DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Unless there's a huge Black Swan event, I just don't see much giveback right now. A lot of folks missed this Trump rally and dying to get back in. I see all the dips being bought, especially since they're talking about corporate tax cuts!
 
Thinking to exit today. Both DWCPF and SPX now have signal lines touching and look to soon negative on MACD. Price is now breeches 10 day EMA but not the 20. Still...I guess it would take more to do that given the large increases that occurred right after election.

Humm... I understand a vote happens Sunday on Italian banking but hear that no matter which way the vote goes it will impact our markets... I understood belief it would not be good. But early next week kinda starts the befinning of seasonal weakness before the Santable rally. So I have talked myself into exit to G fund. Would be nice if day ended positive.

Hope you all have s great day and weekend, and Best Wishes on zypur Investments !!!!!! :smile:
 
Wow! The market jump has been breathtaking!!! Wish I were in it. Yep... leapt off too early... gosh if only I had waited for the wick to touch 20 EMA line... which it still has not done. Why oh Why do I not follow strategy to a T? Well... there is supposed to be a pull back at the beginning of December that has always seemed to be cyclical... I will now wait and sit on my hands anxiously as the market rises and hope for a pull back before FOMC meeting. One IFT left!!! But now I wonder.... could it be that Santa arrived early this year???? Did Trump pop Rudolph's bum really hard this year or what???? :rolleyes: lol....:laugh:

santa-rocket-sleigh.jpg


Best wishes to everyone on your investments!!!!!!!!!! :smile:


Daily Chart - SPX
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

Daily Chart - DWCPF
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
 
Hello.....So the big rally continues, though we did have a little pull back today on our S and C fund charts. I guess Market is positioning for FOMC meeting tomorrow and announced fed rate decision on Wednesday.

I keep thinking should I buy in Wednesday or wait until Thursday? If there is an increase in Fed rate, market should pull back just a bit right??? I mean we all know probability is high. I get the feeling it might not make much of a difference, but I feel I've been off all year so why should this be any different??? Oh well...and looking at charts from Stockcharts tonight, price still has not touched the 20 EMA (Designated in these charts as the Bollinger Band mid-point ...dotted line). So at this point, still looks to be headed upward...

So I will CONSIDER an entry if it pulls back after FOMC meeting, but dang its still soooooo high!!! I guess if I jump in ...you all should do the opposite!!! :rolleyes: Ugghhh....off allllll year!

Hope you have a Good Evening and Best Wishes to you on your Investments!!!!!!!! :smile:

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If you can't see these charts, just click on links in my last post!
 
Good points DBA. It has been quite some time since we had a significant pullback in equities. Bonds are still taking a hit. RSi for SPX looks like it hit at around 90 and is not trending downward. It's dreamworld out there. Stocks have been manipulated for so long by the banks,Wall Street, PPT, and the Fed that one has to ask if there is any "there" there. I'm patiently waiting for my moment to jump back in...but I'll be much more careful this time around than I was last January. Who knows if we have a Santa rally this year. If we do I'm guessing it will be short and impulsive.

FS
 
I must agree. I really want to get in but at this point it is just sooooo high. I was hoping to jump in tomorrow with thought we would get a small pull back, but I think I am going to wait and see what happens. I think Santa came early!

Best wishes to you and everyone!!!!! :smile: Good Night!!!! :smile:
 
Hi Tsuanmi! I agree. Actually thinking today could be the only dip and a little blip at that! :D
I am very tempted to enter BUT you just never know. If they could raise the rate 1/2 pt and not say much else, this could be a very small dip today with continued upward movement even tomorrow. BUT you just never know what is going to fall out of their mouths!!! IF Yellin says too much about the next rate hike and says "early next year" then all hell could break loose. The minutes from this meeting get issued January 6. They meet again Jan 31 to Feb 1 (no press conference scheduled, but I think they will make a statement).

So, I will anxiously sit on my hands and wait. Uggh..... Looks like S fund has had a little pull back for a few days now and Slow Stochastic is dropping. Will see. I get the feeling entry today would be good as I think it continues on up, but the price on S chart is moving down. On the C fund chart, the price is right up near the upper Bollinger band... definitely within that beautiful 10 day EMA channel, with Slow Stochastic now moving downward very slightly around 85 and MACD still sloped up. Looks good, but so high. Waiting for a slight pull back. If it drops more today, then will see how it goes tomorrow morning to see if it continues downward.

I think this coming year is going to be GREAT. Will be a good year to buy and stay in much more often.

Take care. Hope you are all having a Great Day and Best Wishes to You!!!!!!!! :smile:

P.S. Click on LINKS under post #1723 above... auto update.
 
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Ok. Price still in 10 day channel for SPX. i fund is low right now with Slow Stochastic below 20. And S fund looks like it tooka brestger..maybe a little more downside but overall this market continues to want to go up. i am buying in...40S, 40C and 20-i fund. Wishing everyone a great weekend and Best Wishes on your Investments!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
Wow... can't believe its been half a month since I last posted:D. I think I have been posting on other threads here and just too busy traveling, Christmas, New Year's !!! I would love to say... Ho Ho Ho! But Santa didn't visit this year!!! Hum Bug!!! I'm so saaadddddddd.... was I that bad?? :(

I'm so confused and having to re-evaluate everything!!! Got my tail between my legs and head down.... I think I am right at about no gain for the year! Hummmm...what is that English term... bugger bugger bugger (if it means something really bad, please don't tell me)... but Definitely seems FEAR has gotten the best of me most of the year. So totally off.

Well, my New Year's resolution is to shake it off and TRY to not be so fearful. Now this is supposed to be the BEST part of the year from November through April!!! So, maybe if I just stay out when the 20 crosses below the 50 EMA and stay in (sit on my hands and bite my lip), I might make some money!! Plus I probably need to rely much more heavily on all my buddies here to lead me down the right path!!! I definitely enjoy the tips and all the great information you all have provided this past year. But must admit FEAR has been a very big factor...don't know why. I guess the closer I get to retirement, the more I realize how much is at risk. The money is becoming much more REAL!!!

I am able to retire in June 2017, but I will likely keep working another 4 years or so. Plus my grandfather used to tell my mom, and my mom told me, "You should work as long as you are eating." He obviously did not believe in "Retirement" while you were able-bodied. Plus my mom was so independent and always instilled that a woman should not rely on a man for support. So with both those things drilled in deeply, I will retire when I think I am ready. But I must admit that the prospect of having to make money last until I am in my mid-80s is a bit daunting---25-30 years?? That could be really tough because I really love spending money and having a good time!!! Working provides that, so we shall see... if I die early, others will be having fun with all that money! I will only ask that they have a few shots of Tequila, put one on my coffin, and sing me a song and dance me a jig!!! :D Yes... I know it sounds a bit dark, but its not meant to be...:smile: oh nooo..... ugghh... just now thought of Carrie Fisher. I bet she had no idea. Scary!

Best Wishes to Everyone on Your Investments!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
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Both Fear and Greed are dangerous...went through both right before retiring early. I don't think I will ever be able to go 100% in any single fund like many people do. Remember also that you will be getting a pension and TSP is only a part of your retirement. Good Luck:smile:
 
Thanks EA!!! I need to have HR provide me a very close estimate so I get an idea of where I am at on Retirement pay. Our secretary sent me some paper work last month so I just need to fill it out and send it in. That might help me feel better!! But for now, I just keep getting the queasy feeling anytime I am in the market!!! eeekkk :sick:
evilanne said:
Both Fear and Greed are dangerous...went through both right before retiring early. I don't think I will ever be able to go 100% in any single fund like many people do. Remember also that you will be getting a pension and TSP is only a part of your retirement. Good Luck:smile:
Click to expand...
 
Sticky pants still deployed ---amazingly. Yes, even with a seemingly positive day I want to jump ship. So I guess Fed minutes come out or came out today. Not sure if out yet. Hoping folks do not get anything new out of it. Seasonal weakness is supposed to kick in soon..by next week? So contemplating exit this week (maybe by tomorrow) with a reentry later in month.

Per my strategy, I should be getting out today! But I won't.... my buy in from 12/16 just now turned positive and I would like to book some coin before the exit. Then wait for weakness to re-enter around the 20th or so. Humm.....

Best Wishes to Everyone on Your Investments!!!!!!! :smile:
 
Has anyone ever joined or subscribed to Marty Chenard at Stocktiming.com. I did a free trial (on day 1 of 10 day). I wanted to check this out because there is so much talk about institutional investing, liquidity, etc. But I must say that so far, I am not impressed. Charts very fuzzy, lack detail...so much so that I cannot even tell what they reflect.

Reading the commentary is painful. Also the Day-to-day analysis notes (looked at them going back to mid last week) don't seem to change much from day to day but the biggie is that its very difficult to correlate the commentary to the charts. The commentary talks about thick red line crossing a thin red line and blue line and I am just scratching my head thinking what the hell are they saying and charts have nothing on them to give dates or say what the chart is. I am just wondering if I am missing something???

But more importantly, it let me realize the integrity of Tom C and the folks on this website. I must say getting that perspective makes me deeply appreciate the commentary here, and especially Tom C's daily commentary. Now that is REAL commentary with true analysis behind it. Great charts, fully labeled with dates and what is represented with chart settings, etc. So very meaningful and helpful!! Thank you so much Tom!!! :D ...and Happy New Year to everyone!

Wishing everyone the Best as we start 2017!!!!! :smile:
 
So very tempted to exit now.... but gosh with such a beautiful chart. I know. I know... it will back off but wow!

Slow Stochastic at 60 and headed up, MACD now turning up (still in negative territory), Bollinger Bands starting to contract. Leading up to this we have been in consolidation and yet right now we are hitting another high (at least until this afternoon... no telling what happens end of day with the institutional buyers). Well... price had dropped down out of the 10-day EMA channel to touch the 20 EMA last week (i.e. my signal is to exit 2-3 days later on bounce). But its hard to exit when price is now again in the 10-day EMA channel and looking to move up along the upper band and the 10,20 an 50 EMA lines are all sloped up! Though I have seen it go up, touch upper Bollinger and then reverse course sharply. So caution is warranted. Would like to see if it gets up to 80 on Slow Stochastic and then embeds. If so, stay a little longer.

Best Wishes to Everyone!!!!! :smile:

Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
 
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Contemplating the next move. Per strategy, I should have exited yesterday. Now charts look so good. But a short-term pull back should happen right?? Thing is... I am definitely positive right now on my buy-in of December 16.

S Fund - DWCPF - yesterday's action very nice. Now a tiny pull back and looks like indecision in market at this point of the day. Slow Stochastic has hit 80 but will it hold/embed? hum...
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XX:DWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XX:DWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

C Fund - DWCPF - doji -in 10 day channel on the daily chart. Slow Stochastic now around 80, but will it embed. Jobs report tomorrow. A little price slippage right now but what does the rest of the day hold? Hummm.....on the intraday 5 minute chart looks like it is sliding down the lower Bollinger band.
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

I Fund - EFA ( I want to exit this today! But I must exit others if I do so I have another IFT left to re-enter later in month - right now it is taking a nice leap!! But it always seems I Fund leaps are short lived and its just so erratic.)
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

So still undecided. Should I wait one more day?? hum..... Last year I tended to exit early and get in late. I'm in. So how now brown cow??? :scratchchin:

Best Wishes to Everyone on Your Investments!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
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Staying in ... but not liking it ! :( Looks like Mr. Market is contemplating the Fed minutes and waiting on jobs report tomorrow. Volume on S&P is low so far today.

I really want to exit the I fund as I have 20% there and it is on a very nice bounce up. But with C and S fund dropping today, it brings me back to a net -0- or close to that. Forget it!! Will wait until tomorrow and hopefully the jobs report will be to the market's liking so I can exit.

Take care and Best Wishes to Everyone on Your Investments!!!!!!!! :smile:

NOTE TO SELF: Next time your strategy says exit (i.e. post #1733) then EXIT...and especially if the market is doing well in the morning---Stick to the plan!!!!
 
Good morning! So...finally, I am exiting as market now looking better from the open. I am 2 days past due on exit called for by my strategy!. Yep... I wish I would have followed through on Wednesday.

But I just checked and I will still be positive for this trade that started on 12/16. So I will take it ...just hope prices stay at least marginally up through remainder of day. Part of me thinks prices could continue up through inauguration day....humm....

Maybe I do overthink things..:rolleyes:.. But its kinda my nature! Lol...:laugh: If seasonal weakness comes next week, i will be glad I got out today. If market decides to make a run up to 20K on Monday, I will fret but be okay with it. Will try to buy in around Inauguration day or as soon as there is a larger drop, but I don't expect anything like last year. Yes.. Still questioning if I should just stay in, but NO... Gosh ..gotta follow through.

Best wishes to everyone on Your Investments!!!!!!!! :smile:
 
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