DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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Yep...chop chop is the game. I expect it will go up.... But but but...I am sticking to my parameters. I put in Red lines to remind myself to not get too giddy when I see large up days. :D also MACD default histogram, while growing less negative still has MACD line below it's signal line. So, no go bro! :smile:

While I wait... I am just keeping patient. Been watching Peaky Blinders series...new season 6 came out, but started over. Glad I did. I had forgotten a lot. Great series and very good music...some old, some very old and some newer...

https://www.loudersound.com/features/peaky-blinders-bbc2-netflix-nick-cave-white-stripes-jack-white-pj-harvey-cillian-murphy



Complete list/links for songs...all seasons to date

https://www.what-song.com/Tvshow/100464/Peaky-Blinders


:smile:
 
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Yup.... I'm being patient right along with ya. Crazy Kangaroo "Up, Down, Up, Down" chart action just isn't my thing. :1244::1244:
What I will be on the lookout for is when the S&P hits the 200 week moving average. That's where it's bounced back the last 2 times it fell off a cliff, although the Covid-19 crash took us a little further south, it reversed and went Up quickly shortly there after.
That's my Target and I'm stickin to it . . . . . . :nuts::laugh:

 
Good morning, Here are charts as of a few mins ago. So yesterday morning turned around but then ended the day negative. It's up now, but will see how it closes.

Best wishes to you all. :smile:

01 - S FUND - DWCPF DAILY.png


02 - C FUND - SPX DAILY.png


03 - I FUND -EFA DAILY.png


04 - F FUND - AGG DAILY.png
 
Very close to hitting my parameters for entry, but this is also nearing point where drops have occurred during past 6 months or so. Parameters not yet hit. I will what happens next week. Ugghhh....
 
I know DBA has taken long-term residence in the G-fund, but is anyone itching to step back into stocks after this week? Or is there too much technical traffic to trust a true turnaround?
 
TommyIV said:
I know DBA has taken long-term residence in the G-fund, but is anyone itching to step back into stocks after this week? Or is there too much technical traffic to trust a true turnaround?
Click to expand...

In a Bear Market (which we are in right now) that would be called "Selling Low and Buying High".
In a Bear Market, you want to buy when you are at new lows, then fade any short term rallies...unless one assumes the worst of the Inflation/Recession fears are over?
 
FireWeatherMet said:
In a Bear Market (which we are in right now) that would be called "Selling Low and Buying High".
In a Bear Market, you want to buy when you are at new lows, then fade any short term rallies...unless one assumes the worst of the Inflation/Recession fears are over?
Click to expand...

So do you plan on locking in some of your C-fund return from the past week? This could be the short term rally you're referring to.
 
Sounds good FWM. My issue with buying earlier this year, when I thought it was low and starting to turn up, is that breakouts were too short lived and I lost money. I noticed during past 6 months, the better bear rallies did hit certain parameters that gave a little longer upswing before dropping back to even lower levels. No matter what, any entries during this bear trend are risky. With quickness of upswing, I definitely fear it is high, but upswings all go up quickly. Question to me is how long will it continue up and is there enough time to make anything. Also if you buy at what you think is a low, it still could continue down a lot more.

What we are seeing today looks good, but this is typically where the bear rally reverses course (based on what has been happening during past 6 months). So, it might be a while before I buy in...but if my parameters hit, indicating it could be a longer lived rally, I will enter partly only for a few days. If I do, I definitely plan to reduce exposure as soon as some money is made to lock in and reduce risk of loss on the rest. Still considering if it is even worth the risk!

Congrats on your partial exit...Today is a great day to reduce exposure and pocket some coin! :D
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Sounds good FWM. My issue with buying earlier this year, when I thought it was low and starting to turn up, is that breakouts were too short lived and I lost money. I noticed during past 6 months, the better bear rallies did hit certain parameters that gave a little longer upswing before dropping back to even lower levels. No matter what, any entries during this bear trend are risky. With quickness of upswing, I definitely fear it is high, but upswings all go up quickly. Question to me is how long will it continue up and is there enough time to make anything. Also if you buy at what you think is a low, it still could continue down a lot more.

What we are seeing today looks good, but this is typically where the bear rally reverses course (based on what has been happening during past 6 months). So, it might be a while before I buy in...but if my parameters hit, indicating it could be a longer lived rally, I will enter partly only for a few days. If I do, I definitely plan to reduce exposure as soon as some money is made to lock in and reduce risk of loss on the rest. Still considering if it is even worth the risk!

Congrats on your partial exit...Today is a great day to reduce exposure and pocket some coin! :D
Click to expand...

You're doing very well so far this year staying put.
 
I can feel the tension for everyone on the lily pad itching to jump off. I wish I was on the lily pad. At least there is positive numbers staying put, as little as it may be. I just wish I was having that itch. I have just over a year before I move my TSP funds to my outside 401k. I hope I can recover most of my negative numbers, so I don't have a large loss at transfer. Good luck to everyone.
 
Here are some collected random thoughts to ponder for anyone off or on the lily pad: 1. Late May SP500 oversold rally just goes over the 20-day MA (currently 3950) then fails 2. A move slightly above 4000 would fill two large downside gaps. 3. The VIX would have to drop below 200-day MA (currently 24) for outright bullishness
 
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Good thoughts from everyone. I am nearly at -9% for year and not wanting to risk a lot, and yet want to chip away at that loss. Entry is a tough call either way... I am waiting another day and assess daily. Best wishes to you all! :smile:

PS. I am still thinking about what FWM said. ....buy low, sell high.... Simple strategy and yet so hard to execute well. I am thinking to go back to my older strategy of entering when Slow Sto gets below 20 and starts to rise.... Uuuuuhhh... Gotta play at some point...
 
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