https://on.mktw.net/397AO8i Check out this article from MarketWatch - The stock market and inflation: How the S&P 500 performs on CPI report days
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DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk
- Thread starter DreamboatAnnie
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felixthecat
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Dang…todays CPI is ugly…jumps above March high number. This just sucks. Inflation still climbing. FED acted way too slow. Tough times look to continue for the forseeable future.
Thanks for the link cedarpine. Don't want to hijack DBA's thread but interesting discussion on all this. With the CPI number being higher than projected what does that do for the Fed next week? Some discussing more than 50 BP hike should be in play now. Maybe a 75 or 100? What would that do for the markets? Would they really move higher thinking that a higher hike would tame inflation faster and therefore would benefit the economy? Not sure but interesting points.
All I know is now I think all that rangebound action over the last 10 days or so, except yesterday, was simply consolidation/reallocations by institutional moves. Tom mentioned in this mornings report about little insider selling. I believe all this just was just that. Institutional moves were reallocating for just the selloff yesterday and today, although still early and we know markets can reverse. Perhaps some downside protection being done over the last week in front loading the CPI number. As cedarpine pointed out the triple witching, which ironically I have heard no analyst speak of the last couple days but I haven't had ear to news all day either. We might see this day have some serious volume and a bigger down day than yesterday. Tom and others are always saying they try to get us leaning the wrong way. Is the downside the wrong way? Maybe they are trying to push this down going into the FOMC which may turn out to be a higher BP hike and in turn pushes the markets higher? IDK. My head hurts thinking about all this lol.
Trade what we see not what we think will happen right. At this point we are down, market hasn't opened, anything can happen so we could trade in green or flat by COB. I thought about a move the other day and now thinking about it even more. Was waiting for some dips so maybe I will dip my toes in today. All that talk of a change in the BP rate hike has me thinking though. That would be the only thing that could reverse the markets I would think. My gut says what I've been thinking all along is we were going to go back to retest the lows. With all the data out now and looking at the charts I'm thinking that is the direction we will go short term. The question is when to jump off the lily pad and how much. I need more coffee lol.
All I know is now I think all that rangebound action over the last 10 days or so, except yesterday, was simply consolidation/reallocations by institutional moves. Tom mentioned in this mornings report about little insider selling. I believe all this just was just that. Institutional moves were reallocating for just the selloff yesterday and today, although still early and we know markets can reverse. Perhaps some downside protection being done over the last week in front loading the CPI number. As cedarpine pointed out the triple witching, which ironically I have heard no analyst speak of the last couple days but I haven't had ear to news all day either. We might see this day have some serious volume and a bigger down day than yesterday. Tom and others are always saying they try to get us leaning the wrong way. Is the downside the wrong way? Maybe they are trying to push this down going into the FOMC which may turn out to be a higher BP hike and in turn pushes the markets higher? IDK. My head hurts thinking about all this lol.
Trade what we see not what we think will happen right. At this point we are down, market hasn't opened, anything can happen so we could trade in green or flat by COB. I thought about a move the other day and now thinking about it even more. Was waiting for some dips so maybe I will dip my toes in today. All that talk of a change in the BP rate hike has me thinking though. That would be the only thing that could reverse the markets I would think. My gut says what I've been thinking all along is we were going to go back to retest the lows. With all the data out now and looking at the charts I'm thinking that is the direction we will go short term. The question is when to jump off the lily pad and how much. I need more coffee lol.
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Great points LTJPFED... And thank you to everyone! :smile:
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Here are charts... Ugly!
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Charts as of a few mins ago.
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Obviously, with this market action I am not yet looking at an entry. Would need to see MACD default cross above its signal line, or something positive. Will be watching indicators for a very short turnaround. It's an ugly afternoon with S and down 5.24% a few minutes ago. 
I hear some on FBN (Kaultbaum) indicating Fed would need to increase rates 2% on Wednesday and even then, that would not be enough to slow inflation. Just too little, too late. Will be interesting to see what action they take Wednesday. Definitely want to hear that speech and how Powell answers questions.
Best wishes to everyone!
I hear some on FBN (Kaultbaum) indicating Fed would need to increase rates 2% on Wednesday and even then, that would not be enough to slow inflation. Just too little, too late. Will be interesting to see what action they take Wednesday. Definitely want to hear that speech and how Powell answers questions.
Best wishes to everyone!
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Larry Kudlow's show on Fox Business News today was VERY good. Lots of information about what is needed to bring down inflation. Stats on US oil and gas production. It will repeat at 4:00AM CT.
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Hi, Here are charts. As of yesterday, S Fund is below the Pre-Covid high of February 2020.
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Charts
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
charts
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
charts
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
No entry yet. I want to see RSI 7 get above the 50 line and MACD default (12,26,9) line cross above its signal line in effort to avoid getting caught by a Whipsaw! I entered plenty of Failed bear rallies during past 6 months, so this is strategy to avoid that. Also like to see Slow Sto go above 30-40...again to avoid whipsaw.
But even if those give me a go signal, I am not overstaying my welcome... Very short entry. Obviously, any entry this year is high risk. Market will not be forgiving during a Bear market. It is stair-stepping down more than up. making money will be hard...but I do believe it is possible if using good parameters, sticking with entry/exit rules, not failing to execute as soon as they hit and some luck. I am still studying which parameters/indicators to use.
Will see how this pans out. Hoping for Gold!
I hope you all have a great long Juneteenth weekend! :smile:
PS. Monday is Fed Holiday and I have not yet checked if market will be open.
But even if those give me a go signal, I am not overstaying my welcome... Very short entry. Obviously, any entry this year is high risk. Market will not be forgiving during a Bear market. It is stair-stepping down more than up.
making money will be hard...but I do believe it is possible if using good parameters, sticking with entry/exit rules, not failing to execute as soon as they hit and some luck. I am still studying which parameters/indicators to use. Will see how this pans out. Hoping for Gold!
I hope you all have a great long Juneteenth weekend! :smile:
PS. Monday is Fed Holiday and I have not yet checked if market will be open.
Last edited:
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Hoping you all had a Happy and Restful Father's Day! 
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Woo...hooo....NASA! Glad to hear you had a great time with family! That is what it's all about. :smile:
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
Charts as of a few mins ago.
DreamboatAnnie
Well-known member
There will be Fed presidents talking just about every day this week and Powell speaks to Congress both Wed &Thurs mornings. Hummm...
