DreamboatAnnie's Account Talk

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So, I keep looking at charts...had wanted to jump in but.....just couldn't do it. The obvious ..20SMA (Bollinger band mid-point) below 50EMA, so its high risk to be in right now. The expected bounce occurred, then a little lull and continued up....that was unexpected but not so surprising because of the positive talk. But I think reality is just starting to hit, so another wave down. ?? hummm…. Approaching major resistance and I think it will fail. But we shall see...it did look promising with SPX going above 50 EMA yesterday and 3 EMA above 5 EMA AND 13 EMA just hitting above 16 EMA, but alas...today, the Stochastic is now crossing below its signal line , even though its above 80 AND price back below 50 EMA....ughhh...so much for that.

But, tomorrow is another day! A boost might come if the Plan to reopen for business sounds feasible and safe when its described further tomorrow; but if it doesn't hit the mark....watch out below! Closures having massive impact. Gotta reopen!

Best wishes to you All !!!! :D:D:D

Here are charts.

SPX now.png

DWCPF -now.png
 
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Ha! Today is looking good! Market likes what it heard on plan to reopen the Govt!
Its still very risky, but I am thinking about a partial entry today...maybe 40% C fund, 15%S fund and 25%F fund. Still considering ….hummmm… :scratchchin:

Still expecting lots of volatility, but I like that 3EMA above 5 EMA and 13 above 16 and , MACD still positive and rising although MACD histogram is slightly waning, and Stochastic flatlining above 80...it looks embedded above 80. Plus I love C fund is above 50 EMA. But, only thing is that price is hitting my line in the sand on C fund...see pink line, 3rd chart.... and in the back of my head a little voice keeps saying, might we back off and retest the high of late March (about 2637)??? So thinking not in the clear yet. May wait until Monday..... hummm…..will see ...1.5 hours to decide! Leaning towards partial entry.... oh gosh but fear is that as soon as I enter, it tanks....ugghhh...whats everyone else thinking???? editing... oh crap! just saw that Userque exited yesterday...only 3 of top 10 in equities...unless some enter today..... that is not a good sign....:(…. probably wait...will see...lol....its always something...:rolleyes:

Best wishes to you all* !!!! :smile:


Here are charts at this point...
SPX now.png

DWCPF -now.png

SPX now.png
 
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my feeling is that I missed this run up and it has now run its course and starting to consolidate and move back down. I am new to this trading game, so don't give my opinion much weight....I am suffering from severe FOMO, but nearly everything that I have read indicates a retest of the bottom.

Another thought I had was to do a partial entry like you said. If I am wrong and the market swings down, do I feel like I am getting a good value for my dollar today? My feeling is no. I feel that I would be over paying.

One final note. The markets opened at +3% across the board and that has been reduced to 1.5% or lower as of right now. I am holding out in F for the time being.
 
Hi Beester, Thanks for your sound view. Price is at the upper resistance as I see it... pink line. Ugghhh. BUT I am so very impatient! Its killing me to see it continue up!
 
Thank you DBA for these charts. After seeing the futures last night and the relative strength this morning I too agree it might be time to get the feet wet. I am trying to decide if I go in 25% or 50% today. Leaning towards 25%, but if trends over the next hour are down I may just wait. I wanted to see the market successfully punch through the 50-day EMA a second time to build a bit of confidence, but I see your pink line and completely agree that that may be important resistance. I also agree with some that the market is expensive in the short term but it's still a discount relative to the highs, so a 25% investment with the goal of holding that 25% over a longer period of time may be an acceptable risk for me. I am reconsidering my strategy of (mostly) an all-or-nothing approach based on two of the premium services and am considering an incremental approach, a balance of short of long positions based on the perceived "most likely" market direction and "premium" guidance. The reality is that the Fed continues to run the show, for now. But, I am just "dumb" dumb money talking. It would sure be a lot easier (but not necessarily more profitable) with more than 2 IFTs...

Anyway, best of luck to all and thanks again!
SC
 
Thx also from me DBA! I'm thinking similarly... though maybe IFT with a nibble of say 10%C 4%S 2%I and keep 20%F (rest in G)(?). Gotta decide, and get back to "work"... hmmm.
 
Beester15 said:
my feeling is that I missed this run up and it has now run its course and starting to consolidate and move back down. I am new to this trading game, so don't give my opinion much weight....I am suffering from severe FOMO, but nearly everything that I have read indicates a retest of the bottom.

Another thought I had was to do a partial entry like you said. If I am wrong and the market swings down, do I feel like I am getting a good value for my dollar today? My feeling is no. I feel that I would be over paying.

One final note. The markets opened at +3% across the board and that has been reduced to 1.5% or lower as of right now. I am holding out in F for the time being.
Click to expand...

If it's any consolation your not alone. I moved most into G back around the highs in Feb and the rest in before the big drop. So I've been itching to move some back out into other funds, FOMO. But I agree that I would be over paying a little because I do think the markets could move back down a little.

Partial entries sound good but even then I feel like this spot is too high. Am I way off? I am not an expert either so I might just not be looking at this from the right perspectives. Moving averages and key resistances and support levels seem to be things that people use as a guide where to potentially dip their toes in. I am not sure I feel good about this position to do it. I might just need to get more educated in this stuff. Still, it's nice to read others positions and thoughts/ideas on this stuff especially with respects to what we have been through the last month.
 
I rode this monster down and then up off the bottom until a just before the last dip. Yeah, I've missed some of this run up, though I do think there is another shoe to drop. Mostly listening to the Pivot Point Trading video Aussie dude, but others have pointed out when the impact of this shut down to the economy really becomes apparent... could spell trouble. Otherwise, I would love to see the 'reopening' grow legs and take off. The governors aren't all going to play, IMHO.
 
I saw somewhere (I think CNBC) that 5.5% of all mortgages right now are in forbearance. Think this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Mentally, I keep going back to sporting events (I am a huge baseball fan) and the lack there of. The trickle down of that hasn't hit yet. Once people do start getting back to work, there will be some time before people can dig themselves out of the hole this put them in.

What makes 0 sense to me is that the market keeps going up and up despite all other indicators that it should go in the other direction. The treasury must have used all that money they are printing to buy a few more pressess...
 
Beester15 said:
I saw somewhere (I think CNBC) that 5.5% of all mortgages right now are in forbearance. Think this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Mentally, I keep going back to sporting events (I am a huge baseball fan) and the lack there of. The trickle down of that hasn't hit yet. Once people do start getting back to work, there will be some time before people can dig themselves out of the hole this put them in.

What makes 0 sense to me is that the market keeps going up and up despite all other indicators that it should go in the other direction. The treasury must have used all that money they are printing to buy a few more pressess...
Click to expand...


I've said this elsewhere so...broken record but...

That 1.2T infusion turned the cliff into a dead cat bounce...even a dead cat bounce has to hit the floor again unless it comes to life. We've passed the point of coming back to life as normal: like you said it will some time before people can dig themselves out of this hole. The market was also propped up by the panic buying which has mostly abated. Everyone has their toilet paper now, so revenue from consumers will start to evapotranspirate.

A lot of people haven't made credit/rent/mortgage/car payments since March. Those chickens must come home to roost. I don't think we've seen the bottom yet. Don't have FOMO...be happy you're missing out. Sailing in a storm is a great adventure, but you could also lose the boat.

Also, wait until the market gets wind of the multitude of class-action lawsuits filed against any liable corporation for failing to protect workers/customers from Covid...you must know that's coming as well. This won't be over for some time.
 
never occurred to me about the class action lawsuits....

Illinois has been under a shelter in place order since mid march yet the number of cases keeps rising. It is clear (to me anyway) that this isn't going away until there is a vaccine or therapeutic meds....

will we see a 100% retracement to previous highs from this dead cat bounce? it seems like all the Fibonacci resistance lines have been passed or met?
 
Looking at charts this morning. Still no entry for me..... waiting... even F not lookin that good.....but they all could turn back up. Must admit with drops these last two days, still considering a partial entry...:D:D:D. Best wishes to you all* !!!!

PS. I'm not gonna do it! With oil crashing like it did yesterday, I'd have to be insane to jump in....hummmm...:rolleyes:

SPX now.png

DWCPF -now.png

AGG now.png
 
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So tempting to jump 15-25% back into C for fun, in hopes the pro-forma sessions passes a 4th stimulus package today... oh the temptation!!! C'mon congress, pogo that dead rabbit up again!

not worth the gamble, the pro-forma is stagnant on info...oh well, tank baby tank and tomorrow's another chance to buy low!!!
 
Welp..decision made to wade in a bit. Don't really like jumping in at this point, but I am limiting it to something I can live with if it drops during next few days. Going in about 40% to equities. Keeping fingers crossed.
 
PS. So I set my loss tolerance at 1% (current earnings at +1.12% ...so, at 50% invested, I exit if market drop is more than 2% or so.... right now market is down 417 pts so might get a decent buy in at today's closing price...if Friday tanks, I can exit and still have other IFT to buy later in May. If I recall, it seems May does usually get some upside towards end of month. Will need to check that out ….
 
This morning is a bunch of horse poop! :( Yep, even the F fund is down .10%. Looks like market is starting to move a bit higher...not losing as much as it did at open. still.....ugghhh...its still a crap sandwich! What is it that one trader always say??? Rule #1, The market is always right! Something about Rule #2, if you disagree, see rule #1... eeeeeeee…. yep, gotta stay humble....this may just be testing tge 50 MA.... hummm… hoping it reverses enough before cut off to stay in.
 
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