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Dr Faustus's Account Talk
- Thread starter DrFaustus
- Start date
So far today, C & S are doing very well and they did pretty well over the weekend as well - my gut hunch told me that there would be some stagnation with the holiday. And the I-fund looks like its going do well tomorrow as well.
So, after looking over all the charts and graphs and what-not, I think I'm going to with an even split between C, S and I for tomorrow. Sorry, Ebb!
Dan
So, after looking over all the charts and graphs and what-not, I think I'm going to with an even split between C, S and I for tomorrow. Sorry, Ebb!
Dan
qibovin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 6
Ehem! You realize that going to the F will be bucking the Ebb system again?:blink:
qibovin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 6
Thanks for calling that to my attention. I hadn't read those comments today and just assumed you were going to play this contrarian as yesterday. Incidentally, the G is most likely to pay Friday if that changes your allocations at all.Qibovin, Dr Faustus is right. I'd still be in the F-fund for tomorrow. Read my commentary on the ebbchart page for more detail.
Ok ... here we go
The EbbChart has pattern 3 for Friday (today) and indicates that pattern 1 is on tap for Monday.
For clarification, I will be listing the two-day patterns in the order of from.to ... ie, pattern 3.1 indicates going from pattern 3 to pattern 1.
As Ebb has indicated, Pattern 1 shows a very good overall chance of success: 7.55%, 10.35% and 8.63% for the C, S, and I funds respectively over some 36 cases.
But lets look at the two-day pattern. Pattern 3.1 has occurred 6 times since Jan 16, 2007 and its overall compounded return is as follows: +0.17, -0.09, +3.41, +3.43, +0.05 for the G, F, C, S and I funds respectively. Admittedly, 6 samples is not a lot to hang your hat on, but we'll get more eventually.
So, instead of moving to the I-fund for Monday, I will be doing a 100% transfer to the S-fund for Monday (09/10/07).
The EbbChart has pattern 3 for Friday (today) and indicates that pattern 1 is on tap for Monday.
For clarification, I will be listing the two-day patterns in the order of from.to ... ie, pattern 3.1 indicates going from pattern 3 to pattern 1.
As Ebb has indicated, Pattern 1 shows a very good overall chance of success: 7.55%, 10.35% and 8.63% for the C, S, and I funds respectively over some 36 cases.
But lets look at the two-day pattern. Pattern 3.1 has occurred 6 times since Jan 16, 2007 and its overall compounded return is as follows: +0.17, -0.09, +3.41, +3.43, +0.05 for the G, F, C, S and I funds respectively. Admittedly, 6 samples is not a lot to hang your hat on, but we'll get more eventually.
So, instead of moving to the I-fund for Monday, I will be doing a 100% transfer to the S-fund for Monday (09/10/07).
ebbnflow
Ebbchart
- Reaction score
- 30
Dr Faustus, that's +.05 only for the I-fund and +3.43 for the S-fund with the combo pattern 3.1? Dang, that's a very persuasive argument to me. I will go to the S-fund in my real account on tsp.gov and my ebbnflow account, but leave the system in the I-fund (too late to change the ebbchart for now). Thanks!
NyteTracker
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 2
Thanks Ebby and Faustus for the fine tune.Dr Faustus, that's +.05 only for the I-fund and +3.43 for the S-fund with the combo pattern 3.1? Dang, that's a very persuasive argument to me. I will go to the S-fund in my real account on tsp.gov and my ebbnflow account, but leave the system in the I-fund (too late to change the ebbchart for now). Thanks!
Additionally, energy and metals are overpriced. If they selloff, this is bad for C and I, making the S a safe haven.
http://money.cnn.com/data/commodities/
qibovin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 6
Good call on the F. I haven't had a good history with F, so I when for the (hopefully) "sure thing" G penny.
I actually wandered over to your thread to view the Ebbchartr combo info. Great catch! I'm going to have to go back and change my allocation now.
qibovin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 6
Oops, I actually had to go do work and missed the window, but at least I'm "in."I'm going to have to go back and change my allocation now.
The EbbChart has pattern 1 for Monday (today) and indicates that pattern 2 is on tap for Tuesday.
As Ebb has indicated, Pattern 2 shows a very good overall chance of success: 4.47%, 3.22% and 5.24% for the C, S, and I funds respectively over some 18 cases.
Pattern 1.2 (from 1 to 2) has occurred 4 times since Jan 16, 2007 and its overall compounded return is: +0.08, +0.53, -0.52, -0.63, +0.47 for the G, F, C, S and I funds respectively.
For these 4 cases, the I-fund was positive on the first 2 but was negative on the last two. Now, 4 samples isn't much to get excited about and I suppose could make an argument for sticking with the I-fund.
However, I want to give these two-day patterns a whirl and as new data comes in, there might be another fund that does better ... ie, today could push the I-fund out in front.
For now though ... I'll be going 100% F for Tuesday ( 09/11/07 ).
As Ebb has indicated, Pattern 2 shows a very good overall chance of success: 4.47%, 3.22% and 5.24% for the C, S, and I funds respectively over some 18 cases.
Pattern 1.2 (from 1 to 2) has occurred 4 times since Jan 16, 2007 and its overall compounded return is: +0.08, +0.53, -0.52, -0.63, +0.47 for the G, F, C, S and I funds respectively.
For these 4 cases, the I-fund was positive on the first 2 but was negative on the last two. Now, 4 samples isn't much to get excited about and I suppose could make an argument for sticking with the I-fund.
However, I want to give these two-day patterns a whirl and as new data comes in, there might be another fund that does better ... ie, today could push the I-fund out in front.
For now though ... I'll be going 100% F for Tuesday ( 09/11/07 ).
In terms of the two-day patterns, the rest of this week looks bad except for Friday.
Wed => Pat 2.4, 1 hit, +0.00, -0.09, -0.36, -0.44, +0.25 for G,F,C,S,I
Thu => Pat 4.6, 1 hit, +0.08, +0.18, -0.24, +0.05, -0.17 for G,F,C,S,I
Fri => Pat 6.4, 1 hit, +0.00, -0.35, +1.45, +1.89, +1.84 for G,F,C,S,I
Looks like we might get a chance to make some money on Friday ... but its gonna be tough sailing all week.
There *are* good two-day patterns, I swear!
Wed => Pat 2.4, 1 hit, +0.00, -0.09, -0.36, -0.44, +0.25 for G,F,C,S,I
Thu => Pat 4.6, 1 hit, +0.08, +0.18, -0.24, +0.05, -0.17 for G,F,C,S,I
Fri => Pat 6.4, 1 hit, +0.00, -0.35, +1.45, +1.89, +1.84 for G,F,C,S,I
Looks like we might get a chance to make some money on Friday ... but its gonna be tough sailing all week.
There *are* good two-day patterns, I swear!
Last edited:
qibovin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 6
Thanks for posting this intriguing idea and supporting data. Looks to me like the I fund is the best choice for Wednesday, and a 0.25% gain is nothing at which to scoff. That's an annualized (without compounding) 62.5% rate of return!! Obviously one data point is not very statistical, but it may very well be more likely to be repeated than the statistically unlikely gain of almost 2% on Friday. JMHO
Incidently, this shows the G-penny paying on Thursday, which is not impossible. I was just crunching some numbers and planning to post to the G-fund forum. By my limited calculations, there is about a 30% chance that the G-penny could come Thursday. O/W Friday for which it would not be worth missing the I-fund.
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