DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

My take is that it is a wake up call to the market that saw it rebound too far, too fast, with the economy that is nothing like it was three months ago.

I look at negative rates as an incentive to get folks, and businesses, spending again. What I want to know is if mortgage rates could go negative? :) That wouldn't make sense but how would it be to be making interest, instead of paying it, on a six figure mortgage? There's a lot of people who would refinance and take out some cash to spend... and get interest for doing it. :eek:

Disclaimer: I may be totally wrong about how that works. :D
 
Negative interest rates...A quick google search led to the idea that banks can charge a "storage fee" for keeping your money there. So this could mean I would pull my money out and start digging holes.
 
Negative interest rates...A quick google search led to the idea that banks can charge a "storage fee" for keeping your money there. So this could mean I would pull my money out and start digging holes.


if its over 10k you will be reported to various govt agencies and might get a visit.
 
Hi Whipsaw, Thanks for the cool song! Charlie Daniels can sure weave a great tale. Love this song... Legend of Wooley Swamp....yep gotta be careful about burying your gold in swampy backyard!! :)

P.S. Myself, I just like to keep my TSP Silver in a hidden drawer do I can pull some out and play with it. Love all those shiny coins... lol :D
 
Here is a very good Ira Epstein End of Day Financial video for 5-19-2020. I always watch Ira's videos, which Nnuut posts on the IE thread, but I really got a lot out of what he talked about today so I had to put it on my thread...gotta keep it. I really would like to take his charting course someday.

Best Wishes to Everyone!!! :D:D:D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SddTrYNF06s
 
Here is a very good Ira Epstein End of Day Financial video for 5-19-2020. I always watch Ira's videos, which Nnuut posts on the IE thread, but I really got a lot out of what he talked about today so I had to put it on my thread...gotta keep it. I really would like to take his charting course someday.

Best Wishes to Everyone!!! :D:D:D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SddTrYNF06s
I took his charting course when it was on sale it was well worth it.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk
 
Hi T4J, thanks for that info on Ira Epstein. This morning I watched his 5/20/20 end of day video----very good. (he puts out several different ones each day). I very religiously watch his Financial End Of Day video Every DAY! I also watch his Morning Flash, when I have a chance...on coffee break. These are short videos...10-12minutes and if you watch the first 5 minutes You Are Set! He us now pointing out that we are at major resistance on C fund...100 day, 200 day plus upper Bollinger. S fund looks a bit better...but still high. Just gotta listen to what he says about this market...he says IF today is an up day, throw out Fibonacci and believes no second bottom...at least not to the original drop levels...but mentions if we have second corona breakout or other big event, it drops again. That is what he said yesterday evening, but right now market down a bit so Fibonacci still in play and we are still going sideways...at Major Resistance. Doesn't mean we can't break out.... but must be watchful here. He has indicated on the past two videos he does not like being in during sideways action.... Best Wishes to you all !!!:smile:

I took my charts and added in the 100 and 200SMAs...just to see where they are now...since Ira Epstein pointed them out.
SPX now.png

DWCPF -daily.png
 
Hope your having a restful Memorial Day Weekend! It's a time of remembrance for all who served. I grew up outside the gates of Lackland Air Force base and so close to base I could hear Reveille each morning and Taps each evening...

I also have had lots of my family who served. My great uncle served in WWII and died in France (not in Normandy) but passed there very close to the end of the war. Also my father served for a short time as did my sister and brother-in-law and my husband's father who was a B-52 pilot (who passed away more than 20 years ago). More recently my husband's Uncle, who fought in WWII in the Pacific, passed away... last Summer and he had a beautiful military service at Quantico National Cemetery in Virginia. Every time taps plays I just cannot help but well up with tears.

So many have given their lives for this great country, may God rest their souls. We are very blessed to live in the greatest country that has ever existed. My best wishes to each of you who have given of yourselves and served our country well. God Bless You!!!!! :smile:


flags graves.jpg
 
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Here are some new Daily charts--just posting the 6 month charts for now. 12 month and 4 month are coming soon. These show the indicators I am now using the most. The old chart links on my thread (page 215 - posts #2575 & 2576) will likely stay active for some time. But, I am now liking the 13EMA and 20 SMA crossovers for entry/exits, so those lines are now accented in these charts and what I am hoping to start using very soon. These are permalinks that automatically update everyday.

Best Wishes to you all on Your Investments!!!!! :smile:

6 Month Daily Charts

S Fund (DWCPF)
$DWCPF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

C Fund (SPX)
$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

I Fund (EFA)
EFA | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

F Fund (AGG)
AGG | SharpChart | StockCharts.com
 
Here are the remaining charts... same exact settings as 6 month. These are for 4 month daily and 12 month daily.
New Strategy is to enter and exit using 13 EMA and 20 SMA crossovers, but STILL considering the Full Stochastics especially when MACD is starting to flat line and Stochastics drops below its signal line to go below 80, after the uptrend is starting to get a bit long winded. Note: I do consider the 13 EMA going below the 50 SMA to be an absolute Stop/Exit when market has been in an uptrend.

Best wishes to you all!!! :)

4 Month Daily Charts

S Fund (DWCPF)
$DWCPF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

C fund (SPX)
$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

I fund (EFA)
EFA | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

F Fund (AGG)
AGG | SharpChart | StockCharts.com


12 Month Daily Charts


S Fund (DWCPF)
$DWCPF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

C fund (SPX)
http://schrts.co/jHkFNMwG

I fund (EFA)
http://schrts.co/FtcNsXWi

F Fund (AGG)
http://schrts.co/vCnKFwDt
 
I Decided to also post charts using BigCharts---Whipsaw, I know you still like BC. The slow stochastic is basically same as full stochastic. These charts only use EMAs, as options on Bigcharts.com are a bit limited. Also, no custom smoother second set of Stochastics (14,7,5)---But these are still good! Links can be copied. Best wishes! :smile:

6-Month Daily via BIG Charts

S Fund=DWCPF
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=dwcpf&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F25%2F2020&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=13%2C20%2C50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=2&type=4&style=370&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11&x=0&y=0


C Fund=SPX
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=SPX&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F25%2F2020&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=13%2C20%2C50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=2&type=4&style=370&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11&x=64&y=5


I Fund=EFA
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=efa&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F25%2F2020&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=13%2C20%2C50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=2&type=4&style=370&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11&x=26&y=5


F Fund=AGG
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=AGG&time=7&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F25%2F2020&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=6&maval=13%2C20%2C50&uf=8&lf=4&lf2=32&lf3=2&type=4&style=370&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11&x=42&y=10
 
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My new strategy: (Thought twice about posting my “secret” strategy.. but I figure if Double Tree can post their Secret Awesome Cookie Recipe… which I tried a few days ago, I can post my new Strategy…plus I’m pretty sure you’d be crazy to follow it considering my history…lol)

Rule #1: Enter when 13-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crosses above 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA)-same as Bollinger Band mid-point and Exit when opposite occurs. I Should review MACD and Stochastics (20 and 80) for possible earlier or later entry/exits and review of candle patterns and major resistance and support and watch for early exits when 20 EMA or 50 SMA are sloped down. But, the 13/20 crossovers should be my primary indicator.

Rule #2 – If market is dropping, at minimum, must “Stop” and Exit when 13 EMA drops below 50 SMA to limit losses. You should have already exited if you followed Rule #1 so this is the “Special Rule” for DBA when she insists on being a “Meathead”! :blink:

Rule #3 – If market has dropped enough intraday to likely cause you to go negative for year, you must Exit! Don’t be stubborn DBA! Yes, I do talk to myself all the time…don’t care ...I’m now old enough to claim senility! GET OUT!

Note: Rule #2&3 are to ensure that losses are kept to a minimum….no riding major drops down (like I did in December 2018...too hard to make up)! This strategy is based on reviewing charts for last few years and crashes of 1987, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, and 2020. I know it’s not perfect but it’s not too bad ---at least from what I am seeing. Please do not take this as trading advice! This is just me thinking out loud and I'm definitely not a trader-expert, etc. But I do welcome comments on strategy with one exception: I already know some of you think there are too many lines on my charts, but I like that …plus all the purdy colors! :D Hey…I need something to stare at and ponder each night before I go to sleep!!! :rolleyes:

Just for the record, I want a strategy that makes me some money, gets me out early enough to minimize losses during large drops, allows me to be invested longer without using a buy and hold strategy, and is something fairly SIMPLE. So, in short, I want it ALL!!!! Lol…. But then again who doesn’t?

Now the hard part, when do I enter given that 13 is above 20??? Thinking to jump off my Lilly pad… does the water look okay out there?
 
Here are the remaining charts... same exact settings as 6 month. These are for 4 month daily and 12 month daily.
New Strategy is to enter and exit using 13 EMA and 20 SMA crossovers, but STILL considering the Full Stochastics especially when MACD is starting to flat line and Stochastics drops below its signal line to go below 80, after the uptrend is starting to get a bit long winded. Note: I do consider the 13 EMA going below the 50 SMA to be an absolute Stop/Exit when market has been in an uptrend.

Best wishes to you all!!! :)
Any particular reason for using 13EMA and 20SMA?

PO
 
Welp… a couple years ago, I read an article that claimed to have done 20+ year analysis with back testing to figure out the best crossover method. It said the best returns were to be made using the 13 EMA and 48.5 EMA, and had comparisons on average earnings/returns shown for various MA crossovers. Document appeared well sourced and based on good methodology, so I decided to place some reliance on it. I have charts with these settings. I look at them every week, but I noticed it just seems that by the time one would exit on a 50 crossover, too much money would be lost.

So, I started looking at other MA crossovers not tested in that article to look for something that would fit my needs...leave me in market for a time to get me some returns but get me out if a large drop occurs. I do believe that price action is key and MAs can reflect something going on in market that we may not know about or sense... so I started to look at 3/5 and 3/7 and 7/10 and 13/16 crossovers and many others, but settled on 3/5 and 13/16 EMAs... you will see I have used those for about a year...but they did clutter my charts too much and so I wanted something Simpler and Easier to see instantly on charts. (LOL... but then I added in the 100 and 200 to show possible upcoming resistance areas...so much for getting uncluttered! :rolleyes: )

So, I decided to use the 13 and 20 SMA because I have always liked the thought of only being in market when price is above the mid-point of Bollinger Bands (= to 20 SMA) and in studying charts it seems the 13 EMA used with 20 SMA keeps you in the market a good amount of time but gets you out fairly quickly when a fast drop happens....if you don't procrastinate on exit.

BUT, it does have its downsides. The trade off is that you have more whipsaws (in and outs) when using 13/20 crossovers as opposed to 13/48.5 or 50.. and you can lose some money on those whipsaws, especially when market is having high volatility and trending sideways (e.g. See 2015 chart...that was a tough year!). So, in those periods I have decided I cannot get away from some consideration and reliance on Stochastics and to a lesser extent the MACD. Nothing's ever easy but I am trying to simplify without resorting to strict buy and hold.

Also, just to make clear, while little whipsaws might lose you money, its nothing like staying in market in a big downturn, like what we just had. This strategy would've had one out of market on February 24 and back in April 7th and still in.

DWCPF -daily.png
 
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oppsey... I mean Exit on about Feb 26th... would have eaten one big candle if not watching intradays on day before to exit on 25th...but still... nothing like what happened after...:( Thankfully I was not in it, bur definitely feel for those who were.

Other thing to keep in mind is that relations with China seem to be going South right now... just waiting for that shoe to drop. So, I'm thinking if I enter market this week, I will be leaning to S fund to avoid companies with the greatest China exposure in C fund. Then again...any bad news would still likely affect it. Also, watchful for China threatening to not buy debt....our treasuries. Not heard latest on that.
 
Last day of month should not be a factor in decision, but I want ability to exit in June and re-enter. If I recall correctly, we used to have markets go up in last half of June...seemingly after Fed meetings, but not sure that is in play anymore. So here goes.!! 13 EMA still above 20 SMA, just wish I was catching the wave at beginning...will exit if 13 crosses below 20, or if Stochastics start to drop.

Entering 40%-S fund, 10%-I fund. I expect drop today for buyin and possible drop Monday if China retaliates...but then hope we continue upward as more of country opens. I guess I gotta start somewhere. Crossing my fingers! :smile: This is scary!!!
 
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Here's a very good article I found on How to Forecast Market Direction. Strategy #3 is good because it talks about market fund rotations between large cap verses small-mid caps in Russell 2000. By using a comparison chart you can see where "smart" money is switching between large cap (SPX=S&P 500, or use SPY) and Russell 2000=IWM ETF, which closely mirrors our S fund (DWCPF).


https://tradingsim.com/blog/russell-2000-index/
 
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