Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

Went in today for a 1 day bounce on Friday. I suspect a better than expected employment report, with crazy seasonal adjustments. Looking to scalp a percent or so then back out.

 

[Birchtree]

Easter isn't until April 4th this year - your early.

 

[Steadygain]

Went in today for a 1 day bounce on Friday. I suspect a better than expected employment report, with crazy seasonal adjustments. Looking to scalp a percent or so then back out.

Well the way I see it is: You are King of the Bunkers

I'm thrilled to see you coming out for some fresh air


I also totally understand the need to make 'baby steps' when you've been held back for so long.

Anyway -- I'm thrilled to see you're back in the game and I'm getting close to making some moves as well.

WELCOME BACK !!

 

[Corepuncher]

While it would have been nice to gain 50+%, my balance is currently much higher than it was even at S&P 1576. You win some, you lose some, but the way I figure it, I definitely won and am happy about it.

 

[nnuut]

Hey CP, Making money is making money!! View attachment 7897

 

[JTH]

CP I wish you'd drop in more often, I miss your wit!!!

 

[KevinD]

I tried to draw him out on his birthday. I even posted links to his site.

 

[Steadygain]

CP,
There is no sign of the Markets dropping the bottom today !


I seriously hope the day ends very well.


I personally believe the bottom will drop soon - and that is wholly my independent judgement and totally based on how I see the Markets moving.

I see the more recent activity as more of a huge shovel scooping up the dirt (and that is the basis for the recent rise). I believe it is simply moving dirt at this point and the bottom will fall out.

The 'crane' operating the Market Dirt has been on an 'Uphill Climb' and despite some 'Dips' -- the Trend UP will continue.

Is that in a 'nutshell' how you see things ???

 

[FAB1]

The current sideways movement with gradual uptrend works for me.

AND I expect we will see a buy-off sometime in Jan. but still retain and overall postive for the month and the Bull will continue to trudge up-hill.

However, your market dirt/shovel/crane analogy totally escapes me
can you break that down in layman's language?

 

[felixthecat]

I'm out. I'm feeling real good about the market and that was the best gut indicator I have had of late to bail. Markets end in the red today and see next week sliding some more. No rush to lose any money. Take care and see you next week.

 

[grandma]

...... Take care and see you next week.

Okay - & Happy Birthday in the meantime (Sunday).

 

[Steadygain]

I'm out.

Markets end in the red today and see next week sliding some more.

No rush to lose any money. Take care and see you next week.

Amen Brother !!! And that's how the Game is played !

Have a wonderful birthday !!

I won't do the MLK 'I had a dream' with you :laugh:

 

[FAB1]

I'm out. I'm feeling real good about the market and that was the best gut indicator I have had of late to bail. Markets end in the red today and see next week sliding some more. No rush to lose any money. Take care and see you next week.

My gut feeling is also good, but I am staying IN! see ya!

 

[Corepuncher]

As long as the FED can keep issuing debt and there are buyers, AND interest rates stay put, AND the dollar does not either crash down or up, then I doubt there will be any seismic shift anytime soon. I could see a top and a slow grind down with time as jobs keep getting lost and earnings dwindle...but that is nothing to be afraid of as you can get out when it first shows. Again...watch out for big moves in the dollar, or 10 and 30 year rates (like mortgages going back above 6%). I think we are close to this happening. At some point, the FED's credit card will be shut off, and then they can no longer funnel money into the market by backdoor methods...or fund the damn government for that matter! Then bonds will likely crash, the yield curve will flatten substantially, and banks will become nationalized (eventually) due to continued foreclosures and a dead/saturated housing market. It's a matter of when, not if, IMO.

 

[FAB1]

at which poiint we are ALL screwed.

 

[Silverbird]

Not soon, Japan and China are stamping on the $ of late.

 

[Steadygain]

As long as the FED can keep issuing debt and there are buyers, AND interest rates stay put, AND the dollar does not either crash down or up, then I doubt there will be any seismic shift anytime soon.

And FOLKS -- that's the way it is.

Now if we can get 350z and 12% back -- we'd really be on a roll.

Then everyone would immediately see what kittens guys like me and most of us are.

Of course we still have Coolhand and Birch .....


But anyway -- it's good we're getting back to normal.

Have a great weekend everyone !!

 

[Corepuncher]

Thanks for the kind words, Steady. I basically gave up totally after my personal account experiment blew up in my face with options. I became leveraged with margin, and it SUNK ME! I "only" gained 14% in 2009, after losing 9% in 2008 and gaining 5% in 2007.

As for Birch...he is bullish. Maybe we can erect a statue of a bull in his honor and let the real Birchtree go on vacation :cheesy:

Look...something HAS to, and WILL give here, eventually. Given how much money has gone "poof" through this whole ordeal, I do not believe there is enough actual money to get us back to the old highs. There IS some effect from the FED's printing, but I do not think it can go on for long. Like I said earlier, something will give...the dollar will either crater, long bonds will crash with rocketing rates, or oil will be 200 a barrel.

The FED is going to use it's seemingly unlimited credit card to try to borrow us our of this mess, futily trying to prop up an unsustainable growth trajectory built on cheap money that is not coming back. It will fail, and when it does, we will be worse off compared to what would have happened if we had simply let the big banks fail, taken the big hit on assets instead of papering over them, and gone on with life.

 

[Corepuncher]

I have a tentive target of 1200-1220, based on "old fashioned" tech analysis. The trend is your friend, no matter which direction.

We have a 61.8% retracement from the highs to the lows. I just don't see us getting to the 78.6% which is 1381. Earnings will NOT support those valuations. Won't even support 1220, but we'll probably get there on "hope" and "speculation" before Q1 comes in like a steaming turd. Not sure Q4 '09 will be very good either. If earnings start coming in bad, may be time to get out. Futures up already this morning.

 

[Steadygain]

before Q1 comes in like a steaming turd.

Bridgewaterbetty,
Good morning my dear friend. This is 'guy talk' from someone who has a very thorough grounding in 'technical analysis' and likes to bring terms to levels ~~ even I can understand.

He is saying the same thing I have shared -- and that is we can expect the First Quarter to give us a 'wonderful correction'.

Now Betty, I know you're amazed I'd say 'Wonderful Correction' but for those of us expecting it -- it is wonderful because we will stay in G Fund or maybe shift to F Fund. But the bottom line is: At times it's just as wonderful being in safety (or gaining) when the Markets are plunging down the drain. :nuts:

So you have a wonderful day Betty --- and whenever I see 'Terms' like this -- I'll try to make sure you see them for the Goldmine they represent.