ebbnflow's Account Talk

[ebbnflow]

Ebb - does it worry you at all that Monday will be the first time all year (I think) that the tracker has gone to the I-fund 6 days in a row? :worried:

I checked all the ebbcharts and I'm surprised that you're right. This is the first time the ebbchart has it in stocks for six consecutive days. Nowadays, I think of being in or out of stocks in terms of baseball. I copied this stats from the Ebbchart's web page.

More stats to ponder:
-- I-fund total from Jan.16 thru June 28: Up days (70/115 or .61%), down days (43/115 or .37%).
-- On days with patterns 1, 2, 4 or 7: Up days (43/66 or .65%), total gain (+12.24%).
-- On days with patterns 3, 5, 6 or 8: Down days (21/49 or .43%), total loss saved (1.61%).
-- The ebbchart increased our probability of catching up days (+.04%) and down days (+.06%).
-- Our exposure to stocks was also low at only 57% (66/115 in stocks and 49/115 in safe haven).

Now, back to baseball!

As you know, I have my best patterns (heavy hitters) for going to stocks. Pattern 1 currently has a batting average of .615 (16/26). Pattern 2 has a BA of .833 (10/12) and pattern 4 has a BA of .733 (11/15).

Going to safe haven, I have pattern 3 with a BA of .384 (5/13) and pattern 6 with a BA of .571 (8/14).

Just by looking at these numbers, I think I should be more scared being out of the market.

 

[12%ayear]

I checked all the ebbcharts and I'm surprised that you're right. This is the first time the ebbchart has it in stocks for six consecutive days. Nowadays, I think of being in or out of stocks in terms of baseball. I copied this stats from the Ebbchart's web page.

More stats to ponder:
-- I-fund total from Jan.16 thru June 28: Up days (70/115 or .61%), down days (43/115 or .37%).
-- On days with patterns 1, 2, 4 or 7: Up days (43/66 or .65%), total gain (+12.24%).
-- On days with patterns 3, 5, 6 or 8: Down days (21/49 or .43%), total loss saved (1.61%).
-- The ebbchart increased our probability of catching up days (+.04%) and down days (+.06%).
-- Our exposure to stocks was also low at only 57% (66/115 in stocks and 49/115 in safe haven).

Now, back to baseball!

As you know, I have my best patterns (heavy hitters) for going to stocks. Pattern 1 currently has a batting average of .615 (16/26). Pattern 2 has a BA of .833 (10/12) and pattern 4 has a BA of .733 (11/15).

Going to safe haven, I have pattern 3 with a BA of .384 (5/13) and pattern 6 with a BA of .571 (8/14).

Just by looking at these numbers, I think I should be more scared being out of the market.

You like my baseball idea....been using that for years.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I like a baseball analogy as well. 1 base hit = selling 1 low risk big S&P option credit spread, collecting .50 cents.

How's the e-mini workin, ebb?

 

[ebbnflow]

Hiya, FUTURESTRADER! I've only been using the e-minis whenever I see an x-check on the ebbchart, but after seeing how the patterns (1, 2, 4 for stocks/3 and 6 for safe haven) were doing, I found myself mixing it up some more.

 

[ebbnflow]

Gone to the F-fund for Tuesday. I think I'm just even this year playing the F-fund. So it really doesn't matter for now if it's the G-fund or the F-fund (it's a crapshoot).

 

[ebbnflow]

You like my baseball idea....been using that for years.

Thanks, 12%. TSP and baseball...mom's apple pie...batter up!

 

[Bullitt]

Well then for all you baseball fans out there... I'd be more than happy with an average right around the Mendoza Line when it comes to investing.

 

[ebbnflow]

I parked on the wrong spot. Moving over to the G-fund for now. Have a great 4th of July everybody!

 

[USNAVYRETIRED]

Have a great 4th of July everybody!

Same to you Ebb, and to everyone else too!!! :nuts:

 

[anthony]

You like my baseball idea....been using that for years.

Finally, market theory I can work with! And I have another baseball correlation: The Boston Red Sox as a market parallel! ...

April & May: Great months, lots of hard-earned wins (=solid market earnings).
June: Not so good, Sox finished only a couple games above .500 (=rough ride on the market).
July: Starting off good and still the best record in the majors (=market peak?). But here comes the All-Star Break next week (all-star = smart investors, break = market pull back).

What's next? ... October-November, here we come!

Just a whacko thought, and keep in mind Sox fans have grown accustomed to nuclear meltdowns in late summer. :laugh:

 

[tsptalk]

Good analogy. I'll bet Bill Buckner wishes he had his stops in, in '86.

Sorry Anthony. Us Mets fans take every opportunity to throw in a Buckner joke when the door is open.

Good luck this year. I'd love to see an '86 series rematch this year.

 

[anthony]

I'd love to see an '86 series rematch this year.

Me too. My XO's a big Mets fan so it'd be good times.

Ebb, sorry for taking over your thread with baseball ... let's try to bring this thing back full circle and talk about stocks: Check out this interesting article and website about Trend Trading, featuring stock market master, John Henry, owner of the Boston Red Sox.

 

[ebbnflow]

No problemo, anthony! I'm always glad to see traffic on my thread.

Don't know if it's a day early, but here goes nothing. I just moved to the I-fund. Good luck all!

 

[tsptalk]

Good move out of the F-fund, and into G today.

 

[Eldritch Flatus]

Friday = pattern 4 in ebbchart!
Pattern 4: Up days (11/15), total gain (+5.07%).

Whee! Thank you all very much! Ahead of time even. I follow the ebbchart and went 100 G for today. Whew!

 

[airlift]

Ebb,
I followed the ebbtracker from G to I cob today. Frankly, this hands-off approach only requires trusting your excellent track record. These days I am having less free time to stay on top of the market fluctuations; therefore, it is quite a relief to know that you have put out a great system to rely upon. As I understand this, the ebbtracker factors in the currency issues, so that's another benefit to consider. Maybe we will buy at a very good price today. We here seem to be a minority of contrarians today going to the I Fund! Good luck to everyone.

 

[GUCHI]

i'm witcha !!!!! gl all

 

[ebbnflow]

Good move out of the F-fund, and into G today.

Yep, the F-fund's caught a big one today. Maybe in excess of -.05 cents!

 

[ebbnflow]

Friday = pattern 4 in ebbchart!
Pattern 4: Up days (11/15), total gain (+5.07%).

Whee! Thank you all very much! Ahead of time even. I follow the ebbchart and went 100 G for today. Whew!

Sure glad somebody's checking on the ebbchart's pattern tally. I was thinking of scrapping the tally. Maybe I should continue doing it.

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,
I followed the ebbtracker from G to I cob today. Frankly, this hands-off approach only requires trusting your excellent track record. These days I am having less free time to stay on top of the market fluctuations; therefore, it is quite a relief to know that you have put out a great system to rely upon. As I understand this, the ebbtracker factors in the currency issues, so that's another benefit to consider. Maybe we will buy at a very good price today. We here seem to be a minority of contrarians today going to the I Fund! Good luck to everyone.

i'm witcha !!!!! gl all

Thanks, guys! Yep, it factors in the currencies for the I-fund. I also agree that it takes the emotional stress out of trading.