ebbnflow's Account Talk

[12%ayear]

For all you who are about to retire, why are you taking on so much risk in these market conditions? These markets are not for the faint of heart. Unless, you have 5 or more years left, be careful!!! Unless, you do not mind to risk $$.Just my 2 cents.

 

[airlift]

Following the ebbtracker I went 100% from G to I cob today. No doubt there is lots of pain and uncertainty in our ranks (including me). But, by buying at cob today, I hope for at least a bounce that might reduce significant additional losses. Me real best wishes to all!

 

[nnuut]

For all you who are about to retire, why are you taking on so much risk in these market conditions? These markets are not for the faint of heart. Unless, you have 5 or more years left, be careful!!! Unless, you do not mind to risk $$.Just my 2 cents.

You know I'm close to retirement, and when I do I will still be here trying to make more money. The only difference is I won't be allowed to make contributions, this is even more reason for me to keep making MORE MONEY than the L2010 let's say. Retirement isn't DEATH , it's just money for nothing and your drinks can be free if you have good friends, ask Spaf!!

 

[buda]

Great call Ebby.!

It was like the antique road show for me today. What a bargan!

Buda

 

[fabijo]

For all you who are about to retire, why are you taking on so much risk in these market conditions? These markets are not for the faint of heart. Unless, you have 5 or more years left, be careful!!! Unless, you do not mind to risk $$.Just my 2 cents.

I'll probably be playing a different game when I'm that close to retirement. For now, I'm just in for the long haul. I could be in for at least another 25 years!

 

[Tempest]

I guess it's all relative. I can see an 18 month cushion. But 5 years? You can easily make 6 figures in that time with contributions and moderate risk.

 

[12%ayear]

I guess it's all relative. I can see an 18 month cushion. But 5 years? You can easily make 6 figures in that time with contributions and moderate risk.

Of course,I was saying that for those not faint of heart. I tend to be a risky taker until I die. It is in my blood. Smart risk!!!

 

[ebbnflow]

I've decided to stay over the weekend in the I-fund. Here is the revised post of the EbbChart web page:

This global sell-off is a natural progression of the whole subprime mess and we're just going to have to get used to the volatility that comes with it. At any rate, I've updated the ebbchart for next Monday and we have pattern 8 on tap. It's sucess rate for predicting down days is not so good (5/12 or .42%). It's one of the weakest of the safe haven patterns and hasn't made a turnaround in almost eight months, so I've decided to play it in contrarian mode. Check the complete stat and description for each ebbchart pattern way down below.

The system is in the I-fund today and shall remain there over the weekend. Good luck all!

Here is the updated tally for each pattern (1-8) on the ebbchart from January 16 through Aug. 09, 2007. The tally for patterns 1, 2, 4 and 7 shows the number of up days and total gains when using the C, S or I-fund. The tally for patterns 3, 5, 6 and 8 shows the number of down days and total loss saved for the C, S or I-fund. The ebbchart has two sets of patterns: One set (1, 2, 4 and 7) goes to stocks (I-fund) and the other set (3, 5, 6 and 8) goes to safe haven (G/F).

Next Monday's pattern (two reds/safe haven, but playing it as stocks):
-- Pattern 8: Down days (5/12), total missed gain (+0.62%).
-- It's one of the weaker safe haven patterns, and I've decided to play it in contrarian mode.

Today's pattern (three reds/safe haven, but played as stocks):
-- Pattern 5: Down days (4/12), total missed gain (+2.47%).
-- Weakest pattern going to safe haven. Playing in contrarian mode as explained below.
-- Last played in contrarian mode successfully (+1.06%).

Yesterday's pattern (two reds/safe haven):
-- Pattern 3: I-fund down (-2.79%); S-fund down (-1.95%); C-fund down (-2.93%) for the day.
-- Down days (8/18 to 9/19), total loss saved (-3.75% to -6.44%). Saved a bundle.

Patterns going to stocks (two or more greens):
-- Pattern 1: Up days (20/31), total gain (+3.85%).
-- Pattern 2: Up days (12/16), total gain (+4.23%).
-- Pattern 4: Up days (14/21), total gain (+6.94%).

Patterns going to safe haven (two or more reds):
-- Pattern 3: Down days (9/19), total loss saved (-6.44%) -- the lower the %, the more saved.
-- Pattern 6: Down days (11/18), total loss saved (-0.99%) -- the lower the %, the more saved.

Patterns that are weak (not working so far):
-- Patterns 5, 7 and 8 had missed gains and losses, but it's still too early to make any judgment.
-- If these patterns remain weak, contrarian plays* in the future might be worth a try.

Contrarian plays* (started on July 30):
-- Pattern 5: Up days (1/1), total gain (+1.06%). Safe haven pattern played as a stock pattern.
-- Patterns 5 is the weakest of the safe haven patterns; pattern 7 is the weakest of the stock patterns.
-- Pattern 8 will also be played in contrarian mode. Being nimble and taking what the system presents.

More stats to ponder:
-- I-fund total from Jan.16 thru Aug. 09: Up days (84/144 or .58%), down days (58/144 or .40%).
-- On days with patterns 1, 2, 4 or 7: Up days (52/82 or .63%), total gain (+12.03%).
-- On days with patterns 3, 5, 6 or 8: Down days (29/62 or .47%), total loss saved (-4.49%).
-- The ebbchart increased our probability of catching up days (+.05%) and down days (+.07%).
-- Our exposure to stocks was also low at only 57% (82/144 in stocks and 62/144 in safe haven).
-- On top of the total gain (+12.03%), we also get to pick up some G-penny along the way.

Great to know the ebbtracker's generated patterns for the ebbchart are in tune with the market. If both sets of patterns produced good gains or the results were reversed, then it's time to go back to the drawing board.

Note: A day with no gain or loss for a fund won't be counted on the pattern tally.

- ebb

 

[draggen3]

Mr ebbnflow , Question is not the system in the g fund for monday (two stops). Im not being scarastic just want to make sure , that the system says g fund but since the system sucess rate wasn not good you stayed in I fund . Thxs for all you work

 

[Wrngway]

I'm not Ebb, but his move makes sense. Here's my reasoning. Look at the stats for patterns 5, 7, & 8.

Pattern 5 w/ 3 stop signs points to the G Fund. However, if you were to play contrarion every time and went to the I fund instead you would be up 2.47% overall.

Pattern 7 contrarion would've saved you from a 3.21% loss, and Pattern 8 would have gotten you a 0.62% gain.

Pattern 8 is on the fence. Given that Ebb is in I fund at the moment, than it's not surprising he stayed in for what might be a bounce after the I fund losses on Thur. and Friday.

 

[gphill]

Hope to be in the right place here!
Checked the after hours trading for the "I" find and it is up 1.46%
maybe a change is about to happen for Monday!
GLTA
gpihll

 

[CorMaGa34]

gphill,

Can you pls tell me how you check the I fund (to know if it's up or down). I thought that because it is a compilation of European and Asian markets and the I fund being a Government concept as such, it was not that easy to check its % of gains/losses.

 

[ebbnflow]

Every time I make an IFT to the G-fund when it's all green I always think about getting whipsawed. There it goes again.

 

[ebbnflow]

I'm not Ebb, but his move makes sense. Here's my reasoning. Look at the stats for patterns 5, 7, & 8.

Pattern 5 w/ 3 stop signs points to the G Fund. However, if you were to play contrarion every time and went to the I fund instead you would be up 2.47% overall.

Pattern 7 contrarion would've saved you from a 3.21% loss, and Pattern 8 would have gotten you a 0.62% gain.

Pattern 8 is on the fence. Given that Ebb is in I fund at the moment, than it's not surprising he stayed in for what might be a bounce after the I fund losses on Thur. and Friday.

My thoughts exactly, Wrngway! I already knew on Friday that pattern 5 w/ 3 stop signs (played contrarian) was not going to pan out, so I was expecting a bounce on Monday and pattern 8 being weak made the decision to go contrarian also that much more easier.

 

[wv-girl]

gphill,

Can you pls tell me how you check the I fund (to know if it's up or down). I thought that because it is a compilation of European and Asian markets and the I fund being a Government concept as such, it was not that easy to check its % of gains/losses.

Ask ChemEng to give you a link to his spreadsheet. Or ask Jayhawer for a link to his stuff. I think you might be able to find it on home page?

 

[airlift]

Ebb,
Have you updated the ebbtracker for tomorrow? I only see it for today at the G fund. Thanks.

 

[airlift]

Now i jus saw the entry into F cob today.

 

[TRUEHONEST]

I am in CCC fund. for Wednesday.

I have a Buy Signal - 87%. F fund will get hit.

Now you know the truth

1. Put contribution in TSP Retirement since 1991
2. 2007 ==> In January, I bought basic A.I.P. [Artificial Intelligent Program]
3. 2007 ==> Aug 12, I have 4.5 %. This year Prediction: 17 % for this year

 

[ebbnflow]

Too late for me TRUEHONEST, just moved to the F-fund. Hope your move to the C-fund works out for you. Good luck all!

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,
Have you updated the ebbtracker for tomorrow? I only see it for today at the G fund. Thanks.

Sometimes it helps if you type in F5 (refresh button).