DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

Note about charts: Looking at Weekly charts, and Slow Stochastic (on those charts) per my last post, you will notice that the Slow Stochastic is very good at keeping you in the market when prices are rising and out when things get a little gloomy. Best wishes on your investments!

P.S. These are just observations and not meant as financial or investment advice.

P.S.S. A couple weeks ago, JPCavin reported differences between Stockchart.com and charts from another chart company. I checked on Big Chart numbers since I post them on my thread. I noticed the EMAs on Big Charts were off...not properly calculated in their charts when compared to Stockcharts.com and per Ravensfan's computations, which were both correct. Since then, I noticed EMA numbers (including todays) are consistent with Stockcharts.com. I am monitoring that daily and will post if I see differences. Not sure what the fluke was in their charts, but its fixed now. In any case, you should double check if you like using Big Charts as I do.

 

[blueroadster]

Computation of an EMA begins with an SMA seed value. It takes many additional EMA calculation periods for the effects of the SMA seed to fully dissipate where the calculated EMA then normalizes. Formulas on the stockcharts website indicate that they use at least 250 periods after the SMA seed value to dissipate its effect for the resulting EMA. I don't know if this "rule" is incorporated in the free stock charts that can be generated on their site.

From time to time, I've noticed rather large differences in the calculated EMA values between the stockcharts and bigcharts websites. Such disparities are large enough for me to guess that the SMA seed value was not properly computed and/or enough periods have not passed for the SMA seed to dissipate.

oTo me, this is a big deal and a reason why I track the values on my own spreadsheet. Several technical indicators use an EMA and if the SMA seed is goobered up and enough periods have not passed to normalize, then the rest of the calculations will be goobered up as well. A good example is in the computation of TRIX that requires quadruple SMA seed value smoothing for the quadruple EMAs calculated (3 for TRIX and 1 for the signal).

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hello Blueroadster, you sound like you have a very good grasp on how to compute the EMAs.

Unfortunate, I don't have time to keep complex spreadsheets so I must rely on charts. I believe Stockcharts.com is the most accurate. I tend to think that the SMA should be fairly close to the EMA. But bottom line, I gotta rely on the charts. Best wishes to you!

 

[blueroadster]

No worries and I know what you mean...Computationally speaking though, EMA values are weighted more towards recent price action than SMA values. As a result, SMA values lag more (i.e., they do not hug recent price action movements like EMA values do). An arguably better alternative to EMA is WMA that uses a more holistic multiplier in its calculated values.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

No worries and I know what you mean...Computationally speaking though, EMA values are weighted more towards recent price action than SMA values. As a result, SMA values lag more (i.e., they do not hug recent price action movements like EMA values do). An arguably better alternative to EMA is WMA that uses a more holistic multiplier in its calculated values.

Hi, I have heard of WMA but don't know a lot about it. Will need to read up on it. Thanks!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Well... thar she blows! The market has gone through very tough times as of late. Hope our investment future gets brighter. This morning we are down, but hopefully by the afternoon buyers will step in. Best wishes to all my friends out there.

 

[Whipsaw]

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Wow.. Thank You for the Song WhipSaw! Your awesome ... I really needed a lift today. Yes... He's a Magic Man....yeahhh....awwwwwe... (singing--near the end of it--on original version). Love that song---this was a different version (live) that I had never heard. Like to sing it at karaoke.. can hit all notes except that ultra high "oooouuuuwwww" long notes that Ann and Nancy sing together (on the original long version)... too bad. Its hell getting old and losing range. But can still sing the heck out of it and really love hearing it and singing it. This version I could sing all the way through---that was fun! Thanks again!

 

[Whipsaw]

Wow.. Thank You for the Song WhipSaw! Your awesome ... I really needed a lift today. Yes... He's a Magic Man....yeahhh....awwwwwe... (singing--near the end of it--on original version). Love that song---this was a different version (live) that I had never heard. Like to sing it at karaoke.. can hit all notes except that ultra high "oooouuuuwwww" long notes that Ann and Nancy sing together (on the original long version)... too bad. Its hell getting old and losing range. But can still sing the heck out of it and really love hearing it and singing it. This version I could sing all the way through---that was fun! Thanks again!

I enjoy the heck out of that one too, glad it made your day

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Had to post this song to my thread cuz it's just one of my favorite all time songs.

Daryl Hall and Rob Thomas -Your Kiss Is On My List This is acoustic version. Just beautiful!! Posted on Music video threads too!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Ok..... Here is another.
Ok...here is another one.

Three Doors Down -Here Without You (Baby, but your still with me in my dreams)

 

[nasa1974]

Had to post this song to my thread cuz it's just one of my favorite all time songs.

Daryl Hall and Rob Thomas -Your Kiss Is On My List This is acoustic version. Just beautiful!! Posted on Music video threads too!

Good song, but I like the original the best. This version is just a little to slow for me.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good song, but I like the original the best. This version is just a little to slow for me.

Hi...I couldn't agree more. I love the fast upbeat cheerful version too! But for now, this version captures my pensive mood perfectly!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yes I will. I think I am going to "stick" with my current strategy. It looks like the water is getting choppier--market slightly down today. Will start to look for entry once all the indicators are looking up. Still looking at MACD and Slow Stochastics as primary indicators along with BBs. Definitely looking at the slopes and watching as I do believe the Bollinger bands will begin to contract. Seems to be taking its time though. Maybe another week or two??? Waiting to jump on Santa's boat!!! Hoping it does not come on as late as it has in recent past years (mid December?). Hoping for a little upside before then...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

TSP Daily and Weekly charts.

Here are charts links that I have posted in the past.

The DAILY charts are set to show Exponential moving Average (EMA) for 10, 20, 50 day averages, plus Bollinger Bands (BB) and MACD plus slow and fast Stochastics.

S fund -tracks DWCPF index -Daily (last 6 months)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XXWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XXWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

C fund - tracks SPX index-Daily (last 6 months)
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

I fund -tracks EFA index-Daily (last 6 months)
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

F Fund - tracks AGG index-Daily (last 6 months)
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF, AGG Advanced Chart - (NAR) AGG, iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com


WEEKLY charts.
These have "weekly" EMA 10, 20, 50 plus BBs, MACD, and The Stochastics (slow and fast).

S fund -tracks DWCPF index--- Weekly EMA (last 2 months)
Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XXWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XXWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

C fund - tracks SPX index--- Weekly EMA (last 2 months)
S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (SNC) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

I fund -tracks EFA index--- Weekly EMA (last 2 months)
iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, EFA Advanced Chart - (NAR) EFA, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

F Fund - tracks AGG index--- Weekly EMA (last 2 months)
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF, AGG Advanced Chart - (NAR) AGG, iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF Stock Price - BigCharts.com

Today, the S fund dropped slightly from 1050.28 to 1044.47. MACD slope is getting smaller and upper band beginning to flatten so it looks like market is topping out. Still expect price to move up and down and meander sideways as the bands begin to contract. Still think entry is a week or two out.
The C fund stayed at 2039.. Dropping just less than a fraction, ending the day with a cross. Looking at weekly indicators, looks like it might have more upside for a week or two. Thinking buy and hold is the way to go... Too high for my entry right now. Will hope for small pullback.

Best wishes on executing your strategies! DBAnnie

 

[Birchtree]

Sector rotations are a function of every bull market. Fear is still the strongest emotion keeping many investors out of this bull market.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Sector rotations are a function of every bull market. Fear is still the strongest emotion keeping many investors out of this bull market.

I must agree with you Birchtree!! I got out too early. Last day of October. This is a bull market and buy and hold is definitely a good position, even with the recent downturn. Of course, trying to profit by getting out before that downturn and riding it back up woud give you more..... BUT...I do believe I have been getting in and out too much during this bull and losing money because of it.


I'm now trying to find a bettter, more longer term strategy to ride that bull. Trying to find something in between to only exit during major downturns. Just how major though is the problem. Thinking to start using the weekly charts more now. Analyzing patterns for the past 5 years to see if there is a middle ground. I must admit though that my primary problem has been in not executing the strategy I have, which I think is a good one. Execution! No emotions involved--No fear---that is the key! Wish I could just do it and trust in my strategy enough. Happy investing!!!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hello --I think JPCavin had asked about weekly charts a couple weeks back. Check out this weekly three month chart on DCWPF = S fund. This chart shows how the MACD cross overs do not “fully” sync up with price action and misses upswings. I like the Stochastics best for analyzing the weekly charts. I am working on revising my strategy to consider weekly Stochastics a bit more before I look at dailies. So here's ma thinkin on it....

STOCHASTICS – ON “WEEKLY” CHARTS ONLY:
• SLOW STO IS BEST FOR ENTRY.
• FAST STOCHASTIC BEST FOR EXIT.

To get in early when price action is getting ready to ramp up, and out fast when things are going down.

MACD – ON “WEEKLY” CHARTS ONLY:
FAGETTABODIT ---Not that helpful especially on weekly charts. Too slow at default settings of 12/26. Slow Stochastic much better! However, you can look at the MACD slope –Just for Fun!!


Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, XXWCPF Advanced Chart - (DJW) XXWCPF, Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com

 

[jpcavin]

Your post led me to this article:
MACD And Stochastic: A Double-Cross Strategy

I like the settings and the strategy presented. What are your thoughts?

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Your post led me to this article:
MACD And Stochastic: A Double-Cross Strategy

I like the settings and the strategy presented. What are your thoughts?

Hi jpcavin,

That's a very good article on Investopedia article for double cross strategy. I've read it many times. It is an excellent article and good explanation of the double cross over method. I also like the links in that article to basics on how the MACD and Stochastics are computed. This article is one of the first articles I read on cross overs, and quite favored! I used that to start studying the DWCPF and SPX indices a little more than a year ago.

To put it into play, I am constantly studying how the MACD and Stochastics interact on the DWCPF (S fund ) "daily" charts. The strategy I currently use is based on those observations. Regarding crossovers of MACD and Stochastics, I have noticed that the two do not typically crossover on the same day on the DWCPF and SPX---too bad!! Would be nice if they did. There is usually a few days or more difference--MACD lags. So I look at MACD slope, but look at Slow Stochastic to get me in and out. It's a little riskier on entry but much better on exit.

Just to clarify, I extensively use both these indicators plus Bollinger bands and the 10, 20, and 50 day EMAs to enter and exit market with decisions based on "DAILY" charts. I also look at the slopes of all lines. MACD slope severity is important. I also pay attention to intraday prices when they start hitting the 20day EMA line when we are in an upward channel within the 10 day EMA. This gives some notice of probable downward price action within the next few days. I also look at where we are at on the Bollingers, above, at or below midpoint, and whether we are constricted, expanding or consolidating.

I am now trying to incorporate use of indicators based on "WEEKLY" charts. I'm thinking they may give a better indication of whether to even contemplate an exit or entry during the following week, and then use the dailies to cherry pick the actual IFT date. I think this will improve outcomes. Still studying it. I feel very confident about not using MACD to contemplate entry or exit in the following week when looking at "weekly" charts, but definitely look at it on "daily" charts.

I think the best thing is to read a lot about many indicators, pick those that are easy to understand where you can see clear relations between them and actual price action to develop strategies. The biggest issue is not executing on time, letting doubt/ fear/ news slip into the equation. Ugghhhh... It's a profit killer!!

Also, since we are in bull market, it's hard to discount a buy and hold strategy. My hope is to revise strategy to stay in market longer (while riding the bull) but find a happy middle ground to exit before large drops. Haven't found it yet! Let me know if you do!

Best wishes on your investing! DBAnnie.