DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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DreamboatAnnie said:
Here's a very good article I found on How to Forecast Market Direction. Strategy #3 is good because it talks about market fund rotations between large cap verses small-mid caps in Russell 2000. By using a comparison chart you can see where "smart" money is switching between large cap (SPX=S&P 500, or use SPY) and Russell 2000=IWM ETF, which closely mirrors our S fund (DWCPF).


https://tradingsim.com/blog/russell-2000-index/
Click to expand...

#3, as you mentioned, was noticeable months ago. We cannot be surprised when this "flip" between the Dow and the small caps takes place. And at least move from the dia or spy to small caps, or vice versa.
 
Hi JimmyJoe! Yes agree it flipped during the big drop in March. C fund over S Fund. But, I picked S Fund and I Fund over C Fund for latest investment due to exposure of Large caps (S&P 500) to China and upcoming possible more QE? or some kind of help by European Central bank; although C Fund has broken through the 100 SMA... which is very promising. I and S Funds are still just below 200 SMA and so are still hitting that line as resistance. Will see if they can break that line like C Fund. Best wishes to you and everyone!!! :smile:!!

comparison.png

JimmyJoe said:
#3, as you mentioned, was noticeable months ago. We cannot be surprised when this "flip" between the Dow and the small caps takes place. And at least move from the dia or spy to small caps, or vice versa.
Click to expand...
 
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Today's charts. S Fund popped through 200 SMA today, but will see if it can stay above it tomorrow. C fund already above this threshold for a few days. I fund is approaching this line of resistance, but just crossed above the 100 SMA.

S Fund
DWCPF -daily.png

C Fund
SPX now.png

I Fund
I FUND - EFA. now.png
 
Here is F Fund chart. Bollinger bands really tight so looking to see which way it breaks. Not sure what happened Thursday last week with that Super long tail. I guess I missed news on that. :dunno: Anyone know???? Looking at intraday minutes chart, looks like it happened in first minute of trade.

View attachment 46309
 
Yep exited all to G Except minimal 5%in S fund and 5% in I-fund. Okay, Per new Strategy should stay in but I was wanting to put some distance between me and zero line and this move accomplishes that. I think market MIGHT pull back a tad bit in next couple days and I may re-enter at that time...because I do think market will continue up a bit more before any moderate drop (1-3%)….but not sure if I should enter at that point or wait for later in month. At this point, just hoping the day finishes in the current upswing. 4 hours to wait for close. I hate that! :worried: Fingers crossed! :D :D:D
 
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I am going to enter some... maybe add another 40% to the 10% already in market. I probably should not, but I tend to think this is more of a knee jerk reaction. News on Coronavirus... what Fed chair said is concerning, but again... too many don't believe this market is going to roar back. So this is a gamble buy in.

Hope I am right... the charts and "my strategy" do not support this buy in. Uggh… there I go again.. not following it.
 
I felt very confident about getting in due to the big drop today, and HOPING for a bounce. But now am second guessing the move.

Was it a wise move?? I thought so at the time. Happy to see futures are up right now, but no telling how it will look in the morning, much less how it will finish Friday. I will just see how it goes in the morning and decide if I stay in.

And there is that word again... "hope". It can be a real killer when it comes to market, by leading one to stay in longer than one should. Looking at indicators... 13 EMA still above 20 SMA (shockingly).. but 3 days down and Stochastic turning downward. Gosh ... seems like gaps were filled, but I don't know for sure on that.

The thing bothering me is that as I look at charts this evening, it seems the set up (candles) look the SAME as how they looked before the last big drop. Good part is that today's closing price seemed to find support at same level as last year's sideways action. Will try to wrangle up a chart to show it. But it won't take much to break that support, and if it does ... watch out! ...and yes, I will not hesitate to exit if morning looks bad... I hate this market! :(

Best Wishes to you all on your Investments!! :D :D :D
 
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Kendall report is talking about a day or two up and then a significant move down. I was thinking of riding it based on only being in the second week of the month, but I'm getting the impression from his discussion that this is going back down to the lows in March. The timeframe is not insignificant as a small pullback could ride back up higher than an exit point this early in the month... Unless its heading south to a large degree, then its likely to exit now and get a lower entry 1 July. He's also talking about 3 wave counts going through a consolidation, so opportunities to swing trade? What do I know, I'm like 5 from the bottom of the tracker! >.<
 
So what I see is this...Sideways trading channel from about mid July to late November (dark blue trend lines). Today's action dropped it down to the bottom of lows we had in August and October last year. That acted as support today. Also, there was some support from the PINK 20 SMA (mid-point) of Bollinger Band. But if it breaks that blue line, the next line of support would likely be at the 100 day SMA (gold line).

Also, noticing how the February drop had a large gap down, followed by a few down days (but hovering) when the Lower blue trend line acted as support, before it had another large gap down, more support formed before the next gap down, and then free falling some more to the bottom. Today, we had a large gap down (obviously) but now comparing what today's chart action looks like in comparison to the the late February start of drop.... That does have me a bit worried.

Earlier the DOW mini was up 185, then about 2 hours ago was only up 95 and now ….I just checked DOW mini Futures again and its up 385 points! That is great! But still only about a Quarter of the drop that happened today. So, not sure about that. I may take some off table tomorrow.... just to be on the safe side... not sure that this will even make up for the drop today covering only 10% invested. Gosh... I don't want to exit but will need to do the math. Also, no more IFTs to get back in … so an exit now could be premature... then again... no telling.... so sad that we must contend with only 1 actual buy in each month.
 
Yep... you made some great points! An exit now messes up the whole month especially if it goes back up! I felt very confident when I entered today. I just felt like the drop was a knee jerk reaction. I just don't know what to think at this point. I am starting to think that it would be best to treat this market like a bear (use bear strategy---quick in and out each month) and only enter when it gets to 20 Stochastic.... but gosh... these waves ride for such a long time...it could very well just drop a bit more and then start moving up ... maybe more slowly... but I am having a hard time really believing that everyone is freaking out about a 2nd Coronavirus outbreak. I am thinking it more likely that Fed Speak had a bigger bearing on action today. But still... I just tend to think the economy will come back and people want to work and get business going.

Hummm... I have not listened to Kendall report. I will need to check it out. I always listen to Ira Epstein, but have not had time to hear him either. Curious to see what he has to say. I already saw you on AT tonight.... Keep Up Your Spirits!!!

As of late, I have been trying to manage the IFTs... like trying to buy in closer to end of month so I can start month already in and then exit at sign of trouble so I still have an IFT to enter on at proper time using strategy and indicators (and not just cuz I see a big drop).... should just try to enter when Stochastic drops to 20 and begins to head back up, while also looking at cumulative volume (advancers/decliners)... But as far as managing the iFTs. I do believe I was impatient and should have waited a bit longer to enter... ....but again, I do think drop was at least partly Fed driven and some pros wanting to take profits. Will see how it goes tomorrow. But I do think I am just going to start trying to do baby steps ...not get too greedy or too anxious trying to make a ton of money at one time. Just a thought... hum... I dunno….:dunno:

P.S. the upper blue line on that chart needs to come down a tad... I could not get it where it needed to be, and I think it acted as support for yesterday's action.

Whipsaw said:
Kendall report is talking about a day or two up and then a significant move down. I was thinking of riding it based on only being in the second week of the month, but I'm getting the impression from his discussion that this is going back down to the lows in March. The timeframe is not insignificant as a small pullback could ride back up higher than an exit point this early in the month... Unless its heading south to a large degree, then its likely to exit now and get a lower entry 1 July. He's also talking about 3 wave counts going through a consolidation, so opportunities to swing trade? What do I know, I'm like 5 from the bottom of the tracker! >.<
Click to expand...
 
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Nice Fed-induced rally this morning! Still see a tug-of-war going on short-term....I am not seeing a trend this past week per charts, so just trending sideways with lots of volatility.

I am thinking to reduce exposure again to pocket some of today's rally...IF it holds out until cutoff. Crossing fingers that Powell's doesn't say anything to cause market to drop as he testifies before Congress this morning. So far its OK. Humm… so now thinking to reduce from 30% invested to maybe 10-15%.

Probably keep some in S fund... then again its now up over 800 points and ..... hummm. kinda want to take the money and run, but 10 more trading days in month and no IFTs left. 10 days is a long time to wait...especially if it rallies further.... decisions.. decisions.

Wishing you all the best* !!!!! :smile:

DWCPF -now.png
 
So Powell said parts of economy struggles to come back because people can only come together in small groups in social distancing.. Duh!! Market has dropped to about 568. So he makes a widely known observation and market moves down. That's just dumb!

I must say, I feel confident about our ability to get back economically but its hindered greatly by certain Governors and Mayors that just keep it down with the inequitably applied/enforced opening rules on businesses.... you know some are applicable to some folks but not to all....so unfair!
 
IMO I think the markets are getting "fed" up with Powell. Same song and dance the last couple times. Dovish thoughts but markets aren't really going crazy over it. Have we reached an end to the Fed's ability to push the markets higher in a big way? I mean granted they kept it propped up and running higher and higher. But the markets have had some pull backs here and there and maybe done with running higher. Maybe the markets move this morning was way more about the possibility of a therapeutic soon. I personally think that is still is what is driving the markets more. So even with that we had some sell off while Powell is speaking. Not helping the markets based on what we see at the moment. I'm thinking a move back to G might be in the best interest regardless of where we end up today. Just my opinions of course.
 
Looking at DWCPF, we are now only up 138... wow! Also some news on Beijing. I agree.. Thing is with all this Fed Stimulus, its scary if market doesn't continue upward. I mean, if even the Fed's efforts don't cure the ills.....eeeeee. :notrust: hope market shakes off his comments but agree Fed efforts to prop up markets not working is concerning!

Charles Payne reporting that Powell said Fed would "keep rates low as long as they feel comfortable" with that......as opposed to what he said last time about keeping them at these levels for 2 years. Then he said Powell now talks about our being able to keep things in control and deal with virus as opposed to talking about need for vaccine. Now that is positive, but again I think that is view many folks have. So as I write market came back up to 345. Will likely just leave things as is.... no exit today for me. :smile:
 
Yep lost a full percentage point in S in last 30 mins.

If we could push back up to 3150 I might consider staying in S. Next 50 mins or so will be important.
 
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