Dr Faustus's Account Talk

[DrFaustus]

Mar 20, 2013

As predicted, yesterday's 0.40% drop caused the S-fund to generate an OUT signal.
Today, we would need a rise of +1.07% to get us back to an ALERT status and a whopping 2.68% to generate a GREEN.

In spite of opening at +0.5% and the S-fund being currently at +0.61%, I just don't see those kinds of moves happening today. So I'm getting out of the S fund, COB today. Going back to G.

Was a nice run, I'll take it.

 

[MrBowl]

Mar 20, 2013

As predicted, yesterday's 0.40% drop caused the S-fund to generate an OUT signal.
Today, we would need a rise of +1.07% to get us back to an ALERT status and a whopping 2.68% to generate a GREEN.

In spite of opening at +0.5% and the S-fund being currently at +0.61%, I just don't see those kinds of moves happening today. So I'm getting out of the S fund, COB today. Going back to G.

Was a nice run, I'll take it.

Thanks for your posts. Since you are one of the better ones here (Tracker) I always stop and read what you have to say.

 

[DrFaustus]

Thanks for your posts. Since you are one of the better ones here (Tracker) I always stop and read what you have to say.

Thanks Mr Bowl!

I'm trying to test my new system this year, get my legs under me before I take off running. The system has performed well and my returns would be better had I blindly followed it. I'm trying to back off and trust it more - which I know is the only true test, but it's hard to do at times. It tends to act squirrelly when the markets are relatively flat - not sure what to do about that yet. But as long as the markets are trending one way or another, it's giving clear signals. Now I just need to watch what happens when it calls a top (as it just did) or a bottom.

There are a lot of TSP superstars on here that you should look at as well, even if you don't subscribe to the premium services. Find a top performer and ride their coattails

Dan

 

[MrBowl]

I try to take notice of who does well on the Tracker and if they have anything to say I want to read it. Lots of the time people like me read stuff but don't let you know, so how do you know? I hope to drop little hints to folks like you to show my appreciation for sharing what you're working on.

I've been on TSP Talk for over 3 years now and I'm only starting to not be overwhelmed by all of the information here. I'm now to the point where I read a lot of different forums and seek out opposing views and strategies to get an accurate picture of the trends.

Good luck with your system. I'll be watching your updates.

 

[DrFaustus]

Mar 21, 2013

Yesterday's performance did indeed leave us with a RED (stop, hell no, whatever moniker you want to attach to "SELL") signal. Anything between -0.81% and +0.66% today is going to generate an ALERT signal. So far, it looks like we might test those lows and it seems like yesterday was a good day to get out. But there's always that G-D stupid 2-IFT rule to consider ... At any rate, I'm happy to be sitting in G today.

 

[DrFaustus]

Mar 25, 2013

Friday's performance left my S-chart signalling that now was a good time to get in to the market. But I'm going to ignore that for two reasons:

1) Overall, the market has been relatively flat for the past week. My charts tend to behave squirrelly when that happens
2) I want to see how this whole Cyprus thing is going to shake out. I have a feeling that there is going to be some significant fallout from the gov't confiscation of private funds. I don't know what that fallout will be but I'm betting that it ain't gonna be good.

so ... still in G today.

Dan

 

[DrFaustus]

Mar 26, 2013

S fund is giving me an ALERT status. Yesterday I mentioned that a flat market can cause squirrelly results, I wanted to give you an idea of what Im talking about :



Here the green line represents the price for the last several days, the blue is a short-term tracker, yellow is a medium-term tracker and the red is a long term tracker. As you can see, the price has been bouncing around a single value. This gives any projection a low degree of confidence because the market can easily break out in either direction.

Happy Trading! Still in G today ....

Dan

 

[DrFaustus]

Mar 28, 2013

Well, it looks like we're breaking out towards the high side today. Any move towards the upside is going to give us a GREEN indicator. And it looks like we are definitely going to end up on the plus side today. So the charts say to put in a BUY order for today.

So far, it doesn't seem like the Cyprus thing is affecting us ... but I have a feeling there is going to be a ripple effect. Nonetheless, I need to put my brain aside and do what the charts say, so ...

100% S cob today

Dan

 

[DrFaustus]

Im out .... 100% G cob today ( Apr 03, 2013 )

 

[rcknfrewld]

You could say the doctor is...out

 

[Talan150]

Are you a real doctor? i have this never ending, nagging pain in my neck for...well everysince i got married... Any suggestions? lol

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Are you a real doctor? i have this never ending, nagging pain in my neck for...well everysince i got married... Any suggestions? lol

Should have a trusted friend look...
Stabbed in the back: 3-inch knife removed after 3 years

 

[DrFaustus]

Are you a real doctor? i have this never ending, nagging pain in my neck for...well everysince i got married... Any suggestions? lol

Nope, am not a real doctor nor do I play one on TV. However, I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

 

[Handballer]

Hi there Dr. Do you share your computer witth your wife?

 

[DrFaustus]

Hi there Dr. Do you share your computer witth your wife?

Nope ... am no longer married. Why do you ask?

 

[DrFaustus]

So the market's been going up up and up ... and I'm still on the sidelines. What the hell is going on?

Well, to put it mildly, I f'd up. My brain got in the way again. At the start of this latest rally, I was sure it would be a flash in the pan, so I sat on the sideline. But now it feels like I would be chasing returns if I got in now, so I'm continuing to wait ... sure that on the day I get in, the market will tank. Oi!!!

Well, the good news is that once again, the system has been telling me to get in ... but the bad news is that I've been overriding it. I need to learn to stop doing that.

So it's been 5 months for the system ... how's it working out. Overall, I'm pleased. My returns don't show it ... the system is actually working much better than my current level of return would indicate. But we gotta walk before we run, right?

btw ... does anyone know a good link to get a market update on the TSP funds? I was using a yahoo finance link but then it died for some reason. Short of coming here to TSPtalk (which isn't a bad thing), I don't have a way to get a market peek any more.

 

[Talan150]

I was using Yahoo too. I thought it was my link that was bad. I guess I need to find something else too. I miss peeking.

 

[maverick06]

I use google, not great, but good

S
https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXNASDAQ:W4500&ei=LfaUUdiGEKiAlwO-9QE
C
https://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX&ei=LfaUUdiGEKiAlwO-9QE
I
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSEARCA:EFA&ei=LfaUUdiGEKiAlwO-9QE
F
https://www.google.com/finance?q=MUTF:VBMFX&ei=LfaUUdiGEKiAlwO-9QE

 

[jkenjohnson]

So the market's been going up up and up ... and I'm still on the sidelines. What the hell is going on?

Well, to put it mildly, I f'd up. My brain got in the way again. At the start of this latest rally, I was sure it would be a flash in the pan, so I sat on the sideline. But now it feels like I would be chasing returns if I got in now, so I'm continuing to wait ... sure that on the day I get in, the market will tank. Oi!!!

Well, the good news is that once again, the system has been telling me to get in ... but the bad news is that I've been overriding it. I need to learn to stop doing that.

So it's been 5 months for the system ... how's it working out. Overall, I'm pleased. My returns don't show it ... the system is actually working much better than my current level of return would indicate. But we gotta walk before we run, right?

btw ... does anyone know a good link to get a market update on the TSP funds? I was using a yahoo finance link but then it died for some reason. Short of coming here to TSPtalk (which isn't a bad thing), I don't have a way to get a market peek any more.

Hey Doc - my sentiments exactly. I don't know what it will take to force a pullback. The market just seems unstoppable.

 

[DrFaustus]

Any kind of positive return on the day generates a buy indicator in the S fund today. And it looks like that is going to be the case, so ... I'm all in, 100% S cob today (5/30/13)

Have a good weekend everyone!