surprising. As for the 4.5% unemployment, that too was a surprise because the "cold" weather. Also jobless claims were rising.

Here's the link to the data:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t14.htm

In my agency with the Government hiring has been very slow because we were on a continuing resolution. With the rollover of the budget from 06 into 07 it appears to have loosened up a bit, but you would think that would impact the numbers next month.

The change in the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 4.5% was not a real significant change, but it was reported that the drop was caused by discouraged job seekers. I hope this isn’t a trend that's going to expand into the future.