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Dr Faustus's Account Talk
- Thread starter DrFaustus
- Start date
Is the party over?
It looks like the run-up on the S-fund may be finally fizzing out. The derivatives ( mathematical, not financial ) are leveling off and the market may start trading sideways. Which means that anything can happen. Im still in ... but my finger is on the trigger and it's getting itchy ....
It looks like the run-up on the S-fund may be finally fizzing out. The derivatives ( mathematical, not financial ) are leveling off and the market may start trading sideways. Which means that anything can happen. Im still in ... but my finger is on the trigger and it's getting itchy ....
Nerves of Steel ...
There's been a downward trend in the S-fund all day and, as of this writing, the market is hovering at the 0% line. My charts indicate that it's going to require a HEAVY down day to generate a sell signal for tomorrow ... and it doesn't look like that is going to happen. So I'm easing off the trigger ... but my hand is still on the gun. : ) ( love those western metaphors )
There's been a downward trend in the S-fund all day and, as of this writing, the market is hovering at the 0% line. My charts indicate that it's going to require a HEAVY down day to generate a sell signal for tomorrow ... and it doesn't look like that is going to happen. So I'm easing off the trigger ... but my hand is still on the gun. : ) ( love those western metaphors )
Whipsaw
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 227
I'm on the other end of that same street, standing on the lilly pad, duster pulled back on my elbow, hand hovering a few inches from the grip of my hogleg, sun is in the eye of the S-Fund, just spit tobacco juice on the head of a nearby dog...
Wow ... really missed a bullet there the last few days. The last couple of days have shown some nice returns but the charts aren't suggesting I should get back in yet. Even if today were an awesome day (+3 sigma), that would only generate an ALERT status for tomorrow. So I'm continuing to sit on the sidelines and watch. Personally, I don't think we're out of the woods yet but, that's just my hunch.
My charts are indicating that a good return today ( ie, up over 0.50% ) will generate a BUY signal. As of 8:40 PDT, we are up over that signal. So, barring some sort of afternoon crash, it seems like now would be a good time to get it, so ...
100% S cob today ( 10/20/14 )
100% S cob today ( 10/20/14 )
All ... I know today looks bad ( down almost 1% at 11:18 EDT ) but my charts are indicating that we should hold the course today. Even if today is a -3 sigma day ( ie, the market loses a LOT ), my charts are only going to generate an ALERT signal. Anything better than a -3 sigma produces a BUY signal .... so, once again, my advice is to hold the course through today!
felixthecat
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 40
- AutoTracker
Say's the drowning captain as he tries to convince his shipmates to stay the course as a Huge Rogue Wave rolls the ship.
Actually, I agree with you. Just thought I would throw that bit of humor in during this rocky morning start.
RealMoneyIssues
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 101
Hey RMI,
Details? Not much ... if the market goes by +1 sigma or more, we're in the GREEN; 0 or -1 sigma generates an ALERT; -2 sigma or less generates a SELL. So far, it looks like we're in the 0 sigma territory.
I need to attach dollar/cent amounts to these sigma values ... it's next on my to-do list but I haven't gotten to that yet. It's a little difficult since these curves are best fit curves on top of Moving Averages. I *feel* it's doable - but I haven't expended much brainpower on it yet.
Dan
Details? Not much ... if the market goes by +1 sigma or more, we're in the GREEN; 0 or -1 sigma generates an ALERT; -2 sigma or less generates a SELL. So far, it looks like we're in the 0 sigma territory.
I need to attach dollar/cent amounts to these sigma values ... it's next on my to-do list but I haven't gotten to that yet. It's a little difficult since these curves are best fit curves on top of Moving Averages. I *feel* it's doable - but I haven't expended much brainpower on it yet.
Dan
RealMoneyIssues
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 101
Nope, makes sense. I have seen others use -2 to +2 sigma signals (BB), but it really depends on the curve the data is based on. Do you use 20 day? 10 day? 10 week?
Well, I want to be more responsive so I use three curves - a short term ( 3 day ), and medium term ( 6 day ) and a long term ( 12 day ) and then examine the relationships between them.
I fit a 'best fit' curve to each MDA so that I can do things like compute derivatives, etc.
Basically, I'm pleased with how things are going but I need to pay more attention to updating my data - and I should do it at night instead of waiting until morning. Waiting until the morning introduces critical delays such as sleeping in, traffic, etc which causes me to miss the "rebalancing' window.
It looks like the DMAs ( 3,6 and 12 ) are starting to level out - and this means that anything could happen. We're still 'in the green' for today but I am showing an ALERT status again, indicating a possible change in direction ahead. An extreme down day would most likely generate a SELL signal for the COB ... so if it looks like the markets are taking a nosedive, I think today would be a good day to 'rebalance'. It's too early to say what fund to shift too ... I've been thinking of moving into F instead of G. The F fund seems to have a strong 'anti-correlation' with the S and C funds - ie, if the S and C are going up, the F is going down. If S and C are tanking, F is going up. Food for thought ....
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