DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

SPX bounce just above 3800?

Hi Whipsaw,
I had strategy entry for C fund on 7/18 when price on SPX was near 3825 with reduced exposure or full exit around 3960. Right now it looks to be a little higher 3977. Looks to be testing support at 50EMA. All stock indexes look like they want to move up. Let's see how far they go! But for most, they are all trending sideways overall. Best wishes to you and everyone! :smile:

PS. Let's see what Fed says later today.

 

[Whipsaw]

DBA,
I think FWM has the right sight picture, I need to stop procrastinating and move in. Fed hikes have resulted in higher stock prices, similar to the last time this went on in the 70s(?). Was looking for a run down to 3800 or so as that is a support line from the last two lows.

Whipsaw

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Annie, please forgive me...don't mean to pollute your thread....just a bit euphoric after 2.6% 1 day gain.

Don't see what the catalyst would be for new lows?
30% drop of the S&P from its old high, priced in Inflation massive Fed Hikes and Recession.
Now Oil supply is increasing, demand leveling off, price of oil down 25% of recent highs a month ago with no reason to think it will go back to old highs as OPEC is now pumping more, and peak driving season ends in 7 weeks.
Oil prices have been main catalyst for inflation, along with supply chains and real estate rising.
Real estate coming down well of its recent highs, and supply chains getting worked out.
As a result sellers are getting exhausted, even today the morning huge early selloff at the 9.1% inflation number, couldn't hold for more than 90 min as buyers quickly jumped in & Stock indices got back to near level, as analysts digested that this June number was not factoring in recent sharp falls in Oil and other Commodities.

I say Next Big Move is UPWARDS.

 

[Whipsaw]

Don't let your head get toooo big, FWM. :nuts:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

here are today's charts! :smile: Bulls are definitely charging. Upper resistance at Upper Bollinger band and then 100 day MA.

 

[tsptalk]

Don't let your head get toooo big, FWM. :nuts:

Sometimes we have to brag when we can, because it can be a fleeting moment. But the market sure likes to humble us when we do.

Good job FWM!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Anyone in market this week gets a big Congrats from me! Very Happy for you and I am always happy when TSP folks hit the mark.

My only concern was whether FWM was expressing his euphoria on my thread to take a dig at me? Maybe I am wrong about that and will give benefit of the doubt. I had read his very good analysis on his thread...logical and well thought out. However, my current strategy does not consider the news, but I might eventually factor in Fibonacci retracement.

I have been notating the action my strategy would have me take if I were in market. As you all know, I do not always follow it due to my own fear and risk tolerance. My strategy would have had me exit earlier, before the Fed meeting. I stick by that conservative bear strategy. I must stick to reading charts as I see them. But I continue to learn and that is what is important. At some point I will confirm how much would be gained if following it strictly. I did notice the large space between the MACD and its signal line...may need to put more weight on that when determining full exit.

Wishing you all the best and a Great Weekend! :smile:

Here are today's charts.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I have been displaying my strategy in and outs since Mid-May. I have considered not posting them as this is just my read and I am not a market expert. Will see how long I continue to post that.

 

[Bquat]

I have been displaying my strategy in and outs since Mid-May. I have considered not posting them as this is just my read and I am not a market expert. Will see how long I continue to post that.

I am kind of thinking the same thing. My charts keep getting overwhelmed by the news push all the time. I have a fear that the market is falsely propped up but I don't have any proof. I am going to check out how the premium services are doing because today's market seems like news trading instead of market analysis.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I have been displaying my strategy in and outs since Mid-May. I have considered not posting them as this is just my read and I am not a market expert. Will see how long I continue to post that.

Please keep posting them...I am no expert at all on MACD and STO and enjoy reading your take on them.

Anyone in market this week gets a big Congrats from me! Very Happy for you and I am always happy when TSP folks hit the mark.

My only concern was whether FWM was expressing his euphoria on my thread to take a dig at me? Maybe I am wrong about that and will give benefit of the doubt.

Here are today's charts.

Sorry...no dig here (except for maybe a friendly one, to someone else, on my own Account Talk-lol)....had some wine that evening... and was just feeling good that my theories came to fruition.
But like Toms said, one can get humbled very quickly by the markets, I'm sure my Day of Reckoning will be coming at some point, (it always does) esp if I stray from my system of staying ahead of the major indices, by using small baby steps of outs and ins...but staying mostly in stocks, unless the world is ending 2008-Mar 2009...and Jan-June this year.

Have a great weekend. :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Bquat, I get that feeling as well. The markets were falsely propped for many years with quantitative easing. So eventually it must come down, but so far it's only come down close to what it was before the pandemic. I do believe the Fed speak on Wednesday was purposely dovish. Election is coming up and there are props to deny a recession. I do wonder how much of the Fed balance sheet is unwinding. I get the feeling maybe they will not get to that with any fervor until mid-November.

I have said I don't consider or "look at the news" but I need to clarify that. I do listen to the news every day, but don't believe it can be relied on to make a decision when it hits the street because by then it's too late. I believe the market moving "news" is already known to those in the know before that news hits the street. Kinda like Trading Places but in many other forms. In that movie Mortimer and Randolph Duke, of Duke and Duke were buying info not yet disclosed on commodities trading. But I do believe there are many other ways that insiders get advanced news and trade in advance using that news. Then subtle telltale signs can be seen using technical indicators and algorithms. That is what I am trying to see....those hidden telltale signs. Yes, you can think I am crazy but I actually heard a long-term professional trader mention that last year! Wow! Made me feel good to know someone else thinks that too! Huh!

So, I continue studying technical indicators, daily and weekly price action/candles, volume and search for divergences. The news is baking into those charts and then explodes into price action..

Ugghhh... It becomes a big pain and overwhelming at times to study charts, price action, etc. So much seems rigged... Knowledge on Institutional buying, after hours trading, middlemen who set/execute the trades. I am glad I like studying charts, and that could be viewed as crazy but in a goodway or so I hope! :smile:

FWM, You have very good reason to be proud of nailing it! You did very good in your analysis. Best wishes to you and everyone! :smile:

I am kind of thinking the same thing. My charts keep getting overwhelmed by the news push all the time. I have a fear that the market is falsely propped up but I don't have any proof. I am going to check out how the premium services are doing because today's market seems like news trading instead of market analysis.

 

[Epic]

I have been displaying my strategy in and outs since Mid-May. I have considered not posting them as this is just my read and I am not a market expert. Will see how long I continue to post that.

I am kind of thinking the same thing. My charts keep getting overwhelmed by the news push all the time. I have a fear that the market is falsely propped up but I don't have any proof. I am going to check out how the premium services are doing because today's market seems like news trading instead of market analysis.

Please, Please, Please keep posting your thoughts and info (but only if you want). It's soooo much better to hear and see different views on the market from multiple sources. Everyone has a different take, so just put it out there and let the reader decide whether they take your interpretation and analysis to heart. Just do your thing and ignore the rest. Works for me......:nuts::laugh:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Thank you Epic! :smile: I just don't want anyone to take the calls (green & red vertical lines) to heart based on my current strategy. If I had no fear I would follow them. As time goes on, maybe my resolve will strengthen especially IF IF IF it generates decent gains during the last half of 2022. Obviously the full exit (second red line) was premature... And only gap in MACD maybe would have been reason to stay in longer...until better charts developed. Ehhh... Who knows

Here are charts. Market was a bit down but turned around during past 15 minutes or so.

Best wishes to all! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Charts

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

More charts...Bond yields should continue going up, so bonds (F fund) should be dropping. The dollar is dropping, so stocks should drop. will see...







Yields starting to turn upward on 10 year chart, so bonds may start dropping. Looking at Slow Sto & RSI(7).



Dollar looks like it may turning upwar...Looking at Slow Sto and RSI.

 

[felixthecat]

Looks like C fund dropping as advertised. S fund holding on. Feels a bit like trying to build higher base but August can be a killer month that can retake July’s gain if a shoe drops. Believe it is fine watching this play out. If we get a bigger pullback might add some back in. Still don’t have that shoe drop news…where it comes from who knows.

More charts...Bond yields should continue going up, so bonds (F fund) should be dropping. The dollar is dropping, so stocks should drop. will see...

View attachment 55112

View attachment 55113



Yields starting to turn upward on 10 year chart, so bonds may start dropping. Looking at Slow Sto & RSI(7).
View attachment 55114


Dollar looks like it may turning upwar...Looking at Slow Sto and RSI.
View attachment 55115

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Agree Felix. It is really high right now. Had pulled back a bit (not enough to enter) and now looks like it wants to resume upward. Will see. I need a bigger drop to consider buyin.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

charts. Looks like F fund may continue downward as the 10-year interest yield ($TNX) looks like it is just starting to ramp up.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Here is the 10 yr bond interest rate YIELD. The Full Stochastic shows it is now moving up over 20 line, which should mean our F Fund (bonds) should drop in price.

Also, posting the Dollar...UUP...it's starting to rise. Not always, but often runs opposite of the overall stock market.

Inverse relationships. I try to check these daily, but do forget!

 

[Epic]

SWEEEEEEEET ! ! ! ! ! New charts :fing02::fing02::fing02: