Cowboys Account Account Talk

[cowboy]

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I have went 100% C as of 10:20 AM this morning. These markets may appear to be going up but the TSP is closed tomorrow and many of the markets will be closed also. So I look for this to be weak again next week. Also as Tom stated the past history on the last few days of March also are not productive. Just an update on what I have done in the past week. If I was to sell my shares of S right now at the current market price as of this time.

I have gained the following shares in my account from last weeks value:

F Fund - 13 shares

C Fund + 60

S Fund + 20

I Fund + 85

Now someone in G fund wouldhave gained more than this at the moment. But he has to make a decision just like I have done if he wants to play. It is not the day to day trading most watch that is important. It is knowing what to do when your dealt Lemonades and that is to make lemonade. You are always going to make mistakes and the long term is your goal so have a plan. What is your goal at the end of the year in your TSP. Some seem to have high goals and others somewhat low but the main thing is to keep your goal reachable if possible. I am throwing this out there so you know there is more to this than just value of your account.

I am going to be on vacation for Easter but I will possibly monitor TSP and the market and will answer any questions if anyone has any.

 

[cowboy]

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Cowboy will be 100% S at the beginning of Tuesday morning 3/29/05. The market seems to be trending down still but hopefully it will stabilize shortly. I am just going to let the market do what it wants and lope along with it.

 

[tsptalk]

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cowboy wrote:

I am just going to let the market do what it wants...

If we can only figure out how to change that...

 

[nnuut]

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Learn how to cheat! Yeah that's the ticket.:^

 

[cowboy]

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Just going to go I as I can recover about half of my shares I lost yesterday and purchase I fund hoping that we see a bounce finally on the I fund. Good luck to everyone.

 

[Show-me]

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"Great minds think alike" or is that the thundering sound of us lemmings heading for the cliff. lol:l Time will tell. Good luck to ya Cowboy!

 

[cowboy]

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Looks like I will possibly gain all of my shares back on this move but now I have to hope that I fund makes a rebound! If not we could be hung out to dry.If this market doesn't sell off today we may have seena bottum but it could be what they call smart money getting caught in the ringer and being washed out.Smart money,dumb money, who cares just make a move up. :^

 

[cowboy]

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I will be 100% C tomorrow morning and as of COB today. The I fund followed the US markets but I think it is short lived yet and the US markets to me will make some type of move tomorrow. The question is which way up or down? :^

 

[cowboy]

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If the market goes down today I want to be in the S fund for Monday. If the markets go up then I think the market will still move up on Monday. It may just play the same old game with us it has the last 4 weeks, so I am playing the same game and won't change strategy and just keep trading hoping to stay ahead of it.

 

[cowboy]

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I am thinking we may see a nice gain today in the S and the next day or two the I fund may move up while the US funds take a breather. If not I just made another mistake which happens every other day with me. I bet everyone was wondering what happened as I have held on to S for several days. Good luck everyone and hope your dollars are all green!

 

[cowboy]

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Hello everyone! The Cowboy is on a bull!!!!! I am selling my I fund on the COB today and buying S. Now if you look at the history of the US markets the last month or more they have been down just about every Monday. So if you want to be the clown and follow Cowboy out into the arena, you do it at your own risk and if he gores you in the process of saving the cowboy to play another day then you have made ultimate sacrifice and pay day may be at your window. Good luck with all the economics and the price of oil and the influencers as if they can sway you with all the worry then I know which way the bull will turn. :^

 

[cowboy]

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Cowboy was out of the chute early and spurred the bull for somethin awsome! He spurred the bull for all he was worth and capitalized by repurchasing S and awsome move if the bull continues up. I know many took today hard and forgive me if your miffed but I promised WW I would try to make her feel better and I don't want to be on her un-kool list. Bummmer!! I am not a poet but a man named Buddy Quinn is and he wrote poem and it is called a Cowboy's Prayer. I spoofed it some to fit our TSP funds and hope you enjoy it!

Cowboy's Prayer

May your Stocks never stumble,

Your spursnever rust,

Yourgutsnever grumble,

And your S fund never bust.

May your I fund never pinch,

Your C fund never fail,

May you eat lots of beans,

And stay out of Jail.

Cowboy rides the I fund to a +.75 and purchases the S fund at -1.05 for a 1.80 turn around a record I do believe. Now if the market god is as favorable MondayI won't know what to do.

 

[Guest]

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Spring is in the air!!

 

[cowboy]

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Darn the I fund is up to it's old tricks again thought it went up when I looked! There was a big argument with the judges down on the arena when cowboy rode and the out come was the I down .01. Lost .75 on the ride so only gain what S gave up!

 

[pyriel]

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cowboy wrote:

Darn the I fund is up to it's old tricks again thought it went up when I looked! There was a big argument with the judges down on the arena when cowboy rode and the out come was the I down .01. Lost .75 on the ride so only gain what S gave up!

Don't worry about it. You are doing much better than most of us. Just when I think I will be able to get out of the - side i end up getting slammed. Oh well... 9 more months to get out of the -.

 

[cowboy]

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Pyriel, I have not been doing all that bad considering the month of March. I was out the first half of January so I saved big then. I know I am ahead of the buy and holder and liked the Fundsurfer post showing where that is at. I have for some time been stating that I was thinking of going to an all stock holdem type strategy and not worry about going into G. I think it works okay, but if you sell at the top of the trend your better off waiting for a bottum. So I still might go G or Fbut it will be more to the higher part of the trend. I have traded going to G and F stepping out but usually the market does the opposite or you miss getting back in on time. Result is your in when you shouldn't be and out when you should. I have missed some nice gains by moving too quickly and I am learning patience by risking. I really don't like jumping in and out of funds but when trending down this seems to be a very good defensive move. On and up market trend I think it works against me and I have to be more patient. My ideal move would be for S to bounce on Monday. I do believe this will happen as the indicator I use is stating that it will gain on the I fund. You did notice I thought I was up higher on Friday but the sneaky sidewinder went even on me. This could mean I fund up Monday also. This would confirm Tom's thoughts that the market is moving up some. The scary part is the low volumn so they both could just decline. The C fund if you use it right can be valuable and if caught in a down trend sometimes tends not to move down as fast as the S fund and if played right will give you gain in shares. This is dangerous also as I have gotten caught zigging when I should of been zagging but I have notice that if I wait the market will put me right back in it.

 

[cowboy]

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I thought I better answer on what my system is as I was asked this in another thread. Basically I just follow the charts on the funds and make decisions on fluctuations of the funds and what I think the funds are trying to tell me. I also use a lot of what Tom uses such as volumn and what he says on bulls vs Bears stuff. The Cowboy may just drift out to no one hasever gone. I am trying to take these funds to what I consider a whole different level and not worry about the daily fluctuation and the economic talk and concentrate my mind where my money is and manage it the best I can till I retire. I plan to stay stocks 100% unless the support is broken and then I may move out and conserve. The plan is going to be two fold and the idea will be this:

1- Try to increase $$$ in an up market.

2 - Gain shares in a down market.

I actually had an increase in my TSP the first quarter which I don't consider too bad considering there was two down months in it. I am going away from any safetyfunds unless support is broken and then I may watch but otherwise I am going to look the devil in the eye. Right now there is a panic and we will see the beginning I believe of the sell off. Too bad were not intellegent enough to read the bottumperfectly. If we were perfectly able to do this we would not be individuals and therefor we would have no identity. I personally feel an identity is more important than being perfect or rich. The thing about watching the market is that you see what is happening while other go oblivious to what is happening to their money, such as the buy and hold person or the strictly G fund person. I know many thatdon't follow thereretirements and do just fine and are happy. Therefor I should be able to manage my money more effectively hopefully by taking some sort of action. I know I will make many mistakes in this task but as long as I can gain more than my old standard of buy and hold that I had. I feel I am gaining in my management. So if you plan on riding with this Cowboy pull out the old bed role and get a good nights sleep and don't worry about the minor fluctuations that maybe tomorrow will cure. For every action there is a reaction and I hope to be on the positive side if at all possible.

 

[cowboy]

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There is a rumor that after being dumped hard in 2 seconds (days as CSI calls it) that Cowboy has come out of unconsiousness and is wondering back to the chute. Stunned and dazed apparently someone flashed some green to see if he would get back on the rank bull called "Inflation Talk". The crowd is setting stunned in disbelief will he ride today or rest only the market will tell.

 

[The_Technician]

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Take a breather Cowboy.....you tried your best....now give it some time and get some rest!!!:^

 

[cowboy]

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Cowboy has dusted off his hat and is walking pretty bowl legged to the trailer. LOL!! There is no moves except if you want out and go G or F than you have to hope it does not go green on Monday which may cost you shares. Iam going to hold still as I can until the bears awful stare strays. You win some and lose some, but you have to believe in the long term to come out on top.There is definately some fear out there as the Bear takes up main street. Lets hope the Cowboy can shake out the cobwebs and goes hunting on Monday!