Corn and Ethanol.

[Bullitt]

Supply and demand will take care of the problem. I'm not saying ethanol is the answer, but farmers will begin to sell into the strength. These guys aren't dumb that run giant farms. Take a look at what has happened to cocoa prices since that hedge fund manager who tried to corner the cocoa market. Of course, he'll never tell you he lost money but he most likely will.

In the end, high corn and wheat prices are good for the USA because it is the only industry we have now that housing and autos are in secular bear markets.

 

[Birchtree]

The better way - power by Obama wind. He looked sullen yesterday but the lies were still coming.

 

[KevinD]

Just say no to food-to-fuel. There has to be a better way.

 

[Buster]

Well..There goes up the Price of Ethanoil..

Straight gasoline will be cheaper..

 

[SkyPilot]

My farmer friends tell me that their ConAgra rep tells them that the fires and drought in eastern Europe will be driving corn futures for some time to come. Exports will be huge, and will drive up many farm commodity prices.

 

[James48843]

And I just got this from one of my ethanol publcation sources:

Record Corn Crop….Record Speculation: Last Friday, corn futures traders had their most active day in 133 years. According to Drover’s, a record 556,034 corn futures contracts (the equivalent of 2.8 billion bushels of corn!) changed hands last Friday, marking the single busiest day in the corn markets since the Chicago Board of Trade began trading grain in 1877. The recent flurry of activity in corn market is undoubtedly being driven by the resurgence of speculators. Hedge and index funds are descending on the corn market in numbers not seen since the spectacular commodities bubble of 2008. Read the full blog post here.

Intereting. Most speculation since trading began in 1877.

I smell a bubble ...

 

[crws]

I just finished planting my winter corn crop in my small garden - I'll be eating mine.

Perhaps you'll start a "Corn and Methane" thread?

 

[Birchtree]

I just finished planting my winter corn crop in my small garden - I'll be eating mine.

 

[WorkFE]

FYSA:

I live in an area that is mostly soy bean and alpha but this year it is mostly corn. In 10 years I've never seen this much corn grown.
In my opinion your assesment is spot on.
Thanks

 

[crws]

I just wanted to make this note:​

The price of corn had jumped over 25% just since June. In fact, there are now, in the last month or so, a reapearance of the massive number of speculators in corn futures. In fact, the most since back in July of 2008, when speculation in corn futures and other commodities sent prices through the roof.​

Not normal market forces, but pure speculation. The result back in July-Sept 2008 was a doubling of prices, then a bursting bubble, and that led, of course, in the fall of 2008, to the stock market debable we all rememer.​

Well, corn prices are doing it again. It's not normal market demand, for the actual use of corn. It's market speculators who are driving up prices.​

Corn this morning passed $4.87 a bushel, up from the $3.50-> $3.80 which was a normal range price two months ago.

Here is the chart:

​

View attachment 9993​

My take- BEWARE of rampent market speculation. In the not -too-distant future, my personal opinion is that this has to correct itself and fall. This year's corn forecast crop producion is for an all-time record harvest, and yeilds to be second or third highest ever on record. This is an UN-NATURAL price bubble in corn.​

That's my 2cents for today.​

Oil traders switch hitting perhaps?

 

[James48843]

I just wanted to make this note:​

The price of corn had jumped over 25% just since June. In fact, there are now, in the last month or so, a reapearance of the massive number of speculators in corn futures. In fact, the most since back in July of 2008, when speculation in corn futures and other commodities sent prices through the roof.​

Not normal market forces, but pure speculation. The result back in July-Sept 2008 was a doubling of prices, then a bursting bubble, and that led, of course, in the fall of 2008, to the stock market debable we all rememer.​

Well, corn prices are doing it again. It's not normal market demand, for the actual use of corn. It's market speculators who are driving up prices.​

Corn this morning passed $4.87 a bushel, up from the $3.50-> $3.80 which was a normal range price two months ago.

Here is the chart:

​

View attachment 9993​

My take- BEWARE of rampent market speculation. In the not -too-distant future, my personal opinion is that this has to correct itself and fall. This year's corn forecast crop producion is for an all-time record harvest, and yeilds to be second or third highest ever on record. This is an UN-NATURAL price bubble in corn.​

That's my 2cents for today.​

 

[WorkFE]

A gentlemen I know (I use that term loosely) dropped off several bushels of plums yesterday. They can't get enough of my plum wine, I only make it once a year.

 

[alevin]

and plums, cinnamon, mineral, tobacco.....:toung:

 

[nnuut]

Fair enough, however you can absolutely make a competitive wine with table variety grapes.
The flavor is different not because of what is inside the grape but much of the flavor and tannins and virtually all of the color comes from the skin. Thick-skinned grapes are desirable because they produce robust, flavorful, tannic and long-lived wines but tough to chew.
Thin skinned grapes are more desireable for eating but for the home wine maker not less desireable for making wines.
From those whom I brew on occasion with. To be fair though, we are not a soffisticated lot.:nuts:

Don't forget about the Oak Barrels, black berries, cherries.:laugh:

 

[WorkFE]

Fair enough, however you can absolutely make a competitive wine with table variety grapes.
The flavor is different not because of what is inside the grape but much of the flavor and tannins and virtually all of the color comes from the skin. Thick-skinned grapes are desirable because they produce robust, flavorful, tannic and long-lived wines but tough to chew.
Thin skinned grapes are more desireable for eating but for the home wine maker not less desireable for making wines.
From those whom I brew on occasion with. To be fair though, we are not a soffisticated lot.:nuts:

 

[crws]

Agreed. I have drank some wine from all over the world and even if Chile did convert to wine grapes, they will never get the market share. The few Chilean wines I have sampled are grassy is taste with no complexity. The soil and climate just can't compete with France/Germany or the west coast of the USA. Australia has a few good regions as well.

Remember the California raisin commercials? How is it good that we get our table grapes from 4000 miles away. Just who is benefiting on our side? Are we worried that Chile will pose a sercurity risk if we don't prop up their economy by buying their grapes?

Go local, or as local as you can get.

Food, INC
They are probably round-up resistant grapes by monsanto...

I need to do something constructive today to lighten my mood.
This progression seems to be suffering the same fate as any other- hardcore resistance to change and adaptation. Is this the reason societies fail?

 

[malyla]

:cheesy: maybe FE, maybe. I know that was a joke, but on the serious side, are you a wine drinker? If so, you'd know wine grapes are not table (eating) grapes and vice-versa. would take years for them to convert productive table grape vinyards to equally productive wine grape vinyards-major cap investment with lag time on the returns on capital.

there's this little thing about soil and climate too-I don't know enough about table-grape production to know but the table-grape lands may not be suitable for wine grapes. All I know is-I live in wine-grape country myself and we don't grow table-grapes around here.


ok, enough stealing the ethanol-corn thread for grapes and wine and electricity for the day.

Agreed. I have drank some wine from all over the world and even if Chile did convert to wine grapes, they will never get the market share. The few Chilean wines I have sampled are grassy is taste with no complexity. The soil and climate just can't compete with France/Germany or the west coast of the USA. Australia has a few good regions as well.

Remember the California raisin commercials? How is it good that we get our table grapes from 4000 miles away. Just who is benefiting on our side? Are we worried that Chile will pose a sercurity risk if we don't prop up their economy by buying their grapes?

Go local, or as local as you can get.

 

[alevin]

They need to drink more wine.

:cheesy: maybe FE, maybe. I know that was a joke, but on the serious side, are you a wine drinker? If so, you'd know wine grapes are not table (eating) grapes and vice-versa. would take years for them to convert productive table grape vinyards to equally productive wine grape vinyards-major cap investment with lag time on the returns on capital.

there's this little thing about soil and climate too-I don't know enough about table-grape production to know but the table-grape lands may not be suitable for wine grapes. All I know is-I live in wine-grape country myself and we don't grow table-grapes around here.


ok, enough stealing the ethanol-corn thread for grapes and wine and electricity for the day.

 

[WorkFE]

Perhaps Chile cannot find a better buyer closer to them? hmm.

They need to drink more wine.

 

[alevin]

Agreed! reduce the supply chain and associated transport energy costs to extent we can. That's what killed Napoleon's expansion of his empire-the supply chain was too long. Produce locally for local consumption, manufacture locally from local resources, only trade the surplus as far away as we need to to find a viable buyer. Perhaps Chile cannot find a better buyer closer to them? hmm.

some regions will produce products more efficiently than others. the northwest will never be a producer of cotton. Ah, but we have wheat to trade! could we produce other things? well yes, maybe, it depends. does it need water? how much? does it require electricity? how much? can the existing grid handle the extra electricity required?

where does the electricity come from? what's the fuel source for electrical production? natural gas? hydro? coal? which of those are available locally. How far away is the source?

Hey, I read about a new experiment a couple regional utilities are starting up. It's called using smart grid to store excess electrical production from intermittent wind power-in household water heaters-it turns them off so they are not drawing energy during the low-demand periods. Water in the water heaters don't lose that much heat that rapidly even if turned off for a few hours. Homeowners can do manual overrides at any time, if they want to use their hot water during off hours. or something like that.

Finally a development with "smart grid" I could buy into. I haven't liked the idea of smart grid managing my household thermostats for me. :suspicious: