Dr Faustus's Account Talk

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Hey Dan,
Did you happen to check out Birchtree's comments yesterday about the USM? He is predicting a big time down trend before it recovers and starts going back up reliably. I know that now is not a good time to get into the USM because it has been on an up trend for soooo long..... but are you just waiting for the big down trend to get back into stocks? Are you still sitting in G fund until that happens? Or are you looking for someting else to trigger a move back into stocks?
I'm still sitting in G fund...I have to...I'm still waiting for my new password from the TSP guys. It's been 7 days now and I still don't have my new pass word after they changed the login process to a password of 8 characters.
Anyway, what are you thoughts? I just want to consider all the alternatives when I get a chance to do something!!:cheesy:

Thanks,

Craig
 
crhuss said:
Hey Dan,
Did you happen to check out Birchtree's comments yesterday about the USM? He is predicting a big time down trend before it recovers and starts going back up reliably. I know that now is not a good time to get into the USM because it has been on an up trend for soooo long..... but are you just waiting for the big down trend to get back into stocks? Are you still sitting in G fund until that happens? Or are you looking for someting else to trigger a move back into stocks?
I'm still sitting in G fund...I have to...I'm still waiting for my new password from the TSP guys. It's been 7 days now and I still don't have my new pass word after they changed the login process to a password of 8 characters.
Anyway, what are you thoughts? I just want to consider all the alternatives when I get a chance to do something!!:cheesy:

Thanks,

Craig
Click to expand...

Hey Craig,

That's **exactly** what I've been doing ... and have been biting my fingernails every day as a result. I *so* want to get in to the market - and I keep kicking myself for not having the guts to stay the course when I jumped into the USMs in early April. But yeah, I've been waiting for some kind of a downturn before I get in.

If you're looking to get in, I believe some people have had some luck with faxing in their TSP-50 forms. Mailing them in is still problematical, though I hear that method (eventually) works too.

Dan
 
I'm also sidelined in the G Fund for the time being... waiting... waiting... If I see some type of opening, I may IFT for a short term bump but the equities still look dismal.

For a long time, pre TSPTALK, I kept my funds split between the 3 equity funds. Once stocks start on a recovery, I'll go back to that as a long term strategy. It'll be a while before it happens... I may miss the start but once interest rates start to rise again, it'll be time to go equities long term-ish.
 
Why are you faxing and/or mailing in TSP-50? The restrictions were removed at noon 4/30. EVERYONE can now do IFT's electronically.
Dr Faustus said:
Hey Craig,

That's **exactly** what I've been doing ... and have been biting my fingernails every day as a result. I *so* want to get in to the market - and I keep kicking myself for not having the guts to stay the course when I jumped into the USMs in early April. But yeah, I've been waiting for some kind of a downturn before I get in.

If you're looking to get in, I believe some people have had some luck with faxing in their TSP-50 forms. Mailing them in is still problematical, though I hear that method (eventually) works too.

Dan
Click to expand...
 
That's **exactly** what I've been doing ... and have been biting my fingernails every day as a result. I *so* want to get in to the market - and I keep kicking myself for not having the guts to stay the course when I jumped into the USMs in early April. But yeah, I've been waiting for some kind of a downturn before I get in.
Click to expand...

Thanks Dan. I feel your pain, as well. Only I couldn't even get in to the USM in April cause I was locked out. Don't really like the Fax thing, though. I'd rather do nothing, and wait for the right entrance point, than do something wrong now...after being soooo patient for soooo long. I'll keep looking and analyzing with you and we can keep ourselves entertained with analysis paralysis until the right entrance point! I just don't want to be dumb and lose out when everyone else is making money.

Why are you faxing and/or mailing in TSP-50? The restrictions were removed at noon 4/30. EVERYONE can now do IFT's electronically
Click to expand...

Thanks for your suggestion luv2read....it's a long story! If you like long borning stories, I can share it with you some day!!

For a long time, pre TSPTALK, I kept my funds split between the 3 equity funds. Once stocks start on a recovery, I'll go back to that as a long term strategy. It'll be a while before it happens... I may miss the start but once interest rates start to rise again, it'll be time to go equities long term-ish.
Click to expand...


Thanks Hallatauer, What was the percentage split when you were in the stocks pre-tsptalk? Do you think you will still be in the market the same way, or has times changed your outlook?
 
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Hallatauer said:
I'm also sidelined in the G Fund for the time being... waiting... waiting... If I see some type of opening, I may IFT for a short term bump but the equities still look dismal.

For a long time, pre TSPTALK, I kept my funds split between the 3 equity funds. Once stocks start on a recovery, I'll go back to that as a long term strategy. It'll be a while before it happens... I may miss the start but once interest rates start to rise again, it'll be time to go equities long term-ish.
Click to expand...

crhuss said:
Thanks Hallatauer, What was the percentage split when you were in the stocks pre-tsptalk? Do you think you will still be in the market the same way, or has times changed your outlook?
Click to expand...
Birch seems to think this was just a correction and stocks are in a recovery, if I read him correctly.
 
ok .. I went with a 50 S / 50 I allocation this morning. I think I got in under the wire but am not entirely sure. I guess I'll find out soon enough. lol
 
Finally got my new password. Now, for some serious analysis. As I write...Dow down 97.86, S&P down 10.07. Looks like a good place to start.
Having to stay in the G fund for the past two and a half months, I finally made up my loss from the first three days of January...and am finally back to where I was Jan 1, 2008. Almost half the year over and I have nothing to show for all that money sitting there. Oh well....At least I haven't lost anything...like so many others.

Let's see...what to do...what to do??
 
crhuss said:
Thanks Hallatauer, What was the percentage split when you were in the stocks pre-tsptalk? Do you think you will still be in the market the same way, or has times changed your outlook?
Click to expand...

Back then I was 30% C 30% S and 40% I

The international funds were rising steadily the last few years and I was able to get a nice return that way for a while. The I fund seemed to be disconnected from the US markets and rose stronger. Now with oil prices so high, all the foreign markets are started to get squeezed also and everyone is almost in the same boat economically.

Since the US markets hit the wall first last fall I'm expecting it to climb out first... when they do I'll prolly go 50/50 C/S and watch for the I to follow a few months later... JMHO
 
Thanks Hallatauer,

After today, looks like we'll have to wait a little longer for the USM to stage a comeback. Take care:toung:
 
Looks like you should at least break even between Fri and Mon... I'm still sitting here with my finger on the trigger.. frozen in time... Think I'll go watch the hockey game... heh
 
Dr. Faustus,
I believe you IFTd 50S, 50I on Thursday. If that is so, you are spot on today with the S fund gaining 1.10% and the I fund gaining 1.26%. Congratulations!
 
Yeah, I managed to eek out a bit of a positive return there! Gotta keep this momentum going ...

I just checked out nsurf9's YTD return ... over 16%!! Holy Toledo, Ohio! Congrats to you, nsurf9!
 
Squale,

Regarding your "hope the market drops like a hammer" wish, please, please don't wish that on those of us who are still in and have our finger on the button. ;)

Lady
 
Please don't worry - tomorrow is another day, let's try to think a little longer term. Actually there are eight more days of possible rally in front of us, not that the G funders care.
 
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