ebbnflow's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

Wow, pattern 2 is spot on. However, I think I'll make a contrarian play on patterns 5, 7 and 8. :toung:

Ebb:

Charmed has an intriguing point. It would be interesting to play a few scenarios.. (1) play contrarian 100% (2) play contrarian 50% (3) play contrarian... say 20% for each pattern. Perhaps there is a methodology that would place us in a positive outcome position for each pattern? :nuts:

FS

 

[ebbnflow]

Big day for the stocks. I hope there's more to this gravy train 'cause I'm boarding the I-train today. Good luck to all!

 

[ebbnflow]

Wow, pattern 2 is spot on. However, I think I'll make a contrarian play on patterns 5, 7 and 8. :toung:

Yep, pattern #2 is 10/11 (.91%) and don't forget pattern #4 which is 9/12 (.75%).

 

[ebbnflow]

This shows how each of the patterns on the ebbchart has fared from January 16 through June 14, 2007.

I might try this strategy for next year:

Use pattern #1 and play the S-fund (+6.13%) instead of the I-fund (+3.72%).
Use pattern #2 and play the I-fund as usual (+5.06%).
Use pattern #4 and play the I-fund (+4.51%).
Park in the G-fund (*+2.22%) when the other patterns show up.

That's a grand total of almost +18%.

*Okay, I might not get all the G-pennies 'cause I'd be in stocks on some days the G-penny is paying out.

 

[ebbnflow]

I just thought of something else. Dang, this new found knowledge about the ebbchart may have major repercussions on the old risk/reward ratio. Imagine being exposed to stocks only 46% of the time!

 

[tsptalk]

Imagine being exposed to stocks only 46% of the time!

That is huge!

 

[airlift]

It's promising to be an offer impossible to refuse!!! Good luck to all!

 

[FogSailing]

Great information Ebb...Thanks.

FS

 

[ebbnflow]

Thanks, FogSailing! More stats to ponder:

On days with two or more greens (patterns 1, 2, 4 and 7), the total gain is at +13.15% (using the I-fund).
On days with two or more stops (patterns 3, 5, 6 and 8), there is a total loss of -1.57% (using the I-fund).

Great to know the ebbtracker's generated patterns for the ebbchart are in tune with the market.

 

[charmed855]

Ebb,
I think you may have cheated yourself on the ebbchart yesterday.
It shows I fund gains of -.05 cents instead of +.05.
c855

 

[tsptalk]

I just thought of something else. Dang, this new found knowledge about the ebbchart may have major repercussions on the old risk/reward ratio. Imagine being exposed to stocks only 46% of the time!

Spaf had an idea to add this figure to our spreadsheets. Can anyone think of an Excel formula that might be able to easily count the number of days or weeks in and out of the market to find this percentage?

I think it's good to know, particularly for those following other members' transactions based on returns.

 

[jayhawker]

Spaf had an idea to add this figure to our spreadsheets. Can anyone think of an Excel formula that might be able to easily count the number of days or weeks in and out of the market to find this percentage?

A combination of the below should do the trick:

1) =NETWORKDAYS (to count the number of workdays between two dates)
2) =COUNTIF (to check whether a particular percentage in a fund is <> 0.0%)
3) An array list of all the dates of the market holidays (to subtract them from NETWORKDAYS)

If ebbnflow will send me a tracker spreadsheet with the ebbtracker moves in it, I'd be happy to give it a shot.

Ed.

 

[tsptalk]

If ebbnflow will send me a tracker spreadsheet with the ebbtracker moves in it, I'd be happy to give it a shot.

Thanks! I can send it.

 

[ebbnflow]

Ebb,
I think you may have cheated yourself on the ebbchart yesterday.
It shows I fund gains of -.05 cents instead of +.05.
c855

Charmed855, I checked and it says +.05. You may have forgotten to use your glasses.

 

[ebbnflow]

Spaf had an idea to add this figure to our spreadsheets. Can anyone think of an Excel formula that might be able to easily count the number of days or weeks in and out of the market to find this percentage?

I think it's good to know, particularly for those following other members' transactions based on returns.

I just thought of something else. Dang, this newfound knowledge about the ebbchart may have major repercussions on the old risk/reward ratio. Imagine being exposed to stocks only 46% of the time!

It would be great to see each member's exposure to stocks. I hope Jayhawker's formula does the trick. I think the ebbchart is at 56% right now. The 46% I referred to in the quote above was if I just go with three of the four most successful patterns (1, 2 and 4) right now. Glad I can clear that up.

 

[Fivetears]

Hi Ebb. On the pattern days (1-8), what does the "15/26", "15/25", & "16/25" numbers represent? Ref: Pattern 01.
Thanks.

This shows how each of the patterns on the ebbchart has fared from January 16 through June 14, 2007.

I might try this strategy for next year:

Use pattern #1 and play the S-fund (+6.13%) instead of the I-fund (+3.72%).
Use pattern #2 and play the I-fund as usual (+5.06%).
Use pattern #4 and play the I-fund (+4.51%).
Park in the G-fund (*+2.22%) when the other patterns show up.

That's a grand total of almost +18%.

*Okay, I might not get all the G-pennies 'cause I'd be in stocks on some days the G-penny is paying out.

 

[ebbnflow]

Hiya Fivetears! On pattern #1, 15/26 means that the C-fund made a profit 15 times out of the 26 times the pattern came up. Same thing goes with the S and I-fund (25 only because on one occasion for either funds there were no gains). The percentage in parenthesis are the total gains for the funds from January 16 through...

Just like the ebbchart the first row is for the C-fund, the second row is for the S-fund and the third is for the I-fund.

 

[fabijo]

Charmed855, I checked and it says +.05. You may have forgotten to use your glasses.

:laugh:

 

[charmed855]

No thanks, I prefer these glasses instead. Probably what got me confused in the first place.

 

[ebbnflow]

Cheers!