Dr Faustus's Account Talk

[kar_crazy]

good luck , let em hang just be cautious ,

 

[Steadygain]

I'm going to sink in a toe here ... or maybe go in up to my waist

50G 20C 20S 10I COB today (1/2/09)

Hello my friend,
I just checked the Auto Tracker and everyone is starting with a clean slate.

Since we're starting at the same place I'm willing to get back in and give it another try. I'd be honored to have you join us - and it would be a lot easier to follow your input.

 

[DrFaustus]

switching to 50G 50F cob today (1/12)

 

[crhuss]

Hi Dan,
Sorry about the market the last few days. But...No guts, no glory....and nobody knows what will happen. The timing was pretty bad for you this go around. I guess the market hasn't stablized yet. I plan to continue to wait out this crazy market until things look a little better. No telling when that will happen. Hope you didn't lose too much.
Take care,

Craig

 

[DrFaustus]

I can't take any more of this ... am back to 100%G cob today.

 

[Hallatauer]

Presently watching the market doing a slow slide as poor earnings news comes in the past few days. This is making for an opportunity to move back in to equities for a slow slide back up. Thinking if the Dow hits 7500 again like it did several months ago, I may throw 50% into the C Fund. Will keep you up to date.

 

[DrFaustus]

Report Card Time!
Grade: F-

09 Jan : -3.32%
09 YTD: -3.32%

 

[DrFaustus]

I heard a forecast today that the Dow was going to hit 7000 before going back up to 9500 for the end of the year. Don't know how much stock to put in that prediction though (uh ... no pun intended).

 

[Steadygain]

Report Card Time!
Grade: F-

09 Jan : -3.32%
09 YTD: -3.32%

I appreciate your honesty !!

I heard a forecast today that the Dow was going to hit 7000 before going back up to 9500 for the end of the year. Don't know how much stock to put in that prediction though (uh ... no pun intended).

If we put any weight on the Biggest name Economic Analysts and ignore the charts and hopeful jumps - there is no doubt the overwhelming bulk forsee things getting a whole lot worse - before they get better.

I'm trying to stick with just 02/09 - who knows how the year will play out??

 

[tsptalk]

Report Card Time!
Grade: F-

09 Jan : -3.32%
09 YTD: -3.32%

I wouldn't say a loss of -3.32% in January would be an F. The stock funds were down 8% to 12%. You need to grade on a curve.

 

[Hallatauer]

Stayed in G Fund... still. +.99% <sigh> Going nowhere fast but at least it's not down.

 

[justbizness45]

Report Card Time!
Grade: F-

09 Jan : -3.32%
09 YTD: -3.32%

I guess that gives me a C for Jan. I went in the market used 3 IFTs and came out at exactly the same percentage as if I stayed in G for the whole month. Still failing though Oct and Nov were so bad I was off the scale below the curve.:cheesy:

 

[Hallatauer]

Well I said I would consider moving back into equities if the Dow hit 7500 again. Well it did, I didn't and I'm glad... it's still doing a slow drop. I think Bernake speaking about the economy being at the bottom was worse than saying nothing at all. He didn't know we were in a recession until 6 months after the fact.

Now I'm just curious to see how low it goes before it starts to come back up.

 

[DrFaustus]

Well I said I would consider moving back into equities if the Dow hit 7500 again. Well it did, I didn't and I'm glad... it's still doing a slow drop.

That's true ... investing in index funds in this market is just insane. Take a look at this chart:

View attachment 5891

This is a snapshot of the S&P every 5 days. As you can see, there's been some up and downs after the big sell-off but there's still a noticeable trend downward.

Still 100% in the G fund ... although I gotta tell ya, there might be some short term upside potential from here.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks for the post Dr F.

A lot of times it feels like we're just crawling and getting no where


so a chart like that is a welcome relief....


we're going DOWN brother ... it's in the stars...fate..or whatever

G is a good place to be .... largely because you can just ignore everything and wait...but it holds an element of 'sanity' as well :cheesy:

 

[felixthecat]

There is no doubt that the economy is in need of some serious help. A sliver of positive econmic news would go along way in settling the markets down. I don't see any of that yet. However, the market is forward looking and we are due for a short term bear market rally. I believe financials and technology will lead us through this short term bear market rally.

I'm going to hold my ground for now as I got in at 769 S&P. I'm thinking there is some upside here but I have no fantasy that would imply at this time to hold for no more than 790-800 upside target.

I have to say I would much rather sit in "G" until the smoke clears but I'm afraid I'll become too complacent and not move when I need to. So, my aim is to buy low and sell high (for short term gains). So far, this year I have really been picky about when I buy and sell. Avoiding the bear mauling has been difficult. :blink:

 

[DrFaustus]

I have to say I would much rather sit in "G" until the smoke clears but I'm afraid I'll become too complacent and not move when I need to. So, my aim is to buy low and sell high (for short term gains). So far, this year I have really been picky about when I buy and sell. Avoiding the bear mauling has been difficult. :blink:

Well said. I have the same fears but am trying to learn to "invest" instead of trying to look for the dead cat bounces as I have in the past. Not an easy thing to do, especially with our limited number of IFTs.

So far, I've mainly been waiting for the market to show me a turn around before getting back in ... that means hitting a low and then coming off it in some sort of orderly fashion and staying that way for a while. When I've tried to guess the market, I've made bad choices (which is why I gave myself an F for last month).

 

[DrFaustus]

Report Card time ...

Feb 09: +0.21%
YTD 09: -3.12%

Looks like we're gonna take it in the shorts again today as there is blood all over the place in the futures. Time for a dead cat bounce?

 

[Hallatauer]

Feb 09: +0.66
YTD 09: +0.81

 

[DrFaustus]

I've decided to stick in a toe

50% G
25% C
25% S

ok, that's a bit more than a toe. I want to consider a moving stop of -1.5% but in this market, with this volatility, I just don't know if that's a good number. Anyone have any notions about that?