ebbnflow
Ebbchart
Too funny. Consider it a rite of passage. To where...I dunno, yet. :cheesy:
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Ebb's Account Talk
- Thread starter ebbnflow
- Start date
Too funny. Consider it a rite of passage. To where...I dunno, yet. :cheesy:
coolhand
Well-known member
Question of the week:
Do you consider technical analysis predictive or reactive? Folks seem to be divided on this.
Level of experience may be a big determining factor on how one views TA. I've been at of a few year now, but some technicians I watch (who have much more experience) amaze me sometimes as they can be highly predictive.
When I apply technical analysis, I often take into account other factors like sentiment, liquidity, etc., which helps me frame the analysis within a bigger picture. I try to keep things in context that way.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
Unofficial results for today:
S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.72%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.72%; EFA (I-fund): +1.26%.
Monday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.70% for the I-fund (no FV tonight).
TNA: +1.97% (YTD: +34.05%). TNA using the ebbchart patterns (YTD): +39.35%.
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.72%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.72%; EFA (I-fund): +1.26%.
Monday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.70% for the I-fund (no FV tonight).
TNA: +1.97% (YTD: +34.05%). TNA using the ebbchart patterns (YTD): +39.35%.
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
You must have been blinded by the charts. Try squinting your eyes at first, then prepare yourself for...when the light hits your eye, like a big pizza pie, that's amore. Bells will ring, ting-a-ling-a-ling, ting-a-ling-a-ling and you'll sing... :laugh:
Seriously, a daily ebbchart pattern consists of red and green signals. Pattern 1 is green-green-green, pattern 2 is green-green-red, pattern 3 is green-red-red, pattern 4 is green-red-green, pattern 5 is red-red-red, pattern 6 is red-red-green, pattern 7 is red-green-green, and pattern 8 is red-green-red. Eight possible combinations in all. :toung:
A triple pattern consists of the same pattern stretched over three or four consecutive days. It's hard not to miss, and you really don't have to know anything else about the charts. Example: Monday shows a pattern 5/red-red-red, Tuesday shows another pattern 5/red-red-red, and Wednesday shows a third pattern 5/red-red-red. It doesn't occur often, but when it does, watch out.
The three green or red signals are for the C, S, and I-fund. So, a pattern 2 would be C-green, S-green, I-red.
jpcavin
Well-known member
The three green or red signals are for the C, S, and I-fund. So, a pattern 2 would be C-green, S-green, I-red.
I got all that but it's still a puzzle with a couple of pieces missing. I guess that is where the proprietary part comes in :toung:
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
On the bright side, triple patterns offer a new way of thinking and looking at things. The ability of the ebbchart patterns to be quantified has helped bring about this paradigm shift. Imagine seeing the bearish triple patterns (1-1-1, 2-2-2, 4-4-4, 7-7-7) as bearish head-and-shoulder patterns. Only this time, you have each pattern's information right at your fingertips. Let's say we come across a bearish green pattern 2-2-2. A quick glance at the chart below shows the pattern making an appearance twice, with devastating effect (market crashed both times).
2-2-2 (Mar. 10, 2008 - Nov. 06, 2008): C -29.02%; S -30.53%; I -37.92%.
2-2-2 (Jun. 10, 2011 - Sep. 22, 2011): C -11.85%; S - 17.24%; I -21.12%.
With triple patterns, waiting for confirmation is a thing of the past. Simply put, what you see is what you get (WYSIWYG).
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
Unofficial results for today:
S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.25%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.64%; EFA (I-fund): +0.16%.
Tuesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.68% for the I-fund (no FV tonight).
TNA: +1.84% (YTD: +36.52%). End of the month, and the market continues to thumb its nose at the pooh bears. :suspicious:
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.25%; DWCPF (S-fund): +0.64%; EFA (I-fund): +0.16%.
Tuesday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.68% for the I-fund (no FV tonight).
TNA: +1.84% (YTD: +36.52%). End of the month, and the market continues to thumb its nose at the pooh bears. :suspicious:
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
Unofficial results for today:
S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.93%; DWCPF (S-fund): -1.78%; EFA (I-fund): -0.61%.
Wednesday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.21% for the I-fund (expect a -FV tonight).
TNA: -7.32% (YTD: +26.55%). Is it really time to sell in May and go away? :suspicious:
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
S&P 500 (C-fund): -0.93%; DWCPF (S-fund): -1.78%; EFA (I-fund): -0.61%.
Wednesday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.21% for the I-fund (expect a -FV tonight).
TNA: -7.32% (YTD: +26.55%). Is it really time to sell in May and go away? :suspicious:
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
Danny
Member
Ebb, I am having trouble renewing my subscription. I recieved an email alert today, clicked on the link, but when it takes me to the "add a year" page it says: "subs not available". I tried to go through my acct and there it only allows a monthly option. Please advise...
Thanks!
Danny
Thanks!
Danny
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
Danny, that's because we've been taking only monthly subscription (since the beginning of the year). Sorry for the inconvenience. I hope you had no trouble renewing for the month, and thanks.
Danny
Member
Danny, that's because we've been taking only monthly subscription (since the beginning of the year). Sorry for the inconvenience. I hope you had no trouble renewing for the month, and thanks.
Still having a little trouble, I check the box for monthly, and that I have agreed to the terms, I click continue and it takes me back to the preium page...is that it? never asked me for a payment method or confirmed subscription is complete? confused again???
Danny
Danny
Member
Cactus
Well-known member
noob question here.
what do you mean by expect a -FV tonight. To me FV is Future Value. Are you saying it is going to be less than -0.21?
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
Cactus, I was expecting a -FV Wednesday night because the Dow, S&P 500, and the S-fund moved more than half a percent after 12:00 noon yesterday. So yes, Wednesday's I-fund should have had a loss of more than -0.19%. Maybe it was an oversight by the TSP overlords or they just wanted to mess with our calculations.
Anyway, today's MSCI EAFE (Thursday) shows a loss of - 0.72%, but it would have been more in line with the other prices if we had that FV buffer coming in.
Note: This is for May 01, 2013.
Last edited:
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
Unofficial results for May 02, 2013:
S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.94%%; DWCPF (S-fund): +1.22%; EFA (I-fund): +0.31%.
Thursday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.72% for the I-fund (no FV tonight).
TNA: +4.85% (YTD: +32.68%). TNA using the ebbchart patterns (YTD): +40.78%. :nuts:
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
S&P 500 (C-fund): +0.94%%; DWCPF (S-fund): +1.22%; EFA (I-fund): +0.31%.
Thursday's MSCI EAFE shows a loss of -0.72% for the I-fund (no FV tonight).
TNA: +4.85% (YTD: +32.68%). TNA using the ebbchart patterns (YTD): +40.78%. :nuts:
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
Unofficial results for May 03, 2013:
S&P 500 (C-fund): +1.05%; DWCPF (S-fund): +1.22%; EFA (I-fund): +1.28%.
Friday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.72% for the I-fund (no FV tonight).
TNA: +4.60% (YTD: +38.77%). Bulls take wings and fly. :suspicious:
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
S&P 500 (C-fund): +1.05%; DWCPF (S-fund): +1.22%; EFA (I-fund): +1.28%.
Friday's MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.72% for the I-fund (no FV tonight).
TNA: +4.60% (YTD: +38.77%). Bulls take wings and fly. :suspicious:
Added a link below for anyone to download past ebbcharts (2007-2013) and track the triple patterns.
JimmyJoe
Member
I'll have to take your premature evaluations of the I fund fair value with a grain of salt from now on. The I fund rocked today.
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
JimmyJoe, that's why I call it unofficial. The FV or no FV evaluation I post is from the market movement between 12:00 noon ET and close of market (half a percent usually triggers an FV). Here's the tale of the tape on Friday:
Dow: 14,985 (12:00 pm); 14,973 (4:00 pm). Dropped 12 points!
S&P: 1616 (12:00 pm); 16.14 (4:00 pm). Fell 2 points.
EFA: 62.45 (12:00 pm); 62.55 (4:00 pm). That's a gain of only +0.16%, and far from half a percent.
For the ones who are already in the I-fund, it doesn't matter. Friday's FV of +0.74% turns into an FV baggage of -0.74% on Monday. Only the I-fund jumpers who made the early move on Friday got screwed.
The TSP overlords might have seen an influx of folks going into the I-fund, and decided to punish them. Japan's Nikkei is closed on Sunday night (still on a long holiday), so the I-fund jumpers don't even get to benefit from that (Nikkei comes back on Monday night). Maybe its another oversight by the TSP overlords. :suspicious:
JimmyJoe
Member
Interesting. I'll keep an eye on th FV for Monday. I was relieved that it didn't go bust on Friday after such a great day. Maybe the overlords didn't want to crush us I funders. I have used your evaluations often as I'm in the I fund now. Thanks for the insight and your posts.
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