Corepuncher's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Do you see that consolidation line way over to the right on his graph - it's the first time that has happened in two years. That was a two month duration and we are now headed for a significant move in the direction of the trend breakout. The AAII bullish sentiment is back in the neutral zone at 41%. The bulls are on the loose.

 

[Corepuncher]

Do you see that consolidation line way over to the right on his graph - it's the first time that has happened in two years. That was a two month duration and we are now headed for a significant move in the direction of the trend breakout. The AAII bullish sentiment is back in the neutral zone at 41%. The bulls are on the loose.

One thing's for sure...the party continues until it doesn't.

I don't see a major crash unless there is a major disruption in long rates or currencies...but those are quite possible. The FED is going to stop it's buying of BS, I mean MBS. It is running out of bond buyers with time, and is basically having to monetize it's own debt. That game simply cannot continue forever. Other than those items, watch for a general grinding downtrend to develop due to disappointing earnings and not improving employment...after we top, of course. This year. Be on your guard. There will be signs when the cracks start to appear in the dam.

 

[FAB1]

Im in until the dam breaks & like you said we will see the cracks beforehand.

No reason then not to stay -

BTW: nice avatar change you got CP.

 

[Corepuncher]

Im in until the dam breaks & like you said we will see the cracks beforehand.

No reason then not to stay -

BTW: nice avatar change you got CP.

Thanks. It's my original one.

 

[Bullitt]

A Bear has awoken from his 9 month hibernation. Could a top be near?

 

[Corepuncher]

A Bear has awoken from his 9 month hibernation. Could a top be near?

I think so!

 

[Birchtree]

Go tell it on the mountain.

 

[Corepuncher]

Warning: This might make you cry.

Since we've had such a rip-snortin rally as of late, lets figure out where you stand, minus contributions, since the closing high of 1565 on 10/9/07.

The S&P, from 10/9/07 to 1/11/10 (latest high of 1147) is down a whopping 26.7%.

First, log into TSP, go to account balance. On the bottom you can enter a different date. Record your balances on 10/9/07 and 1/11/10.

Now, add up your contributions to TSP for the last FIVE PPDs in 2007, all of 2008 and 2009. For 2008 and 2009 it's easy, just look at your last pay stub. For 2007, just add the last 5. 2010 won't have any yet as of 1/11/10.

Now, add your 5% government matching. For me it was easy...since I contribute 10%, I just added up my total and multiplied it by 1.5. Don't forget to add up any TSP loan repayments you have outstanding...as they were paid back into your account and count.

Now, add your contribution total to your 10/9/07 balance for your "if I got out at the top" balance. Compare to your balance as of 1/11/10. (NOTE: this is not exact, as it does not take into account the growth of you contributions). BUT...if we all do it the same way, the results should be comparable.

I bet there are just a handful of lucky souls who are positive. I am a bit disappointed in my number. I am -11 % since the market top. That is still a good chunk better than the buy and holder...and consider that I have been sitting in G since S&P 780! You can't win em all...but if you can beat the market, then you're doing well.

 

[Steadygain]

Warning: This might make you cry.

Since the closing high of 1565 on 10/9/07 ~ The S&P is down a whopping 26.7%.

I bet there are just a handful of lucky souls who are positive.

Thanks man ~~ I cried in 'delight'


See that's the thrill of being a Professional Player
--- instead of the BS B&Her


Luck ?? I beg your pardon ..... I never promised you a rose garden
..along with the sunshine...... there's got to be a little rain sometime


Anyway - I have only gained and never lost once this whole year; but screw this stuff -- I need some 'action' :nuts::toung:


Oh yeah --- violation of MB Rule 1427-b -- all warnings must be in Bold RED

 

[kar_crazy]

Warning: This might make you cry.

Since we've had such a rip-snortin rally as of late, lets figure out where you stand, minus contributions, since the closing high of 1565 on 10/9/07.

The S&P, from 10/9/07 to 1/11/10 (latest high of 1147) is down a whopping 26.7%.

First, log into TSP, go to account balance. On the bottom you can enter a different date. Record your balances on 10/9/07 and 1/11/10.

Now, add up your contributions to TSP for the last FIVE PPDs in 2007, all of 2008 and 2009. For 2008 and 2009 it's easy, just look at your last pay stub. For 2007, just add the last 5. 2010 won't have any yet as of 1/11/10.

Now, add your 5% government matching. For me it was easy...since I contribute 10%, I just added up my total and multiplied it by 1.5. Don't forget to add up any TSP loan repayments you have outstanding...as they were paid back into your account and count.

Now, add your contribution total to your 10/9/07 balance for your "if I got out at the top" balance. Compare to your balance as of 1/11/10. (NOTE: this is not exact, as it does not take into account the growth of you contributions). BUT...if we all do it the same way, the results should be comparable.

I bet there are just a handful of lucky souls who are positive. I am a bit disappointed in my number. I am -11 % since the market top. That is still a good chunk better than the buy and holder...and consider that I have been sitting in G since S&P 780! You can't win em all...but if you can beat the market, then you're doing well.

man my account is so ugly i dont even want to look at all of the losses i know by balance i am still along way from that pot of gold

 

[Steadygain]

man my account is so ugly i dont even want to look at all of the losses i know by balance i am still along way from that pot of gold

You can't be too bad KC -- the year just started !!



BTW -- This post really made my day

I noticed CP -- changed the 'warning' to RED :laugh::nuts:



Tell ya what KC --- remind me of this at the end of the year and I'll see if I can get them to give you an extra % from me.

 

[kar_crazy]

You can't be too bad KC -- the year just started !!



BTW -- This post really made my day

I noticed CP -- changed the 'warning' to RED :laugh::nuts:



Tell ya what KC --- remind me of this at the end of the year and I'll see if I can get them to give you an extra % from me.

all in the game of learning,and i have a whole lot to learn

 

[Corepuncher]

Took 50% off the table COB today. So far a fairly flat day, although Dec retail sales were lower than Nov (http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm) when they were expected to be up. Intel reports after the bell and feel this may spark a small rally towards 1150 into the close. If Intel kicks ass and the market rallies further tomorrow, well I may sell some more.

I do not like this low VIX. It shows people are letting their guards down. Look at the way we are quietly drifting upwards...no real conviction on volume. So when a correction does come, I think it will surely come HARD and FAST. 1090 would be a good target, initially. Could get there in 2-3 days in a good downdraft (not the next 2-3 days...but that is how quickly it could fall).

Here's one for you Steady...Castles Made of Sand comes to mind when I look at the last few months of this rally.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks Corepuncher

I'm honored you thought of me ~~ unfortunately my computer here doesn't bring up some things --- so it's just blank

But I appreciate it.


Anyway -- I'm with ya man -- in that I'm going in for a quick grab and I won't hestitate to BAIL to stop losses.

No one knows what the hell is going to happen ...VIX ... and everything else. Sometimes I go in mainly because I'm bored of being out but so far I think it will pay off.

Well GL

 

[Corepuncher]

lol...JPM does not surprise me. Volume is much higher today than the previous few days...which makes me think this day will end badly. I can always hope for a stick save at the close by the PPT. At least I went 50% G yesterday. Oh well. Looks like I'm giving it all back as of today. That's what I get for trying to play the market after being out for months on end Perhaps my coming in WAS a sign of the top. Monday will be telling.

 

[Corepuncher]

When we were up hard yesterday I locked in some profits. I did so because my goal of locking in 1% of gains was about reached, and I still felt we were, at the very least, due for a correction, if not a new grinding downtrend. Man am I glad I got out...I guess even a blind chicken can find a kernal of corn sometimes. What is happening today appears fundamental...i.e...we're probably not going to bounce right back up off this...but instead, get more volatile and test 1090, IMO.

 

[poolman]

When we were up hard yesterday I locked in some profits. I did so because my goal of locking in 1% of gains was about reached, and I still felt we were, at the very least, due for a correction, if not a new grinding downtrend. Man am I glad I got out...I guess even a blind chicken can find a kernal of corn sometimes. What is happening today appears fundamental...i.e...we're probably not going to bounce right back up off this...but instead, get more volatile and test 1090, IMO.

Good Job Corepuncher !

 

[shitepoke]

I too locked in some profits (shootin' for 2% per/mo). Thanks to Uptrend (followed him out/QB system). Have no problem waitin' this thing out in the G-arage...

 

[CrabClaw]

Man am I glad I got out...I guess even a blind chicken can find a kernal of corn sometimes. What is happening today appears fundamental...i.e...we're probably not going to bounce right back up off this...but instead, get more volatile and test 1090, IMO.

I did the same thing yesterday and I am also glad I did but I am out of IFT's. I'm no expert but this thing is looking toppy to me and I think something is in the wind (again...)

 

[Corepuncher]

From a technical assessment, I am looking at the confluence of several key levels. The 1110-1115 zone has three key levels within...the lower Bollinger band, the 50 day SMA, and previous support/resistance levels from back in December and early Jan. I fully expect some sort of bounce from these levels, unless Obama starts talking even louder about regulating the financials (which I hope he does). A logical target for a bounce would be the 20 SMA around 1135. If it dies there, look to break back down through 1110, in which case we could drop all the way to 1085 quite easily. The 1085-1115 zone is a strong zone of support and resistance that was forged from mid NOV to mid DEC 2009. Below that, 1020-1030 would be the next stop, which also corresponds to a nice 10% correction from 1150. I just don't see us going much above 1150, if at all, in the near term as long as the black cloud of banking regulation hangs heavy.

I believe, however, that as volatility increases again, we will be in for a nice trading range...so get your trigger fingers ready. Maybe we'll go back to the 2 weeks up, 2 weeks down pattern of late summer/early fall.

Aside from the technical aspect of the market, I remain bearish overall as my backdrop and am only looking to scalp a percent here or there, with G fund as my home base.