James48843
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Punt.
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ebbnflow's Account Talk
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felixthecat
Member
That was I was afraid of. I'll wait til morning before deciding on what to do next. I appreciate your advice. I'm sure your right based on my gut feeling that we will probably see a weaker market ahead. I've been investing for 18 years. Though I am new to the thread.
felixthecat
Member
UPDATE 1-Japanese economy contracts more than expected in Q2
Market News
Asian stocks tumble on U.S. economic fears
Oil eases over $76 on jobs data
Will stocks sink or swim after jobs data? | Video
More Business & Investing News...
TOKYO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Japan's economy contracted more than expected in the second quarter, revised data showed on Monday, reinforcing views that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates next week amid a global credit squeeze and market fall-out.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in April-June was marked down to a fall of 0.3 percent from an initial estimate of 0.1 percent growth.
Economists had expected a weak number, after a sharp slide in corporate capital expenditure data last week, but it was bigger than the market's median forecast for a 0.2 percent contraction.
The fall, which came after two straight quarters of expansion, cast doubt over the strength of Japan's corporate sector.
"The economy seemed to fail to achieve its potential growth level in the first and second quarter of this year, providing little evidence of firm growth," said Yoshimasa Maruyama, economist at BNP Paribas.
"The economy is still moving in line with the BOJ's main scenario, but it is not strong. I don't think a rate hike is possible, at least in September and October," he said.
The Nikkei average (.N225: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 2.5 percent after the data's release, although the drop was due more to a drop in Wall Street stocks on Friday. [.T]
With weak U.S. jobs data sending the dollar to 15-year lows and boosting expectations for a deep U.S. rate cut, the yen held its ground. <JPY=> (FXNEWS: Quote, Profile, Research).
On an annualised basis, the economy shrank 1.2 percent in the quarter, compared with a preliminary reading of a 0.5 percent rise and economists' median forecast for a revision to a 0.7 percent decline.
CAPEX DRIVEN
Robust corporate activity, underpinned by brisk exports, has been a major engine of Japan's growth, which is enjoying its longest period of expansion in the postwar era albeit at a slower pace than in previous booms.
But expectations of a September BOJ rate hike receded after market turmoil ensuing from U.S. subprime woes kept the European Central Bank from raising interest rates and the weak U.S. payrolls data heightened views that the Federal Reserve will cut rates sharply this month.
"Financial market turmoil may hurt real U.S. economic growth and if so, the pace of Japan's economic recovery may slow. Personally, I think the BOJ won't be able to raise interest rates at least until December," said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
The BOJ raised its key policy rate to a decade-high 0.50 percent in February -- its first rate hike since July 2006. The next review is due on Sept 18-19.
The revised GDP data showed that capital expenditure fell 1.2 percent, reversing a preliminary estimate for a 1.2 percent increase. The fall was less severe than the consensus forecast of a revision to a 1.8 percent fall.
Doubts over Japanese corporate-sector strength grew after government data a week ago showed that spending on plant and equipment unexpectedly fell by 4.9 percent in April-June from a year earlier.
Personal spending, which makes up about 55 percent of the economy, rose 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, compared with an initial estimate of a 0.4 percent rise.
Separate data released by the BOJ showed that Japanese banks' outstanding loans in August rose 0.5 percent from a year earlier.
The nation's most widely watched measure of money supply -- M2 plus certificates of deposit -- grew 1.8 percent in August from a year earlier, lagging a consensus market forecast for a 2.1 percent rise.
Market News
Asian stocks tumble on U.S. economic fears
Oil eases over $76 on jobs data
Will stocks sink or swim after jobs data? | Video
More Business & Investing News...
TOKYO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Japan's economy contracted more than expected in the second quarter, revised data showed on Monday, reinforcing views that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to raise interest rates next week amid a global credit squeeze and market fall-out.
Gross domestic product (GDP) in April-June was marked down to a fall of 0.3 percent from an initial estimate of 0.1 percent growth.
Economists had expected a weak number, after a sharp slide in corporate capital expenditure data last week, but it was bigger than the market's median forecast for a 0.2 percent contraction.
The fall, which came after two straight quarters of expansion, cast doubt over the strength of Japan's corporate sector.
"The economy seemed to fail to achieve its potential growth level in the first and second quarter of this year, providing little evidence of firm growth," said Yoshimasa Maruyama, economist at BNP Paribas.
"The economy is still moving in line with the BOJ's main scenario, but it is not strong. I don't think a rate hike is possible, at least in September and October," he said.
The Nikkei average (.N225: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 2.5 percent after the data's release, although the drop was due more to a drop in Wall Street stocks on Friday. [.T]
With weak U.S. jobs data sending the dollar to 15-year lows and boosting expectations for a deep U.S. rate cut, the yen held its ground. <JPY=> (FXNEWS: Quote, Profile, Research).
On an annualised basis, the economy shrank 1.2 percent in the quarter, compared with a preliminary reading of a 0.5 percent rise and economists' median forecast for a revision to a 0.7 percent decline.
CAPEX DRIVEN
Robust corporate activity, underpinned by brisk exports, has been a major engine of Japan's growth, which is enjoying its longest period of expansion in the postwar era albeit at a slower pace than in previous booms.
But expectations of a September BOJ rate hike receded after market turmoil ensuing from U.S. subprime woes kept the European Central Bank from raising interest rates and the weak U.S. payrolls data heightened views that the Federal Reserve will cut rates sharply this month.
"Financial market turmoil may hurt real U.S. economic growth and if so, the pace of Japan's economic recovery may slow. Personally, I think the BOJ won't be able to raise interest rates at least until December," said Yoshiki Shinke, senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
The BOJ raised its key policy rate to a decade-high 0.50 percent in February -- its first rate hike since July 2006. The next review is due on Sept 18-19.
The revised GDP data showed that capital expenditure fell 1.2 percent, reversing a preliminary estimate for a 1.2 percent increase. The fall was less severe than the consensus forecast of a revision to a 1.8 percent fall.
Doubts over Japanese corporate-sector strength grew after government data a week ago showed that spending on plant and equipment unexpectedly fell by 4.9 percent in April-June from a year earlier.
Personal spending, which makes up about 55 percent of the economy, rose 0.3 percent from the previous quarter, compared with an initial estimate of a 0.4 percent rise.
Separate data released by the BOJ showed that Japanese banks' outstanding loans in August rose 0.5 percent from a year earlier.
The nation's most widely watched measure of money supply -- M2 plus certificates of deposit -- grew 1.8 percent in August from a year earlier, lagging a consensus market forecast for a 2.1 percent rise.
But seriously... Futures are down indicating a weak opening, but I'm not sure what fair value is. The Fed could step in at any time after that jobs reports Friday. Yen/dollar in dangerous territory.
whitemingo
Member
Thanks for the early info Ebb. I guess I would be one of the Ebbaholics. I would have stayed up untill you put up the new info to see where we would be going on Tuesday. Im just a part of the Ebb Troop - Followers of Ebb.
BeaverState
Member
Right. It's really helpful to get at least two days moves in advance. Thanks.
ayla
Member
A similar scenario happened not that long ago and it cleared up on its own before their market closed, amazingly quick (I can't remember exactly which day but I think it was sometime within the past two weeks), if I remember correctly, seems like an injection of funds from their Central Bank fixed the problem similar to what is happening over here in a very unscheduled manner now and then when things get too rough. So bottom line, IMO, it is anyone's guess ...
ebb, What do you think the impact of September 11 will have on the market result for Tuesday? I appreciate that the pattern for Tuesday is in the market with a gain, but does the pattern consider the impact of that day on the US market? Even if you are in the 'I' fund, often the international market follows the US market. I am new at this so I need some benefit of your experience. Thanks.
thamm
Member
EBBSCLAMATION! How ebbeyites react when ebbeyphoria kicks in. Example: HOLY Ebbyroni !
ucanbreached
New member
Ebb,
out of curiosity, based on Tom's comments WRT the Japan market and yen/USD, are you staying in the I fund for tuesday?
Can someone explain what Tom and a couple others were saying a little more clearly?
ucanbreached
New member
Although we missed the f returns on Friday, we did bob, i think, the 5th big drop in a row.
However, did anyone notice what I did fri @ midnight, Ebbs system predicted a G penny that wasn't supposed to be until tomorrow. The G pays almost 85% of the time every 5-6 days. he picked it on the 4th.
However, did anyone notice what I did fri @ midnight, Ebbs system predicted a G penny that wasn't supposed to be until tomorrow. The G pays almost 85% of the time every 5-6 days. he picked it on the 4th.
charmed855
Member
Agreed - I think we hit this cycle a day early. Fisher is speaking at 1pm, so perhaps he'll throw us a bone.
Last edited:
NyteTracker
Member
I hear ya. I'm going to stay with the USM's for fear of a +FV.
budnipper1
Active member
Still don't see your move in the auto-tracker
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
Crhuss, the pattern does not consider the impact of 9/11 on the US market, but it could have captured the market conditions way back then (anything's possible).
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