ebbnflow's Account Talk

[James48843]

Punt.

 

[tsptalk]

Anybody have any feel on what this will do to our markets on Monday?

Click for response.

 

[felixthecat]

That was I was afraid of. I'll wait til morning before deciding on what to do next. I appreciate your advice. I'm sure your right based on my gut feeling that we will probably see a weaker market ahead. I've been investing for 18 years. Though I am new to the thread.

 

[felixthecat]

UPDATE 1-Japanese economy contracts more than expected in Q2

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TOKYO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Japan's economy contracted more than expected in the second quarter, revised data showed on Monday, reinforcing views that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates next week amid a global credit squeeze and market fall-out.



Gross domestic product (GDP) in April-June was marked down to a fall of 0.3 percent from an initial estimate of 0.1 percent growth.
Economists had expected a weak number, after a sharp slide in corporate capital expenditure data last week, but it was bigger than the market's median forecast for a 0.2 percent contraction.
The fall, which came after two straight quarters of expansion, cast doubt over the strength of Japan's corporate sector.
"The economy seemed to fail to achieve its potential growth level in the first and second quarter of this year, providing little evidence of firm growth," said Yoshimasa Maruyama, economist at BNP Paribas.
"The economy is still moving in line with the BOJ's main scenario, but it is not strong. I don't think a rate hike is possible, at least in September and October," he said.
The Nikkei average (.N225: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 2.5 percent after the data's release, although the drop was due more to a drop in Wall Street stocks on Friday. [.T]
With weak U.S. jobs data sending the dollar to 15-year lows and boosting expectations for a deep U.S. rate cut, the yen held its ground. <JPY=> (FXNEWS: Quote, Profile, Research).
On an annualised basis, the economy shrank 1.2 percent in the quarter, compared with a preliminary reading of a 0.5 percent rise and economists' median forecast for a revision to a 0.7 percent decline.
CAPEX DRIVEN
Robust corporate activity, underpinned by brisk exports, has been a major engine of Japan's growth, which is enjoying its longest period of expansion in the postwar era albeit at a slower pace than in previous booms.
But expectations of a September BOJ rate hike receded after market turmoil ensuing from U.S. subprime woes kept the European Central Bank from raising interest rates and the weak U.S. payrolls data heightened views that the Federal Reserve will cut rates sharply this month.
"Financial market turmoil may hurt real U.S. economic growth and if so, the pace of Japan's economic recovery may slow. Personally, I think the BOJ won't be able to raise interest rates at least until December," said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
The BOJ raised its key policy rate to a decade-high 0.50 percent in February -- its first rate hike since July 2006. The next review is due on Sept 18-19.
The revised GDP data showed that capital expenditure fell 1.2 percent, reversing a preliminary estimate for a 1.2 percent increase. The fall was less severe than the consensus forecast of a revision to a 1.8 percent fall.
Doubts over Japanese corporate-sector strength grew after government data a week ago showed that spending on plant and equipment unexpectedly fell by 4.9 percent in April-June from a year earlier.
Personal spending, which makes up about 55 percent of the economy, rose 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, compared with an initial estimate of a 0.4 percent rise.
Separate data released by the BOJ showed that Japanese banks' outstanding loans in August rose 0.5 percent from a year earlier.
The nation's most widely watched measure of money supply -- M2 plus certificates of deposit -- grew 1.8 percent in August from a year earlier, lagging a consensus market forecast for a 2.1 percent rise.

 

[tsptalk]

That was I was afraid of. I'll wait til morning before deciding on what to do next. I appreciate your advice. I'm sure your right based on my gut feeling that we will probably see a weaker market ahead. I've been investing for 18 years. Though I am new to the thread.

But seriously... Futures are down indicating a weak opening, but I'm not sure what fair value is. The Fed could step in at any time after that jobs reports Friday. Yen/dollar in dangerous territory.

 

[whitemingo]

Thanks for the early info Ebb. I guess I would be one of the Ebbaholics. I would have stayed up untill you put up the new info to see where we would be going on Tuesday. Im just a part of the Ebb Troop - Followers of Ebb.

 

[BeaverState]

Thanks for the early info Ebb. I guess I would be one of the Ebbaholics. I would have stayed up untill you put up the new info to see where we would be going on Tuesday. Im just a part of the Ebb Troop - Followers of Ebb.

Right. It's really helpful to get at least two days moves in advance. Thanks.

 

[ayla]

Nikkei is reported down 2.16% on news that Japan's economy is contracting at at rate that was more than expected. Bloomberg reporting that US has infected the ASIAN and Europe global markets.

Anybody have any feel on what this will do to our markets on Monday?

A similar scenario happened not that long ago and it cleared up on its own before their market closed, amazingly quick (I can't remember exactly which day but I think it was sometime within the past two weeks), if I remember correctly, seems like an injection of funds from their Central Bank fixed the problem similar to what is happening over here in a very unscheduled manner now and then when things get too rough. So bottom line, IMO, it is anyone's guess ...

 

[crhuss]

ebb, What do you think the impact of September 11 will have on the market result for Tuesday? I appreciate that the pattern for Tuesday is in the market with a gain, but does the pattern consider the impact of that day on the US market? Even if you are in the 'I' fund, often the international market follows the US market. I am new at this so I need some benefit of your experience. Thanks.

 

[thamm]

EBBSCLAMATION! How ebbeyites react when ebbeyphoria kicks in. Example: HOLY Ebbyroni !

Ebb terms to remember:

1. Ebbeyites (Pronouced Ebb-eee-Ites’)- Followers of the Ebb system. These are TSP legions of warriors who follow the master, carrying their ever-growing bags of gold.

Once true skeptics, the members of the Ebbeyite tribe now have become believers in the ebbyite system, and are prepared to defend their leader at all costs. Thought to be possibly related to one of the lost tribes of Israel, Ebbeyites are now in the Land of Milk and Honey.




2. Ebbeyisms – (Ebb-eee-ism’): A profound thought or action from our leader. One that reveals truth to the uninformed, such as when Ebb moves to stocks, when common sense would normally prevent an independently thinking person from taking such a drastic step. Includes such examples of courage as the habit of buying at a time when the market is down over 1 % in a single day.

Also describes the final word uttered by our leader at the end of each of his daily briefings, which is usually ended with these words:
“ Good luck all!”

3. Ebbeyitus (Ebb-eee-EYE’-tus): The incessant itching produced by the desire to jump in a direction other than that provided by the master. Ebbeyitus is when you KNOW he can’t be right, that no one in their right mind would be buying when Ebb says to buy, or selling when Ebb says to sell. Your finger itches on the mouse, with every bone in your body telling you to do the exact opposite of what Ebb has recommended. You suffer from Ebbeyitus, but know that in just one day, if you hang on and obey the master, that relief is close at hand.

4. Ebbeyish (Ebb-eee-ish’): An extremely pleasant comment from a bystander. The act of duplicating Ebb’s success. We all wish to become more Ebbeyish in our habits, in our manner, in our returns. It is the greatest complement to have someone mention to you that your portfolio is becoming Ebbeyish.


5. Ebbeycilin (Ebb-a-SIL’-an): The art of immunizing and protecting your portfolio against huge losses. The act of moving to the sidelines before being infected with a hazardous downturn.




6. Ebbeygestion (Ebb-eee-JEST’-Chun): the feeling you get in the pit of your stomach, after the 12:00 deadline for making an IFT, and the next morning when you see the market do a 180 degree turn, and it turns in your favor. During that brief period (of ebbeygestion), the bottom falls out of your gut, and you feel the butterflies in your stomach as you know your account would be worth $10,000 less if you had to cash out that minute.


7. Ebbeyphoria (ebb-eee-FOR’-eee-a): the relief felt after an extended period of ebbeygestion, when you suddenly realize that the $10,000 down is evaporating before your very eyes, and turning into a $10,000 gain in a matter of hours, or minutes because you followed Ebb’s amazing crystal ball. The feeling of Ebbeyphoria ranks on the same level as the young man’s first kiss, the first solo drive of an automobile or airplane, or the closed door on your wedding night.

What other Ebbisms can you think of?

 

[ucanbreached]

But seriously... Futures are down indicating a weak opening, but I'm not sure what fair value is. The Fed could step in at any time after that jobs reports Friday. Yen/dollar in dangerous territory.

Ebb,

out of curiosity, based on Tom's comments WRT the Japan market and yen/USD, are you staying in the I fund for tuesday?

Can someone explain what Tom and a couple others were saying a little more clearly?

 

[ucanbreached]

Although we missed the f returns on Friday, we did bob, i think, the 5th big drop in a row.

However, did anyone notice what I did fri @ midnight, Ebbs system predicted a G penny that wasn't supposed to be until tomorrow. The G pays almost 85% of the time every 5-6 days. he picked it on the 4th.

 

[fedgolfer]

lookin' at starting deep in the hole if anyone's expecting a a +FV today and IFT'ing into the I fund for tomorrow.

 

[charmed855]

lookin' at starting deep in the hole if anyone's expecting a a +FV today and IFT'ing into the I fund for tomorrow.

Agreed - I think we hit this cycle a day early. Fisher is speaking at 1pm, so perhaps he'll throw us a bone.

 

[NyteTracker]

lookin' at starting deep in the hole if anyone's expecting a a +FV today and IFT'ing into the I fund for tomorrow.

I hear ya. I'm going to stay with the USM's for fear of a +FV.

 

[GGal]

I don't see an entry to Ebb's account thread by noon - somewhat disconcerting! (Since I am alledgedly following him)

GGAL

 

[GGal]

whew!!!

 

[ebbnflow]

Sorry for the late IFT into the tracker. Moved to the I-fund for tomorrow. Whoa, the market is not looking good, but it's still too early.

 

[budnipper1]

Still don't see your move in the auto-tracker

 

[ebbnflow]

ebb, What do you think the impact of September 11 will have on the market result for Tuesday? I appreciate that the pattern for Tuesday is in the market with a gain, but does the pattern consider the impact of that day on the US market? Even if you are in the 'I' fund, often the international market follows the US market. I am new at this so I need some benefit of your experience. Thanks.

Crhuss, the pattern does not consider the impact of 9/11 on the US market, but it could have captured the market conditions way back then (anything's possible).