Dr Faustus's Account Talk

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Hiya's... been quiet for a while out of frustration. Been sitting here with all my funds in the G waiting, somewhat patiently, for some kind of turn around. I was hoping for May/June but that has long passed us by. Not much to say and not much to do limited to two IFT's a month. Just hope when the markets turn around and go on the upswing I'll be on the boat.
 
Well, I stuck my toe into the S fund ... got scared at the size of a one day downturn and switched to the F fund, where I got hammered over the course of a couple of days -- oh, and I missed out on a rise in the S fund by some 5 percent thus far.

::sigh::

At least I'm still in positive territory for the year
 
Dr Faustus said:
Well, I stuck my toe into the S fund ... got scared at the size of a one day downturn and switched to the F fund, where I got hammered over the course of a couple of days -- oh, and I missed out on a rise in the S fund by some 5 percent thus far.

::sigh::

At least I'm still in positive territory for the year
Click to expand...

Dr. F,
As I noted before you have already shown yourself as The Best of The Best

Don't feel bad my friend. That you are in POSITIVE is EXCELLENT

Consider someone who appears to have encountered a brain abnormality of some sort (like a clot or vessel blow out) and goes 100% S Fund on 6/5/08.

Well - that 5% is just peanuts - still a lot of territory to go.

I'm thinking 10 or 11/08 will spark a substantial rally and we will hit new highs with S Fund taking the lead.

Time will tell - GL
 
Thanks for the vote of confidence, SG! I think you're right, we're coming up on a bottom (if we haven't hit it already) ... the 3rd and 4th quarters of the USMs might yield some good returns.

In the meantime, I'll keep watching the charts ...
 
Hi Dan, been out for a while...I was in Alaska catching sockie salmon.

I am relieved to see that you are still just kind of biding your time. That adds validity to my approach, currently. I am still in G fund. Haven't left it since March. Don't want to go into uncharted territory and lose the miniskual? gains that I currently have made. After the last two days, things are looking pretty good. Maybe the bottom has been reached after all. At least I will keep my eye on it a little closer now. Boy, that two IFTs a month sure took the fun, and profit, out of our TSP funds.

Take care.

Craig:)
 
Dr Faustus said:
You think we're headed for another downturn?
Click to expand...

I don't really know. My good luck was sincere. There's so many good Tech
signs out there. Then again, there's so much bad news that the market
can't shrug off like today's Freddie/Frannie stuff. I'm simply confused by
it all. Honestly ! I have only one strong feeling. Stay away from the (I)
Fund. At least until we see a Firm Bull. :confused:
 
One of the problems we have is having to make a decision by noon EST. Most everybody on this MB knows that the way this market has been trending is that after 2:30pm EST the market can have a nice jump up or tank. That happened yesterday. Big candle down after 3 and a mediocre day turned ugly. I guess what I am trying to say is that our moves are based on luck and guts.
 
The only way I can feel secure about any move is to see a somewhat prolonged trend. This market is still too volitale for me. I keep seeing days where the market went up almost 3% in the C and S, and I go crazy and ask myself...What are you doing?????...the answer? NOTHING!!!!!. Is that any way to run a railroad? I want to be in SOMETHING...ANYTHING. But then the next day... stock take a dive. With only two moves a month....analysis paralysis tends to set in.......:confused: How can we see the long term day to day trend history for the S fund...since Tom only gives us the 1 and 5 day history? I really don't want to have to keep my own record. Any suggestions?
 
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crhuss said:
The only way I can feel secure about any move is to see a somewhat prolonged trend. How can we see the long term day to day trend history for the S fund? I really don't want to have to keep my own record. Any suggestions?
Click to expand...
I have been keeping my own records of TSP share prices for several years, in order to spot the longer trends. I have been posting the results on my account talk thread, but I need to make the results more readily apparent to the occasional reader. It's one of those "what do you mean you don't understand it - I know exactly what I meant!" problems. :laugh:

I'll keep working on format so that it might become more helpful to others, and will appreciate any comments.
 
crhuss said:
The only way I can feel secure about any move is to see a somewhat prolonged trend. This market is still too volitale for me. I keep seeing days where the market went up almost 3% in the C and S, and I go crazy and ask myself...What are you doing?????...the answer? NOTHING!!!!!. Is that any way to run a railroad? I want to be in SOMETHING...ANYTHING. But then the next day... stock take a dive. With only two moves a month....analysis paralysis tends to set in.......:confused: How can we see the long term day to day trend history for the S fund...since Tom only gives us the 1 and 5 day history? I really don't want to have to keep my own record. Any suggestions?
Click to expand...

I made this page, just for you!

http://www.corepuncher.com/misc/stocks.html
 
crhuss said:
The only way I can feel secure about any move is to see a somewhat prolonged trend. This market is still too volitale for me. I keep seeing days where the market went up almost 3% in the C and S, and I go crazy and ask myself...What are you doing?????...the answer? NOTHING!!!!!. Is that any way to run a railroad? I want to be in SOMETHING...ANYTHING. But then the next day... stock take a dive. With only two moves a month....analysis paralysis tends to set in.......:confused: How can we see the long term day to day trend history for the S fund...since Tom only gives us the 1 and 5 day history? I really don't want to have to keep my own record. Any suggestions?
Click to expand...

Funny you should ask ...

I really think you need to keep your own data. It only takes a few minutes a day once you have all of your spreadsheets set up, etc. That said ...

Someone told me once that I should start looking at weekly charts. Now there are several ways you can interpret that. How do you calculate your data points? Friday, close of business? (which appears to be the way that most people do it) Maybe Wednesday would be better. Or perhaps an average ...

Well ... I got to thinking about it. COB Friday charts are useless to me because I can't act upon them in time to get into the market the following week. Wednesday charts ... eh, ok ... but honestly, one data point week to week should be just as good as the next, right? So that's when I hit on the idea of doing my weekly charts based upon the prices at COB on Thursday.

Yes, Thursday! With a Thursday chart, I can see what is happening from week to week and still be able to make a decision by noon ET on Friday on whether or not to get in for the upcoming week. This chart isn't updated with this weeks data, but you get the idea.

View attachment 4465

This is a chart of the Sfund values for the last 30 Thursdays.

I think this interesting ....
 
Switching to 100% G COB today (8/29) Probably should have done this yesterday. Right now, am just hoping we get back to somewhere near 0% today.
 
Hi gang,
Finally saw what I have been waiting for. The Fed saying that the next rate adjustment is going to be up. To me that's a sure sign the economy is starting to rebound.

Though it has been a fun ride, the two IFT's a month have taken all the fun out of short term market analysis, I now only look at the longer trends and I see the start of a general up swing. Sure there will bumps along the road but that is the way it works.
 
Hey Hall,

Yeah ... I thought I saw the same at the start of the month ... so I got in ... and wound up with an increase of 0.02%. ( I haven't posted my MTD and YTD returns yet ) I'd have done better sitting in G. Oh well ...

I'm gonna wait a bit before getting back in again. Today's action, for example, is flashing red flags for me. Gustav didn't take down any oil rigs and didn't sink New Orleans, oil is plummeting ... and the S fund is sinking in spite of the huge positive in the futures market this morning.

So I am going to wait a bit before I get back in. 0.02% isn't enough to buy me the Pepto I need to deal with the ulcers this market is giving me.

I have half a mind to write Steve Losey, Mike Causey, et al and ask them how that buy and hold is coming. But I guess I just dont have the guts to stir the pot like that.
 
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