DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

[DreamboatAnnie]

Updated charts. Thinking to exit from my 35%...not sure yet. RSI is high... market overbought ...how long can it keep going?
Next week...first few days into December are seasonally*historically weak before a drop, but thus is not a typical year...decisions..decisions!
Best wishes to All! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Exited to G fund

 

[grimmjsg123]

Great move, with low volume this week, and historically the Monday after T.G. we have a lower lower that week than the week of T.G. That's is what I am hanging my hat on anyway I have both of my moves left for this month. Both the DWCPF and the I fund are above the weekly slow stochastics Bollinger band (DWCPF week 2 above) (EFA 3 weeks above). Per the teaching of slow stochastics, the weekly Bollinger band is not breach up or down less than 5% of the time. So my guess is a pullback in both. SPY is trying to re-embed and if so it will be a good buy next week and has a lot of room to run upside to hit the Bollinger band.

 

[mmk119]

There is always Friday

 

[Scout333]

Exited to G fund

Wise move! I've been scared of this market for weeks. Finally stuck my toes back in for a few days but been scared every day when I woke up and checked the markets. Expecting a huge drop every day. Best of luck to us all!

 

[mmk119]

DB
So when you make these moves; is it just interfund transfersor also account distribution or some combination depending…?

 

[quabit]

Is it wrong that I am secretly rooting for Sparky714 to reach 100% gain in the tracker. I hope I not jinxing him/her but I find it so fascinating that I check it everyday like rooting for some underdog to make it to the World series.

 

[tsptalk]

It would be a first, and just one well-timed IFT all year. Amazing.

 

[bmneveu]

Is it wrong that I am secretly rooting for Sparky714 to reach 100% gain in the tracker. I hope I not jinxing him/her but I find it so fascinating that I check it everyday like rooting for some underdog to make it to the World series.

Nothing wrong with that. We should all be rooting for each other to make as much money as possible!

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi mmk119,
I have my bi-weekly payroll deposits going 100% into G fund (I think the TSP calls this your "account allocation").

When I make an Interfund Transfer (IFT), I am reallocating 100% of my account balance (all dollars including anything that was put into G fund via payroll deposit) on the date of the IFT based on the percentages I designate for each of the S, C, I, F, G funds ( I never use L funds). In this way, I fully control my exposure to the market at all times for 100% of my dollars.

Before 2013, I was pretty much a buy and holder (27 years) and did not pay attention to the market. I think I was allocated 70%C fund for many years and then switched to S fund 80% at some point after it was created. That worked out very well...equities are the way to go long term. Absolutely no doubt about it! But it would be nice if MAJOR downturns could be identified and avoided...

Best wishes to you!:smile:

DB
So when you make these moves; is it just interfund transfersor also account distribution or some combination depending…?

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Is it wrong that I am secretly rooting for Sparky714 to reach 100% gain in the tracker. I hope I not jinxing him/her but I find it so fascinating that I check it everyday like rooting for some underdog to make it to the World series.

Nothing wrong with that. We should all be rooting for each other to make as much money as possible!

Yep, we definitely should be rooting for each other! I also think Sparky714 was thinking very logically when he entered the market...plus no fear! Awesome! He talked about his move in BQUAT's thread (See entry 11984). Interesting!

Wishing Sparky and Everyone the Best!

 

[Whipsaw]

I am the anti-Sparky714! :nuts:

 

[mmk119]

When does the Santa rally usually start

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Good question. It varies ....it seems to go up the week of Christmas, but it also seems to follow the overall market trend (at least for S fund). This year has been highly unusual. I would not be surprised to see December continue upward, but start of December, for a few days, is green on average at least per my recollection withba little midmonth weakness. Check out tge TSPTalk Market Commentary. At bottom Tom posts tge Seasonality chart for December! :smile:

As usual, I am debating entry and would like to see some pull back....last month that never happened...eeeeeeeeee. I am going to just keep assessing charts, but I can't help but feel being in the market is best. Lots of positive things going on with vaccines, Fed keeping the status quo and likely possibility that many will miraculously decide its okay to send kids back to school so parents can get back to work. Yet, the extreme gains of November mean this market is still very high. Fear of a drop is never far from my mind. ugghhh...I would like to see a little drop before entry.

When does the Santa rally usually start

 

[mmk119]

DB
Thank you. (not that you need me to) but, I concur with your sentiment up to the end of the year. my concern going into next year is the disfunction of congress to get a budget and/or relief package passed - and other things mentioned below. I did see the seasonal chart. I also have a chart from a few years ago (can't recall where I got it now - one of the other threads here) - i'll post it below. it agrees with the seasonal chart in that best time to get back in during December is later mid-month. however, I was only thinking of taking advantage of the seasonal rally and then do a wait an see till around February. so, many financial events will happen or come due in Jan/earl Feb time that may have an impact on markets. You have commercial insurance renewals, commercial real-estate loans due or renewing, traditional start of private real-estate market, jobless numbers, another quarter, etc. I'd like to see the direction the market wants to go after that before jumping back in full time. maybe unfounded, but I feel like there is this big drop looming and I don't want to get caught in it.
sorry this wasn't short. my totally uneducated thoughts.

BTW - learning a lot from your thread and the other threads you mention. many, many thanks to you and good luck to us all!

 

[mmk119]

 

[ToddB]

I jumped 100%G today


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

DB
Thank you. (not that you need me to) but, I concur with your sentiment up to the end of the year. my concern going into next year is the disfunction of congress to get a budget and/or relief package passed - and other things mentioned below. I did see the seasonal chart. I also have a chart from a few years ago (can't recall where I got it now - one of the other threads here) - i'll post it below. it agrees with the seasonal chart in that best time to get back in during December is later mid-month. however, I was only thinking of taking advantage of the seasonal rally and then do a wait an see till around February. so, many financial events will happen or come due in Jan/earl Feb time that may have an impact on markets. You have commercial insurance renewals, commercial real-estate loans due or renewing, traditional start of private real-estate market, jobless numbers, another quarter, etc. I'd like to see the direction the market wants to go after that before jumping back in full time. maybe unfounded, but I feel like there is this big drop looming and I don't want to get caught in it.
sorry this wasn't short. my totally uneducated thoughts.

BTW - learning a lot from your thread and the other threads you mention. many, many thanks to you and good luck to us all!

Hi MMK, Your comments are very appreciated! The late January/early February timeframe is always interesting. I will be pausing around that time as well. Thank you! :smile:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Here are updated charts, although the trendlines have not been redrawn. Still interesting how the C fund keeps stopping its upward push right at the shorter term trend line (purple). If it pops through it plus the longer term (blue) trendline it likely will skyrocket like S Fund, or so me thinks!

Also, S fund looks to be building a high base... While it gained .98% today, it only recovered what it lost yesterday. So, will it break higher..above high base its creating? Futures are up 46 points right now on DOW, so not looking explosive at this time. Will see...

If it breaks well above today's high, it could mean another leg up but gosh it would be scary to jump in. Right now, the TSPTalk poll for next week is 57% bulls, 27% bears. Very bullish. Long ago, I recall that the TSP sentiment used to be a very good contrarian indicator (which meant market would drop) but maybe not so contrarian anymore???? Looks like its now more in line with NAAIM that Coolhand posts, and that is Bullish. But, I am waiting....not happily, but I'm waiting...

 

[nasa1974]

DBA,
You would think that the market would relax a little bit just before the Santa Rally, but with the vaccines on the horizon do we sit on the sidelines and wait or take a chance?