Dr Faustus's Account Talk

[DrFaustus]

View attachment 6191 View attachment 6192

In the charts above, the green line shows the daily price, the blue line shows a 4 DMA, the yellow an 8 DMA and the red a 16 DMA.

As of yesterday, these charts were indicating that the price curve was leveling off - it looked like we were approaching an inflection point. My decision was based upon three things:

1) I believed the market was approaching an inflection point,
2) I didnt have a warm fuzzy about the future direction of the market, and
3) I had one IFT left for the month.

Given that, I decided that it would be best to pull back and reduce my exposure to the market. That way, I could still derive some benefit if the market continued to go up and shield myself a bit if the market decided to take a downturn.

 

[DrFaustus]

I'm pulling out ... good news from Citi and GE have failed to spur the market thus far which is indicating to me that the recent rally is running out of steam. So I'm going to 100% G cob today.

 

[Boghie]

Those Dang IFT Trading Limits...

Dr Faustus,

You have mentioned the limitation in IFT trades. That is, you had only one IFT available for the month so you used it to head back to the Lilly Pond.

However, you can bail out to the 'G Fund' at any time. You cannot increase holdings in any other fund, but you can retreat to G in any percentage you want at any time you want.

So, you could save your IFT transactions as forward trades into one of the other funds instead of using one of them to run to safety.

Then again, if you see the market as ready to tank why worry about using the IFT? Best to bail before we hear the wailing:laugh:

 

[DrFaustus]

Re: Those Dang IFT Trading Limits...

Dr Faustus,

You have mentioned the limitation in IFT trades. That is, you had only one IFT available for the month so you used it to head back to the Lilly Pond.

However, you can bail out to the 'G Fund' at any time. You cannot increase holdings in any other fund, but you can retreat to G in any percentage you want at any time you want.

So, you could save your IFT transactions as forward trades into one of the other funds instead of using one of them to run to safety.

Whoops ... you're right. Thanks for the education!

 

[Boghie]

Then Again...

Then again, Dr. Faustus, your move out of risk today is probably prescient.

Who cares about IFT trading limits when it comes to protecting ones principal. The charts today don’t look real good to me. Should have bailed with you…

 

[DrFaustus]

Off the wall idea #23

I wonder if it would be a good idea to start a collaboration on some sort of book about investing with the TSP. The TSP is such a different animal and I don't believe that there are any books on the shelves today that deal with our situation:

1) Index funds: I believe the idea of looking at a chart of an index fund the same way as you look at a chart of an individual company is flawed - their underpinnings are completely different.

2) Our enormous time lag: When we had unlimited IFTs, we had to guess by noon today where the market was going to begin and end the next day. Some of us are good at that - I loved to play the "dead cat bounce" myself. But it's all based upon hunches. Under our current IFT rules, we have to take a longer view ... are there any tools we can reliably look at to do that?

What do you all think ... does this idea have any merit?

 

[Medic72]

sounds like a good idea to me, only thing i can see is... until we get something different than "you have to have your ift's in before noon" we really still have to play hunches.

what will the book do tell us how to spot trends or chart reading?

the biggest problem i have is the noon deadline.

its like russian roulette.

other than that, any info geared toward the tsp would be a great start!

 

[DrFaustus]

Report Card

Apr 09: 2.61%
YTD 09: 4.21%

 

[DrFaustus]

I pulled the trigger today .. went 40G, 30C, 30S. Don't know if I made it under the wire for the transfer to go through tonight though.

 

[crhuss]

Hey Dan, good to hear from you....I thought about calling you today to see what your thoughts are. It looks like the market is trending up solidly. But you also said not to chase the gain, so I was waiting for a good drop before I got out of the G fund. It ain't happening....and I feel like I am being left behind. Corepunch thinks the drop is right around the corner....and we should stay in G. He says the dumb money is running the market. I don't know squat!!!! You got in yesterday! Why now? The G fund is certainly NOT the place to be over the long term.....not enough gain...it's just a good place to hide when there is no good indication of where the market is going. But I have been hiding too long and I want to do something...The market is trending up....good sign, right? Any advice?

Take Care,

Craig

 

[DrFaustus]

Hey Craig,

Here are the two main reasons why I decided to jump in:

View attachment 6255 View attachment 6256

As you can see, it looked like we were levelling off before, which is why I decided to get out ... didnt know which way the market was going. But it looks like it has decided to trend upward. Rather than suffer "Paralysis by Analysis," I decided to wade in. No guts, no glory, eh?

But it looks like I missed the cutoff yesterday (damn meeting .. and then the tsp.gov website wouldnt let me log on for some damn reason) so hopefully I'll catch some good air tomorrow.

 

[crhuss]

Thanks Dan!
I guess if you are going to follow the trend, you have to be chasing the upside. And the up side certainly seems to be on a roll. I would say that this swing to the up side certainly constitutes a trend. We just have to see how long it lasts. May doesn't look like a good month to make money, over the long haul. But these are very unusal times....and history doesn't necessarily hold since the Feds are screwing around so much with the economy.
Keep in touch...I appreciate your input and veiw-point.

 

[crhuss]

Hey Dan,
I was ready to get into the market, but just needed a little push. After sitting on the sidelines for over a year, I decided to get back into the market. I tried yesterday, but missed the cutoff. Too bad, since the market closed down yesterday. but I went G40, C30, S10, and I 20 today. Wanted to spread it around.
Hopefully the market will end down again today...but it doesn't look like it now. I don't know how long I will be there, but with the trend the way it is now, the little ups and downs will not bother me like they did when we could day trade.
Keep me informed if you see a big red bus ready to smash the market to hell, so I can retreat.
Take Care,

Craig

 

[DrFaustus]

Switched to 50G 50F cob today (5/13)

 

[DrFaustus]

Went to 100% G cob today. I got creamed this month ... lost 3.5% Still leaves me 0.9% positive for the year -- but given the recent rise in the S&P, that aint anything to get excited about.

 

[crhuss]

Hey Dan, I went part way in 2 weeks ago and then almost all in last week. I'm up to 4.29% on the autotracker. I figured staying in G fund was like nothing, and getting in was the only way to make anything. I'm just looking at the top 20 on autotrader and their posts. Then I figure out what is best for each fund based on previous performance and where the fund is right now. I don't get excited based on one day results, but a week of down turn and i will fly out of there and back to the G fund until I see another week of up turn. Then, if possilbe, i will get back in. It's all about the trends. I went from #152 on the autotracker to number 87 today. I wish you better luck than your May results, my friend. You deserve it.

Take care,

Craig

 

[DrFaustus]

Hey Dan, I went part way in 2 weeks ago and then almost all in last week. I'm up to 4.29% on the autotracker. I figured staying in G fund was like nothing, and getting in was the only way to make anything. I'm just looking at the top 20 on autotrader and their posts. Then I figure out what is best for each fund based on previous performance and where the fund is right now. I don't get excited based on one day results, but a week of down turn and i will fly out of there and back to the G fund until I see another week of up turn. Then, if possilbe, i will get back in. It's all about the trends. I went from #152 on the autotracker to number 87 today. I wish you better luck than your May results, my friend. You deserve it.

Take care,

Craig

Thanks, Craig! Hope you continue to do well.

 

[DrFaustus]

This is probably going to turn out bad but what the heck ...

25C 25S 50I cob 6/5/09

no guts, no glory, right?

 

[Uptrend]

Do you also hangglide and bungyjump?

 

[DrFaustus]

Do you also hangglide and bungyjump?

LOL ... Only figuratively