DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Yes, Whipsaw. I knew that eventually someone would figure out that I have been holding back. Yes, laugh if you must, but just know that this is the sad and true reason why I pace back and forth daily like a crazy cat (Epic! :cheesy:). I scream and contort my body like they do in Matrix (or like Linda Blair's spinning head! ).

This is the reason my friend. And yes, I have become the chart and am now hopelessly lost in this matrix...quick ...hand me a lifeline! Too many indicators...too many lines...too many colors...never thought I'd say that! HELP! :rolleyes:

crazy stk charts.jpg

Whipsaw said:
DBA, soon you will see the charts like Neo in the Matrix, with limits and trendlines moving in conjunction with economic projections and geo-political events, bollinger bands and moving averages all flowing like fluids across the chart in live motion... you will be... be the chart, DBA... the shortest line between two points is a straight line in the opposite direction! Na na na na na na naaaaa! :nuts:
Click to expand...
 
Good morning, here are charts as if a few mins ago.
Tomorrow we get more CPI information and heard talking heads say it should be over 8%.

01 - S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png

02 - C FUND - SPX DAILY.png

03 - I FUND - EFA DAILY.png

04 - F FUND - AGG DAILY.png
 
Very interesting... On Maria Bartiromo this morning, Dagen McDowell said that Fed is going to start rolling off $95B (monthly?) of which $35B is mortgage securities, which will come off the $9 trillion dollar balance sheet in a matter of months. The last time this happened (unwinding), it was kept steady for 3 years, so this is fast. She then asked question I have been wondering about: How will this affect the economy and assets?

In response, this guy, Nick Timiraos, Wallstreet Journal Chief Economics Correspondent, said we "don't understand the mechanics of balance sheet very well". Fed buying provided stimulus to economy so reduction will reverse the stimulus. We don't know if this will equate to .25% it .50% rate increase this year, so just don't know.

He went on to say, the Fed has signaled aggressive rate increases and this will affect mortgage housing market. "It will take a lot of demand out of the market.". But may still see price growth but not as many offers. He said that since December, when 30 year rate was at 3.5% it has increased to 5% at this time, for a 1.5% increase, which is fast. Said the last time this happened (1.5%increase) was in 1994. This will take demand out if mortgages.

So that makes sense, but I was surprised he did not have a better metric on how the balance sheet decrease would affect market. While he is not an economist, he us the WS Chief correspondent on Economy, so I would think he would have gotten a good answer on this from someone!
 
Dream, thanks for sharing your charts. Your page is the first I visit when I come here.
We've not seen this size of Fed unwinding(previous was $60B), so any answer given would be a guess. At $95B a month it would take 3 years to unwind only 1/3 of the total $9T. Also I believe the Fed is looking for any excuse to not increase rates or not unwind.

Who will be buying these mortgages? They may have to price them at a discount due to the amount they are selling and the interest rates on these mortgages. Also will this take money out of the stock market or at the least take money that might have been invested in stocks (think supply and demand).

Another thing to think about is what makes up the rest of the unwinding $95-$35=$60B/month. They bought govt. bonds and also some corporate bonds. What does this do to those markets? $60B a month is a lot to hit the market.
A lot of moving parts for this soft landing to happen.
 
Great points Jack!
Yes, who will be buying those mortgage-backed bonds and other bonds? Might China hold back on its buys and try to sink our ship. Or buy lots of mortgage-backed securities in hope of defaults to own more in US..or am I out in left field???? Then again, not sure how to think about this because some talking heads today were saying that China and Europe will likely go into recession, so would they even be in a position to buy our bonds? I suppose monied persons in the world would be interested investing here if their countries are in recession. Hummm.....
 
DB. I was trying to watch the interview and can't locate the video feed. would you happen to have a link?

DreamboatAnnie said:
Very interesting... On Maria Bartiromo this morning, Dagen McDowell said that Fed is going to start rolling off $95B (monthly?) of which $35B is mortgage securities, which will come off the $9 trillion dollar balance sheet in a matter of months. The last time this happened (unwinding), it was kept steady for 3 years, so this is fast. She then asked question I have been wondering about: How will this affect the economy and assets?

In response, this guy, Nick Timiraos, Wallstreet Journal Chief Economics Correspondent, said we "don't understand the mechanics of balance sheet very well". Fed buying provided stimulus to economy so reduction will reverse the stimulus. We don't know if this will equate to .25% it .50% rate increase this year, so just don't know.

He went on to say, the Fed has signaled aggressive rate increases and this will affect mortgage housing market. "It will take a lot of demand out of the market.". But may still see price growth but not as many offers. He said that since December, when 30 year rate was at 3.5% it has increased to 5% at this time, for a 1.5% increase, which is fast. Said the last time this happened (1.5%increase) was in 1994. This will take demand out if mortgages.

So that makes sense, but I was surprised he did not have a better metric on how the balance sheet decrease would affect market. While he is not an economist, he us the WS Chief correspondent on Economy, so I would think he would have gotten a good answer on this from someone!
Click to expand...
 
DBO you have mentioned the number 20 on Slow STO in the past as it starts to turn up as an entry pt...no go this time? Do you have a spidey sense for this one like Bquat. EJJ
 
Hi Shitepoke, very good question! :smile: The S and C funds had not turned up enough or gone above 20 on SlowSto. It had not crossed above its "signal" line (i.e. %d line=orange line going OVER black line...sometimes hard to see so look at numbers) when I had to make decision before the noon cut off. So, both of my entry parameters on Slow Sto had not yet hit.

But it was starting to look like it might cross in afternoon (at least for S fund),but decided best to wait for strategy parameters to hit. Notice how S fund, %k line number (at left side of that indicator was slightly higher than the %d (orange) line (one part of my parameter had hit very slightly on that fund), but both lines were still under 20. So it had crossed above its signal line But not SS 20 (only 1 of 2). C fund was not in this situation...no crossover of signal line and no cross above 20.

In any case, an entry would have been an early entry (not per my strategy), but I was thinking tomorrow some banks report earnings and just "thinking" this might be good and cause market to rise, but at last minute decided my decision was too rushed. :(

FYI - I also consider other factors like how the candle looks, trend lines, moving averages, etc. But the Slow Sto is one that I weigh heavily in entry decision making. I was just too rushed to look at everything carefully enough....eeeee. :rolleyes:
 
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DBA sounds like your strategy is similar to Ira's? How do you account for only having two trades per month in your strategy? are there certain months you'd rather be in before starting the next month or just purely looking at technicals?
 
Hi MMK,I try to stick to my strategy but at times I do try to get in before start of next month. But... That does not always work out well. Trying to stick to my strategy and that is hard for me to do at times. Limitation on IFTs is a huge factor.

We really have only one opportunity to jump in, with possibility of using 2nd IFT to shift to different stock/bond fund or adjust percent invested, before starting to reduce exposure or exit fully. So our hands are bound! It is down right criminal! :( Oh and then with noon cut off we are blindfolded and can only sit and watch for hours to know what price our request will actually transact at. And there is Sooooo much that can and does happen in those last few hours! It's sick!
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Hi MMK,I try to stick to my strategy but at times I do try to get in before start of next month. But... That does not always work out well. Trying to stick to my strategy and that is hard for me to do at times. Limitation on IFTs is a huge factor. We really have only one opportunity to jump in, with possibility of using 2nd IFT to shift to different stock/bond fund or adjust percent invested, before starting to reduce exposure or exit fully. It us insane! :(
Click to expand...

well can we talk about it off the lilli pad because it is lonely out here. 😂😂 I know the market could go lower but on the otherhand…a lot of the bad news has been repricing stocks in the market. Lastly…buy low sell high sounds right. Yeah…I know it could go lower. ☹️😉
 
Decided to enter. Thinking this will be short term. C25-S25-F20-G30
Thanks for comments by all of you! Time to get off the Lilly pad. Crossing fingers!
Best wishes to you all! :D.

P.S. Okay Felix I jumped off the LillyPad... Now you have company! Lol...:cheesy:
 
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