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Dr Faustus's Account Talk
- Thread starter DrFaustus
- Start date
maverick06
Member
S looks good to me, i moved some to I, man i hate the I fund, why do I even play there, it is always trying to screw me.
Happy New Year Everyone!
In spite of my performance last year, I'm actually pleased with how my system performed last year. The only curve ball I got thrown was in trying to figure out what to do when the market starts trading sideways.
Anyway, lessons learned: 1) I need to be more diligent with keeping up on the charts - especially with the predictive aspect. ( this is one reason why I didn't want to try to start selling my system ). 2) I need to
try to factor in the IFT limit. ( that still really chafes ).
Good luck to everyone this year and Happy (re)Allocating!
Dan
In spite of my performance last year, I'm actually pleased with how my system performed last year. The only curve ball I got thrown was in trying to figure out what to do when the market starts trading sideways.
Anyway, lessons learned: 1) I need to be more diligent with keeping up on the charts - especially with the predictive aspect. ( this is one reason why I didn't want to try to start selling my system ). 2) I need to
try to factor in the IFT limit. ( that still really chafes ).
Good luck to everyone this year and Happy (re)Allocating!
Dan
It's Monday, 1/13/14. My system for the S fund indicates you should be in today. However, a drop of .22% ( roughly 7 cents ) would mean an ALERT signal for tomorrow and a drop of .70% ( roughly 24 cents ) would trigger an OUT signal. Check the markets around IFT time ( 12 EST ) to see if you can get a clearer picture of where the market is going to wind up today. Right now ( 10:22AM) the market seems to down but is fighting to come back.
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Well, things looked like they were going to be ho-hum up until about when the bottom started to erode out from under us. Just after our IFT deadline, of course ... ah, the joys of the TSP. Anyway, I haven't run yesterday's returns yet but they look well below the fenceposts I mentioned yesterday. Therefore, my system is very likely going to indicate that it wants OUT of the market, so I'll be making an IFT to G today. 100% G COB today.
Well at least the market bounced back enough to get us back to even on the S before I bailed ... not bad, eh? I should be back to 100% G today. Oh ... and lesson learned .. I updated my spreadsheets to prevent radical changes to the buy status unless they are truly warranted ( .. ie, say we're OUT and have a huge day so that all indicators turn GREEN. In that case, I don't think we want to wait before getting back IN. But time will tell. )
Another reason to avoid big swings ... for example, I should have never generated an "OUT" signal yesterday - I should have generated an "ALERT" instead. Then I could have caught today's upswing as well as I wouldn't have been out of the S fund. Oh well, live and learn. Another reason why I'm out here on the Tracker testing my sea-legs. : ) I've seen two problems with my system: 1) I tend to get out a day earlier and get in a day late ... this has KILLED my returns in the past as those are usually huge swing days. 2: The system gets wonky when the market starts to trade sideways. I'm not entirely sure what to do about that yet.
1/16/14 ... today's signal is an ALERT
Tomorrow's Forecast: 31% IN, 62% ALERT, 7% OUT
If you're in, it's safe to stay in; if you're out, it's safe to stay out. However, from previous history, the model suggests you should be IN.
For those who don't know or don't remember, these forecast numbers are for the S-fund only.
Tomorrow's Forecast: 31% IN, 62% ALERT, 7% OUT
If you're in, it's safe to stay in; if you're out, it's safe to stay out. However, from previous history, the model suggests you should be IN.
For those who don't know or don't remember, these forecast numbers are for the S-fund only.
1/23/14 ... S-fund is generating an ALERT today
Friday's Forecast: 7% IN, 62% ALERT, 31% OUT
Although it looks like we have a significant out percentage, I'd take that with a grain of salt - it's going to take a 1.9% downward swing today for the S-fund to generate an OUT signal. But from the charts, it appears like today is likely going to be a down day.
Friday's Forecast: 7% IN, 62% ALERT, 31% OUT
Although it looks like we have a significant out percentage, I'd take that with a grain of salt - it's going to take a 1.9% downward swing today for the S-fund to generate an OUT signal. But from the charts, it appears like today is likely going to be a down day.
The Lord giveth ...
Wow ... a steep decline in the markets Friday led the charts to generate an OUT signal ... and a 100% probability that we'll still be out tomorrow. Am waiting to see what happens around noonish today. If the markets look like they're trying to stage a comeback, I might be persuaded to stay in. If the reverse is true and the markets continue the slide, it's splitsville for me and the S fund.
Wow ... a steep decline in the markets Friday led the charts to generate an OUT signal ... and a 100% probability that we'll still be out tomorrow. Am waiting to see what happens around noonish today. If the markets look like they're trying to stage a comeback, I might be persuaded to stay in. If the reverse is true and the markets continue the slide, it's splitsville for me and the S fund.
Well, we could be seeing the end of the latest run-up of the S fund. Although the S-fund is still generating a BUY signal today (3/3/14), anything from a +0.15% to a -2.00% will generate an ALERT signal for tomorrow. A drop of more than 2% will generate a SELL signal. Will the markets come back today? I don't know, I think they're responding to the situation in the Ukraine. I'd wait another hour ( it's approx 8:30 here in AZ ) before making my decision .. if there's continued downward pressure, getting out might be prudent. But where to go? The F-fund has been doing well lately, so if you're the gambling type you might sojourn there. Otherwise, park your funds in G.
Well, if you've been watching, you all know I stuck with the S-fund. It's generating an ALERT signal today. But my charts tend to act a little wonky when the market starts to trade sideways so I'm just watching and waiting. The S-fund was down this morning but seems to be trying to come back, so I'll probably stick with it for at least one more day ...
