DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[TommyIV]

Decided to jump back on lilli pad after the recent runup. Market on borrowed time.

You made what seemed to be a long-term move to the S-fund earlier this month yet are already exiting. Respectable adaptive move to current market conditions, yet I'm curious how you'll respond if stocks continue to run up in price from here. You intended to be in stocks for some time so would some strength in the next couple weeks prompt you to get back in at a higher price?

 

[Epic]

Hi Epic,
I just looked and SPX is at day 3 with both Stochastics lines above 80 so I think that would be considered embedded if it Holds into tomorrow. DWCPF is on day two today.

Yeah, I watched Ira's nightly yesterday and even he's not seeing much of a concrete direction at this point, and he doesn't want much to do with this market at the moment until things become a little more stable.
I'm still feelin things out. I like making money, but I hate losing money even more !!! I'm also beating myself up for being too conservative and not catching any of the last leg up. I really could have used that. :banghead:

 

[nnuut]

Me 2!

 

[felixthecat]

I was not expecting to see the rebound happen so quickly so that changed my outlook for the short term. I adapt quickly to market conditions but still remain focused on the macro and micro dynamics. I believe in small cap longer term recovery but there is a lot of risk with inflation and the war expansion in the short term. I'm just looking for a positive year and whatever it takes to get there is how I will play this out. I would welcome an end to the war or better management of inflation. Neither of which is happening right now. I would think I would feel more comfortable in longer stays in the market if we moves in a favorable direction for either. Until then...better to be nimble. Thanks for the question TommyIV!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yep...nimble is the key! I will comment more on that in a bit!

Here are COB charts going back for a longer periid for a broader view.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Being nimble has been tough for me. My main strategy involves getting into market AFTER Slow Stochastic drops below 20 and then starts to rise. For this last rally, it touched 20 and rose very quickly for S fund and C fund never even touched 20.

If you look at charts below, I drew in a few vertical lines to more clearly see Stochastics and MACD at start of this rally. As you can see S Fund chart, Slow Sto signal line didn't touch 20 until 3/15, then moved up on 3/16. On that day, price closed both above the 3 and 10 EMAs with gap up. So that day (3/16) or the next day (3/17 -3rd day) should have been entry. By the 4th day (3/18), Slow Sto was already hitting 80 and for me it was too late for entry.

Also, sometimes you don't see the indicator hit until COB so hindsight is always easiest to spot entry. In any case, decision had to be made quick to enter, or try an earlier entry not knowing if the knife was still dropping. I guess one could consider how much market had dropped, but with our down trend, I think it's high risky no matter what.

Not trying to give excuses but reality is that on my last entry on 2/25 (similar situation), it ended with exit on 3/1 for a bit of a loss as the rally was too short lived... So this time I was a bit gun shy...with good reason, so I missed the entry. That's okay because another drop is coming....eventually, so I am trying to stay patient! Don't want to chase it.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Daily charts as of a few mins ago. I will remove those extra lines/circles for tomorrow.

 

[shitepoke]

DBA...i read your posts daily religiously as i am sure others do. just like when Coolhand was around (hope you are not leaving anytime soon). the time you put in for the rest of our benefit is hard to put into words what it means to at least myself. i hope you know that 'cause sometimes ya just need to hear it. keep'em comin' and hopefully we won't be gunshy on the next bounce. cheers EJJ



[Being nimble has been tough for me. My main strategy involves getting into market AFTER Slow Stochastic drops below 20 and then starts to rise. For this last rally, it touched 20 and rose very quickly for S fund and C fund never even touched 20.

Also, sometimes you don't see the indicator hit until COB so hindsight is always easiest to spot entry. In any case, decision had to be made quick to enter, or try an earlier entry not knowing if the knife was still dropping. I guess one could consider how much market had dropped, but with our down trend, I think it's high risky no matter what.]

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

DBA...i read your posts daily religiously as i am sure others do. just like when Coolhand was around (hope you are not leaving anytime soon). the time you put in for the rest of our benefit is hard to put into words what it means to at least myself. i hope you know that 'cause sometimes ya just need to hear it. keep'em comin' and hopefully we won't be gunshy on the next bounce. cheers EJJ

Hi Shitepoke, I sincerely appreciate your kindness and thoughtfulness. Your message is very uplifting and I did need that. Thank You So Much! I do plan to keep posting until at least January 2024, God Willing, and probably beyond as I do enjoy studying charts and posting.

I am definitely watching for the next chance at entry and hope I can move quickly enough without fear.
Wishing you the best in your life, health, family and investing! :smile:

 

[Epic]

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Your awesome too Epic! Thanks for the cool dancing letters! Lol....

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Here are charts as of a few minutes ago. I wonder about how an agreement between will play out. Market (Dow) had gained over 200 points at news an hour ago about "consensus" but now reported that is not the case...back down goes market. Last month, it was reported Russia had hard time making its payment on international loans. Well that is coming up again next week. Hummm....Slow Stochastic still seems embedded (it at least has both lines above 80 on equity charts) but MACD histogram is starting to drop. Entry next week???? But yields on 10 year continue to go up.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Here are a few more to ponder. Hope you all have a Great weekend!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts. Best wishes to All! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts. Soaring once more... Best wishes to All!

 

[nasa1974]

Sure would be nice to finish March on a positive note.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Here are charts as of a few mins ago. I included extra info on SPX C Fund chart... Now includes chart on percentage of SPX stocks over 50-day Moving Average. It's a nice metric. Best wishes to All! :smile:

 

[Boghie]

Sure would be nice to finish March on a positive note.

Quiet man, you're jinxing it;damnit

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Here are charts. Gosh, really considered getting in...start of month is often good. But I missed my entry at mid month and just reeling from it ever since. Less than 30 mins to decide...ughhh...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I entered C fund 50%. Hoping this is only a small pull back and with upswing to continue in April.

Price did get above both 100 and 200 MAs. So, looks like strength...will see... This is not a move in line with my strategy...