crws's Account Talk

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I read Soylent Green many years ago, but I don't think I ever saw the movie... 2022! I better get Bohgie to do an Alpo estimate for me pronto!:laugh:

my favorite of that era & still to this day- (book & movie)... The Andromeda Strain
http://www.tcm.com/mediaroom/index.jsp?cid=34642

grandma said:
that was one scary movie! And WHAT a cast of actors!

http://www.tcm.com/mediaroom/index.jsp?cid=78244

Seems like it hasn't been too many months ago we were talking about it again, for whatever reason....
Click to expand...
 
Buckle up!
http://www.dailymarkets.com/forex/2010/06/28/forex-trading-us-non-farm-payrolls-week-begins/
Forex Trading: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Week Begins

By Forex Yard on June 28, 2010
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Week Begins
After a relatively calm trading week, an extremely volatile session is expected starting today.
Last week, the Dollar fell against most of the majors as poor housing data weakened the greenback;
however this could all change following the U.S. employment data which is expected on Friday.
Traders are also advised to follow the ADP forecast which is expected on Wednesday, as it is considered
to be a reliable forecast for the real result that will be published on Friday. Will the Dollar Erase last week’s losses?
 
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-bu...-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

The bulls are ignoring the economic realities.


Dee perceives the spanking move up from the lows—as do we—as a cyclical rally in a secular bear market. Now he thinks that rally may be topping out in preparation for the return of the beastly bear. And because he's a seasoned global investor, his negative view extends just about everywhere.
He's concerned that the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus so liberally applied in 2008-2009 is starting to run out of steam, with financial conditions tightening and leading economic indicators pointing to a stretch of "anemic activity." He takes note also of "structural headwinds," such as public and private deleveraging, higher taxes, greater regulation and trade tensions.
And Dee cites the well-publicized woes of the European bloc, which accounts for 20% of the world's GDP, as further evidence that the global economy, as he puts it, is downshifting.
The period of easy comparisons in corporate results, he says, is coming to a close, and that could be a significant turn-off for investors. The most vulnerable stocks, Dee believes, are those that benefited most from the "huge rally in credit and recovery in global growth." But he admits he's hard-pressed "to find areas of the world that will not be dragged down."
"Although the fundamentals in the U.S., Europe and Japan are worse," Dee spots plenty of downside in emerging markets and doesn't fancy the notion of decoupling. As you somehow may have gleaned, he currently has what he dubs a "short bias." And he's put his money where his mouth is: His shorts are in steel, copper, iron ore, metallurgical coal, oil services, autos, casinos and house furnishings.
In a world weighed down by debt and low nominal GDP growth, with deflationary pressures mounting, it's a no-brainer that risk assets aren't likely to fare well.
Dee points out that "we are sailing into these choppy waters without a life preserver; fiscal and monetary levers have already been pulled." That means that come another financial crisis, "the only policy response left will be to print money." Which, of course, is what the gold bugs are counting on and why bullion has glistened so brightly.
He sums it all up this way: What we've had since May is a nice bounce by an oversold market. "The rally, however," he cautions, "has been ragged. I think it's very timely to sell those tired longs and short anything in the way of the coming storm."
 
Employment #'s perspective
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/search/label/Employment

Andrew Tilton of Goldman Sachs noted this in a research note yesterday:
"We are cautiously optimistic that June’s payroll report will show a pickup in private-sector payroll growth to around 150,000. In part, this is because there seems to be some “crowding out” of private sector payroll growth by short-term Census hiring—indeed, this may explain a good part of the payroll disappointment last month. Total payrolls should be down about 100,000 in June as a large portion of Census employment rolls off."​
 
Well at this point, I'd consider the F Fund to be galloping into the sunset, and chasing it would do more damage than good.
The overseas rumor mill has it that Helicopter Ben has the presses warming up and the Santa Chopper on standby.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...er-money-printing-by-the-Federal-Reserve.html
Where will he go first??
He will probably have to wait for the ink to dry on the new batch, so I imagine the 3.9B on pallets and slated for Afghanistan will need to be moved out of the way for the next batch (much bigger you see), and since the only thing the G20 agreed on is for each to do their own thing as long as debt is cut in 3 years, I think Bennie will invest in some cheap airline fuel and take a long vacation around the country, spreading wealth and good cheer at the start of Q3.
Hmmm.
That would lead me to believe S Fund is the STBull place to be, and my IFT availability will be right in time to COB 7/02, pending the employment whisper #'s of course.
Now, with the end of year 3 of the new administration previously proven by Pepperdine U to be near a 50% gain in the markets over the low of year 2, the 14k of yesteryear arriving circa 12/31/2011 would imply a Dow 7000 entry point for the long run after selling in May and staying away until Oct/Nov.
 
Last edited:
revised.... no entry point of Dow 7000. It's 50% from low, not 100%, I misread.
Here are the articles:
Sy Harding's:
http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/harding/2010/0611.html

and the Pepperdine Study
(lots of data. Very good read)
http://gbr.pepperdine.edu/043/stocks.html

This will be my plan going forward.

crws said:
Now, with the end of year 3 of the new administration previously proven by Pepperdine U to be near a 50% gain in the markets over the low of year 2, the 14k of yesteryear arriving circa 12/31/2011 would imply a Dow 7000 entry point for the long run after selling in May and staying away until Oct/Nov.
Click to expand...
 
here it is.
The news in advance. Listen carefully.
Ben just got the green light (i.e. told. body language- he never looks up) to have Christmas in July.
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/as...10-06-29/C1B1C931-530B-4347-B5BD-B4D19FC797EB


Hurlbert's notes:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bull-market-holding-on-by-a-thread-2010-06-30

All this is enough to make most bulls go into hibernation, if not throw in the towel all together. In fact, I had to look hard to find an adviser among the nearly 200 I monitor who is willing to give the bull market the benefit of the doubt.
Richard Band, editor of Richard Band's Profitable Investing, however, is one of them. It's worth reviewing his reasoning, since he provides three specific triggers that would convince him that he is wrong and that a bear market is in force.


Band refers to these three triggers as "fail-safe indicators" that in coming weeks "will either confirm it's OK to keep buying stocks, or push us toward the exit." The three are:
  • A CRB Spot Commodity Index above 370. Band explains: "If the global economy is to keep growing, industrial consumers from Shanghai to Shreveport will need to buy raw materials. Over the past 18 months, [the CRB Spot Commodity Index] has proved to be an uncannily accurate stock market barometer. Thus, I wouldn't want to see the CRB spot index drop below 400 in the near term (yellow flag). A steeper decline to 370 or less would herald serious concerns about a double-dip recession (code red)."
  • A euro above $1.15. Band explains: "The $1.18 to $1.20 area formed a significant band of support for the euro over a lengthy period in 2004-2006. Hence, it would be reasonable to expect multinational organizations that pay their bills in euros to step in and buy the currency at these levels. As long as the $1.18 to $1.20 bottom holds, I grade this indicator green. However, a plunge to $1.15 or less in July or August would suggest the European Union's problems were getting out of hand -- a red flare for stocks."
  • New lows on NYSE below 218. This particular number derives from the market's action on May 6, the day of the so-called "flash crash," when new 52-week lows on the NYSE peaked at 218. Yet, in early June, even as the stock market was dropping below its early May levels, the number of fresh new 52-week lows never got as high as 218 -- constituting, in Band's opinion, a "green glimmer." If this positive divergence doesn't last, however, and the "daily lows list [spikes] to more than 218," then watch out.
Surprisingly, none of these three triggers came even close to being hit on Tuesday, despite the Dow's 268-point plunge. The CRB Spot Commodity Index fell by less than 1%, to 415.26, well above Band's 370 trigger. The euro closed at $1.2188, and the number of fresh new lows on the NYSE was 131.
 
Now to determine which day the announcement will come...
Before this Friday's jobs report bloodletting, or after it; -after the Friday close would allow time over the
holiday weekend/recess to verify the plan and stir up some hype and speculation.
Decisions, decisions.

crws said:
here it is.
The news in advance. Listen carefully.
Ben just got the green light (i.e. told. body language- he never looks up) to have Christmas in July.
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/as...10-06-29/C1B1C931-530B-4347-B5BD-B4D19FC797EB
Click to expand...
 
The market appears to be teetering on a precipice. Now would seem to be a predictable time to fire up the printing presses yet again.
 
I'm holding off on the trigger back in today.
at -1% so far, we are halfway to keeping up with the rest of the world's markets.
Gold's down 28 (over 40 in the last few days), AGG is up, but not that much... VIX is retreating.
Where is the money going?
 
Alright, amid the doom & gloom, I'm getting my suit ready for a dive.
The I Fund & BP were up strong the end of the day, with the Euro gaining as well.
I'm beginning to think, again, that next week will be much brighter.
For all the propaganda of this, I can relate.

http://bp.concerts.com/gom/kwellsreliefwells062710.htm

Now to decide how to allocate an ST Bull IFT-

S Fund- High probability of the most snap back, biggest beneficiary of any small business $, but prone to wild dynamics.

C Fund- Blue chips with cash reserves. Maybe not the best chance of strong forward outlook, but less cyclical.

I Fund- Coupled with BP and the EU stimulus & stability plan, along with record gold prices & the rush to US Treasuries, this could be the divergence of equities low and gold high that sets up a funding crossover.

-thoughts?
 
crws said:
Where is the money going?
Click to expand...


crws,

In my opinion some Big Money players are getting positioned and ready to buy......and it will be soon. Now, time will tell if they really are the Smart Money - this will be a trade for them not an IT buy signal.

So we wait and see if we get the rally. They will be positioned well if the rally starts and the normal Bear Market squeeze will take place first. They will run it up enough to get the chart slaves all back on buy signals again before they pull the plug for the next leg down.
It will be a lower low in my opinion. So, just trade it if you buy it!

The smart money doesn’t always get it correct and we could head much lower, but you asked the question and that is my opinion. I’m sure many will disagree with it, but that is what makes the market. So, we shall see.

Good trading to you – this market is not for investors anymore. Come back in 2012 or so!

I'm adding long positions here and will be buying some using TSP money. I NEVER make 100% moves anymore, so I'll probably make two 25% moves. It all depends what happens tomorrow. Big rally or Big sell-off tomorrow - What say you?? I'm not chasing if we rally....I have know idea how the crooks and the operators will play it tomorrow.
 
I'm suspicious, really.
I think that most individual investors are suspicious as well, and I think that algos have alot to do with it.
I'm not sure I buy into the bulls/bears battle until you put it into a video game perspective where there is emotional detachment.
Take today for an example, and the intra-day rally after auto sales data.
Push up, then push back down.
Maybe I didn't notice as much before I started paying more attention to my TSP,
but this market (at least this summer) seems less about the real state of the economy, and more about creating trading opportunities and profits.

A conspiracy theorist may put forth that with some measure of financial reform likely to soon pass,
the bankster's trading desks are frantically working to secure as much profit from wild trading swings as possible,
in hopes to offset losses from purging REO's on their YOY books if their derivatives desks breach the 3% threshold and need separate funding.

If the banksters had to tin cup for REO's again, after all the noise about record profits with free Gov $, I think Greece riots would end up here.

With the Fed giving $ away for free, and the banks buying even just 2% yields, that would surely suffice as a hedge if they anticipated
upcoming rocky times, and it would also seem an indicator if the AGG began a retreat that the safe stash was staging for reallocation.

The market only down 40 today after all the bad press this week about the Friday jobs report makes me wonder how
much of the smart money (and gold) went long in equities today.

One thing I do feel fairly certain about, when BP kills that well, the energy sector is going to blow just like the well did.
My point being, I think they are much closer than they are truly letting on, partly for the sake of a conservative estimate,
but I'd venture to say just as much in hopes of saving face.

I'm still setting up to IFT in COB tomorrow, ratio yet defined, pending a sufficient amount of initial hemorrhaging.


robo said:
crws,

In my opinion some Big Money players are getting positioned and ready to buy......and it will be soon. Now, time will tell if they really are the Smart Money - this will be a trade for them not an IT buy signal.

So we wait and see if we get the rally. They will be positioned well if the rally starts and the normal Bear Market squeeze will take place first. They will run it up enough to get the chart slaves all back on buy signals again before they pull the plug for the next leg down.
It will be a lower low in my opinion. So, just trade it if you buy it!

The smart money doesn’t always get it correct and we could head much lower, but you asked the question and that is my opinion. I’m sure many will disagree with it, but that is what makes the market. So, we shall see.

Good trading to you – this market is not for investors anymore. Come back in 2012 or so!

I'm adding long positions here and will be buying some using TSP money. I NEVER make 100% moves anymore, so I'll probably make two 25% moves. It all depends what happens tomorrow. Big rally or Big sell-off tomorrow - What say you?? I'm not chasing if we rally....I have know idea how the crooks and the operators will play it tomorrow.
Click to expand...
 
crws said:
Alright, amid the doom & gloom, I'm getting my suit ready for a dive.
The I Fund & BP were up strong the end of the day, with the Euro gaining as well.
I'm beginning to think, again, that next week will be much brighter.
For all the propaganda of this, I can relate.

http://bp.concerts.com/gom/kwellsreliefwells062710.htm

Now to decide how to allocate an ST Bull IFT-

S Fund- High probability of the most snap back, biggest beneficiary of any small business $, but prone to wild dynamics.

C Fund- Blue chips with cash reserves. Maybe not the best chance of strong forward outlook, but less cyclical.

I Fund- Coupled with BP and the EU stimulus & stability plan, along with record gold prices & the rush to US Treasuries, this could be the divergence of equities low and gold high that sets up a funding crossover.

-thoughts?
Click to expand...

crws,

You are not the only one thinking the stock market might improve soon. Having the same opinion as Doug Kass will make you money in the long run. He is better at picking bottoms then tops it looks like, but it's a bottom we are looking for now... I'll be buying the C fund myself and not because I think it will have the best return. It's a risk management thing for me.

Robo

By Matt Phillips
The good folks over at Clusterstock point out that Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners — perhaps best known for calling the bottom of the market back in March 2009 — is Twittering that markets may be bottoming here: ” i beleive today will mark a classic bottom $$” sayeth the Tweet, which went out about an hour ago. (Far be it for us to criticize anybody’s spelling.)

As we mentioned above, Kass — best known as a short seller, until he turned bullish — has gotten plenty of mileage out of his correct call that the market would bottom way back in early March 2009. It was a gutsy read and he deserves full credit for getting it right.


http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/201...s-another-bottom-he-missed-the-top-but-still/
 
crws said:
I'm suspicious, really.
I think that most individual investors are suspicious as well, and I think that algos have alot to do with it.
.
Click to expand...

You should be suspicious and stay that way, and the media is almost always WRONG... We are playing in the biggest Casino in the world with tricksters and computers trying to get your money. Always wait for extremes to trade and your chances of success are much higher.

Is this a true extreme? No, but we have increased are odds considerably; Less trading is better with TSP money. We are getting closer to a tradeable bounce in my opinion, but I have been wrong many times before. That is where my risk management comes in. How much money will I risk this trade? That is for each of us to decide as traders and investors. Again, this is not a market for investors that buy and hold or for folks that use charts only. Everyone is looking at the same charts and the crooks know it. They play it well and will continue to do so.
I don't use anything I read or hear in the media to make trades; it's based on other factors and I’m not a chart slave. However, I follow them close thru services so I know what the majority of the herd is doing trading. Atilla sums it up pretty good below and I agree with him, but don’t always trade with him.

Take Care and good luck on your move.....

Robo

In the next few days, you will witness an interesting event.

As you know 50DMA is about to cross over 200DMA on SPX and many simpletons will turn bearish after SPX dropped over 200 points, just because of this.

Not to mention many systems like IBD had been giving buy signals right at the swing tops since mid April, just to invalidate them near the bottom of the moves. You know each sucker rally I talked about came on very strong breath and suckered them at the highs. IBD just switched to sell mode yesterday again.

I am not trying to bash any system or group but just trying to show you what you are really facing here. The toughest bear market you have never seen before. Extreme deception is the most important characteristic of this bear market which will eventually wipe out most.

Meanwhile I am getting ready to go long for a swing trade, right about this cross over happens.



Again, I am not fading this or that group of people, or cross over crowd or IBD crowd. I am doing exactly what I told you for months.

Sell the up days that come on strong breath, sell when crowd turns confident and bullish. Cover when they capitulate and turn confidently bearish. In doing so, always observe xTrends rules. xTrends gives the price pivots for all these conditions.

We shall see...


http://www.xtrenders.com/
 
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