DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

Deleting dup

 

[Epic]

Here..........thought I'd throw these up here while she's away.

7-8-22 (S,C,I)

 

[Epic]

I think she's back tomorrow . . . . .
7-11-22 (S,C,I)

 

[TommyIV]

Thank you DreamboatEpic :hail:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

YES...Thank you DreamboatEpic! :cheesy:

Here are charts. I am thinking there is possible chance for F fund entry.. Humm...

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good morning! :smile: Here are charts to mull over... I am not entering F fund. It looks like good entry but I do not want to go in and then have to exit if it goes south, and then be left without an IFT to enter into stocks if the chance materializes. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Notice that Bollinger Bands are starting to constrict! Big move coming. But, which way will it go? I Fund already touching lower band so I tend to think down. Also, for both S and C funds, price has gotten RSI(7) to go below 50 and Full Stochastic has gone down below 50. Looks like it is headed towards Slow Sto 20? Hummmm...

 

[LTJPFED]

Been watching those bands compress, over what the last week? Pretty sure a big move is coming. I thought sure we'd see some action today, we did initially, but has come back and really .5% down isn't a big deal imho. Not sure what a big move constitutes anymore but my guess is a 3-4% move, shrug.

I just have a feeling the markets will continue to do what it wants to do regardless of what everyone thinks or says. So of course it will get us leaning the wrong way. Maybe this comeback today is lulling people in only to give a big swoosh down by COB. I am not calling that but just saying we always zig and the market zags. Unless of course you are one of the media talking heads that seem to play both sides here lately. There might be a few good ones out there but some of these people one day say it's going to head lower and the next day they say we will be heading higher.

I am sitting tight for now as well. Was checking out F early last week, late the week before, but I am not sure that is a place I want to go right now with my 2nd move of the month. I'll be watching the potential big move in C/S to see where we are at weeks end. As much as I'd like to buy some dips I'm trying to be patient to wait for that next shoe to drop. I know a lot of bad news MAY be already priced in but maybe we do retest the lows before we bounce and if we do that then I'll be ready to move. If it doesn't and we roll through some of these resistance levels then I'll try to find a decent spot to jump in.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Good morning! :smile: Here are charts to mull over... I am not entering F fund. It looks like good entry but I do not want to go in and then have to exit if it goes south, and then be left without an IFT to enter into stocks if the chance materializes. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Notice that Bollinger Bands are starting to constrict! Big move coming. But, which way will it go? I Fund already touching lower band so I tend to think down. Also, for both S and C funds, price has gotten RSI(7) to go below 50 and Full Stochastic has gone down below 50. Looks like it is headed towards Slow Sto 20? Hummmm...

Don't see what the catalyst would be for new lows?
30% drop of the S&P from its old high, priced in Inflation massive Fed Hikes and Recession.
Now Oil supply is increasing, demand leveling off, price of oil down 25% of recent highs a month ago with no reason to think it will go back to old highs as OPEC is now pumping more, and peak driving season ends in 7 weeks.
Oil prices have been main catalyst for inflation, along with supply chains and real estate rising.
Real estate coming down well of its recent highs, and supply chains getting worked out.
As a result sellers are getting exhausted, even today the morning huge early selloff at the 9.1% inflation number, couldn't hold for more than 90 min as buyers quickly jumped in & Stock indices got back to near level, as analysts digested that this June number was not factoring in recent sharp falls in Oil and other Commodities.

I say Next Big Move is UPWARDS.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Bands have been tightening for a few weeks but constricting a lot during past few 2-4 days. The direction will be triggered by Fed decisions at next meeting, inflation and EARNINGS reported in next few weeks. Will see what happens. A 2-3% move in one day would be big, but I expect something more than that over a few day timeframe... Not an extended rise...but anything can happen!

I want to earn something so F fund caught my eye yesterday, but I am holding my two IFTs for now. I have heard a few talking heads say they expect another stock drop going below June lows, but I am simply going to continue watching weekly and daily charts, price indexes (producer numbers come out tomorrow) and RSI, MACD default, Slow Sto, and candlesticks. I think F fund might pop short-term due to falling bond rates, but don't expect it to last long. I also am holding in G, but would like to make something before next shoe drops. Earnings could be the catalyst for another drop, but we will see.

I have been wondering what specific mutual funds are now offered by TSP. I really don't want to move anything until I see a list of the specific mutual funds offered. I am not aware of any list /sneak peek of funds. Without that information, I cannot seriously consider entering those funds... It's kinda like when you have a salesman who will not show you the one details. I am not trusting it so far. Where is the List??????

Been watching those bands compress, over what the last week? Pretty sure a big move is coming. I thought sure we'd see some action today, we did initially, but has come back and really .5% down isn't a big deal imho. Not sure what a big move constitutes anymore but my guess is a 3-4% move, shrug.

I just have a feeling the markets will continue to do what it wants to do regardless of what everyone thinks or says. So of course it will get us leaning the wrong way. Maybe this comeback today is lulling people in only to give a big swoosh down by COB. I am not calling that but just saying we always zig and the market zags. Unless of course you are one of the media talking heads that seem to play both sides here lately. There might be a few good ones out there but some of these people one day say it's going to head lower and the next day they say we will be heading higher.

I am sitting tight for now as well. Was checking out F early last week, late the week before, but I am not sure that is a place I want to go right now with my 2nd move of the month. I'll be watching the potential big move in C/S to see where we are at weeks end. As much as I'd like to buy some dips I'm trying to be patient to wait for that next shoe to drop. I know a lot of bad news MAY be already priced in but maybe we do retest the lows before we bounce and if we do that then I'll be ready to move. If it doesn't and we roll through some of these resistance levels then I'll try to find a decent spot to jump in.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi FWM, Aside from possible bad earnings coming out over the next few weeks (definitely possible), I only see technical indicators moving downward probably based on overall market fear; sentiment about inflation, economy and assumptions about the length and depth of the possible coming recession.

I don't place a lot of reliance on drop of 30% to mean we are at the end because the 2007/2008 drop was much higher.
I don't place any reliance on OPEC because we can't control what they do, and they really don't like us.
While oil price and demand is dropping short-term, winter is around the corner and natural gas demand will increase. Also, I understand some US energy producers are choosing to not upgrade facilities with additional investment due to risks.

Policy-wise no one is doing anything to increase our oil, natural gas or nuclear power production, so the problem will continue and no one in the administration truly wants to fix it and the energy industry has its hands tied (regulatory) or they are smart enough to realize they should not risk money investing to increase production due to the hostile political environment. It's just too risky. Think about it...all those who invested in keystone pipeline only to be shut down with an executive order that caused their investment to go belly up. It takes a couple years to produce energy and a lot of money invested. Yep, too risky. This will not turn around until a business/energy friendly administration is in place. My guess is we will have continuing inflation and/or high gas/food prices for a few years. ...lol...its not personal sonny, it's just business!

PS. We will still have short relief rallies!... And they could be strong! But overall, it's a Bear until it's not! Be careful...it's a jungle out there!

Don't see what the catalyst would be for new lows?
30% drop of the S&P from its old high, priced in Inflation massive Fed Hikes and Recession.
Now Oil supply is increasing, demand leveling off, price of oil down 25% of recent highs a month ago with no reason to think it will go back to old highs as OPEC is now pumping more, and peak driving season ends in 7 weeks.
Oil prices have been main catalyst for inflation, along with supply chains and real estate rising.
Real estate coming down well of its recent highs, and supply chains getting worked out.
As a result sellers are getting exhausted, even today the morning huge early selloff at the 9.1% inflation number, couldn't hold for more than 90 min as buyers quickly jumped in & Stock indices got back to near level, as analysts digested that this June number was not factoring in recent sharp falls in Oil and other Commodities.

I say Next Big Move is UPWARDS.

 

[felixthecat]

Hi FWM, Aside from possible bad earnings coming out over the next few weeks (definitely possible), I only see technical indicators moving downward probably based on overall market fear; sentiment about inflation, economy and assumptions about the length and depth of the possible coming recession.

I don't place a lot of reliance on drop of 30% to mean we are at the end because the 2007/2008 drop was much higher.
I don't place any reliance on OPEC because we can't control what they do, and they really don't like us.
While oil price and demand is dropping short-term, winter is around the corner and natural gas demand will increase. Also, I understand some US energy producers are choosing to not upgrade facilities with additional investment due to risks.

Policy-wise no one is doing anything to increase our oil, natural gas or nuclear power production, so the problem will continue and no one in the administration truly wants to fix it and the energy industry has its hands tied (regulatory) or they are smart enough to realize they should not risk money investing to increase production due to the hostile political environment. It's just too risky. Think about it...all those who invested in keystone pipeline only to be shut down with an executive order that caused their investment to go belly up. It takes a couple years to produce energy and a lot of money invested. Yep, too risky. This will not turn around until a business/energy friendly administration is in place. My guess is we will have continuing inflation and/or high gas/food prices for a few years. ...lol...its not personal sonny, it's just business!

PS. We will still have short relief rallies!... And they could be strong! But overall, it's a Bear until it's not! Be careful...it's a jungle out there!

DB has it right in my opinion. While the bear rally’s will come and go…the downtrend will likely continue into 2023 as recession, inflation, and even slowing and then negative job growth begins to enter the picture.
If we pattern the similarities between 1972-1975 where rising inflation and FED intervention began to put a brake on the economy…well…that really made a mess of things even after the first year of big losses. Russia/pandemic influences brings us to even closer parity to the 1972-1974 beating or the 2007-2008 severe beating. I believe it is safe to assume that the damage to the stock market is far from over and the economy is going to be slowing in the first half of 2023. I’m going to factor in the baby boomer pulling out of the stock market because they are retiring in bigger numbers. I’m also going to factor in Gen X which are more likely to stay into the market no matter what since they have lived by the mentality that time is on their side. Therefore…a slow stepdown for the year will become more erratic into 2023 as the recession worsens. So that shoe to drop is coming but the grind down we are seeing will painfully continue until the whammo late this year or in first half of 2023. If an exterior event occurs like Russia backs off Eukraine …that couId change the timeline. I estimate the markets will begin rebounding in earnest before June of next year. Maybe May at the earliest. It is also possible that 2023 continues to be ugly all year if the Russia/covid situation does not back off. We are certainly in a bad pickle right now and the FED will have a very hard time saving the stock market from more pain to come. This is going to be a long road to recovery. Perhaps recovering recent highs by 2025 at the earliest. There is evidence right now we are in a recession (We officially will verify this by the end of July). Retail stores are already in recession mode to increase sales to bring down increasing inventories. I don’t see us escaping this time so easy.

 

[LTJPFED]

DB here is the link to Tom's post for those MF's: https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/tsp-talk...-tsp-mutual-funds-autotracker.html#post673251

I think someone was talking about getting into an energy MF back when TSP opened back up. I'd be curious if they made a little money since energy seemed to be doing pretty well through June. I'm not dabbling yet. I'm not educated enough to start so until then it's the basic funds for me.

Good discussion in the thread by the way. I think the markets yesterday sold off with that initial data from CPI but sellers got exhausted but then again after getting some buyers stepping in they faded as well. Maybe it was more of a digestion day, plus toss in PPI today I believe, more earning reports, and still markets on edge with what FOMC decision will be later this month. Maybe the markets were saying let's hold our horses and wait for more data before breaking one way or another.

Today looks to be different. Follow through to the downside this morning so far, markets haven't even opened. So who knows where we may end up by COB. I'm getting the itch to dip my toes but the markets could be moving pretty violently the rest of this month. Don't want to be on the wrong side. I've got my popcorn ready and looking for the opportunities. G for now as well for me, unless of course we get some crazy selloffs that would make me raise my eyebrows.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Agree with both of you. Time to sit and watch a little longer. But my popcorn and butter are starting to cool. opcorn: Ugghh...patience! Even the F Fund is dropping!:blink: Glad I did not enter, but strategy called for entry...ugghhh... Seems nothing is safe in TSP. But wondering about those thousands of mutual funds. Where is the freaking list? Must we bite before we see the menu? I really dislike the "new and improved" site! The designers truly suck! Got all that money for scrappy site.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good morning, Here are charts a bit early. No change in direction from yesterday, except F fund now reversing course to move down along with stocks.

View attachment 54924

View attachment 54925

View attachment 54926

View attachment 54927

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Here they are again. Let's see if they continue display after I leave.

View attachment 54928


View attachment 54929


View attachment 54930


View attachment 54931

 

[tsptalk]

Here they are again. Let's see if they continue display after I leave.

They work for me!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I guess its just not working for me today. I just tried and they were valid and opened, but can't see all four at one time. Hummm....logged out and back in and they don't pop open automatically when viewing the post. I can open and view each one individually. Sometimes, later in day, he links turn into invalid attachments and no longer able to open and view individually. Just not sure why that happens. Will yes later to see I that happens. Hope you all have great day!

PS you should be able to view permalink charts at my page 356, post #4264.

 

[tsptalk]

Right, I had to click on them to view, but that's better than a dead link.

 

[Boghie]

Beware the 'Ides of F'.

Bonds are priced mostly by math. When the FED jacks the FED Rate by a point the price of the existing bonds in the F-Fund will dump. If that happens (pure math) then there will be some panic selling. However, in bonds, that panic doesn't last.

Like you say, there is nothing out there to revive stock prices. What business is going to risk major investment in this environment. Unlike your belief, I don't know if things will 'immediately' recover because of a political turnover. There may have to be a long period of business friendly policies before capital investment revives. I think we will actually see capital investment pullback in a major way soon.

Keep your powder dry. The 'F' gets an 'F' in periods of inflation. Our problem is the equities (C/S/I) get an 'F' in periods of recession - and I think we have both!!!

 

[Epic]

wondering about those thousands of mutual funds. Where is the freaking list? Must we bite before we see the menu? I really dislike the "new and improved" site! The designers truly suck! Got all that money for scrappy site.