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Corepuncher's Account Talk
- Thread starter Corepuncher
- Start date
Corepuncher
Well-known member
That's funny! I wonder who called you that...maybe the tree?
One cell...ah Birch, it took me a second to get that one
I'm sort of itching to try to make some more money but stocks seem too dangerous at these levels. When there are gigantic "whooshes" it seems easy...it's these drawn out grinds downward that are difficult IMO. THe more I think about it, the more I think I'll try S fund for when I expect a bounce. I fund is just too dangerous right now...at least for bounces. I'd have to see the dollar crash to go into I. Otherwise, the US is the "best of the worst" as far as economies go. When risk does come on, I think a lot of foreign money will come here and make the market rocket. But timing is everything!
Tom...Thanks for my "Invest like a Shark" book...I will read it soon. I didn't know he knew Cramer.
Buffalo_Nickle
Member
hmmnh ,...
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Thanks JTH. Here is a play by play:
After the flash crash (Thur), everyone was still on edge Friday. Since Friday was down fairly good, and I knew the ECB would say "something" on Monday, I felt there was a good chance of a bounce. I thought at least 4% but ended up being > 6%. I went 50I 50C...wish I had done 100I but it was high risk. Next Monday, it bounced hard...that is when I used my last IFT to transfer my I into 100C. I did not feel the Euro bounce would be sustained...but it did just what I wanted it to do...bounce hard for 1 day. The next day (Tuesday), the I fund gave back while the C was flat...I was happy I got out of I. I thought about selling on Tuesday, but one thing I have learned is to be patient...and, I figured there might be a late day sell-off. There was, and the next day was the "real" up day, and that is when I sold.
Now, I am being patient yet again. "Everyone" says we'll break 1040 again if we get there. As long as the dollar keeps rallying relative to other currencies, I see no reason the market will turn around. I'm looking hard at 950-1000 range. Looks to be really solid tech support near 950 (going back to Jan/June 09) I suppose, I fund is the play because if stocks DO bounce again, it'll be because the Euro STOPPED dropping...and if that is the case, then I fund will benefit the most. But I'm thinking a mix of I and S may be best...S to hedge against possible decoupling of stocks and the Euro.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Look how crazy the market has been last few weeks...i count like 10 3-4% swings (1 to 3 day runs) since late April. Tradings are making (or losing) tons of money right now.
Lets call it 1065 - 1105 range last two weeks..up..down...up..down. Now, I think we break out of this range. Down. 1040 is absolutely toast. This downturn has shown that these levels don't hardly mean crap. The fact that in a supposed "bull market" we died twice in a row right at the technical 200 day ma level, is lame as hell. Sharks smell blood...they are going to push this market lower than you think possible...fllush out the weak hands. Why wouldn't they? Just imagine all those stops near 1000 on the S&P...
As long as we have the dark clouds of 1) Dropping Euro 2) Rising spreads/Sovereign rates rising (that I don't understand that well) 3) Oil gushing into the G.O.M...it's like a license to short, IMO. The only rallies we will see while this continues are short covering. Can you catch one? Yeah, but it's dangerous!
Check this out from Zerohedge:
By now everyone is aware that the G20 meeting failed to come to a consensus vis-a-vis strategic rescue approaches on the global bailout, with Tim Geithner pushing for uber-Keynesianism, while a far more prudent Europe saying enough to record deficits, and in essence potentially putting the end to the avalanche of endless bailouts and the Bernanke Uber-Put. At least such is the case until tomorrow when Europe's bureaucrats wake up and see a EURUSD at a level that rounds down to 1.10. The reason: Der Spiegel reports that Germany's high court is considering blocking Germany's participation in the European rescue package, a development which if it were to come to pass, would send the euro plunging to parity not with the dollar but with zero.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eurusd-plunging-news-european-aid-package-jeopardy
Cheers! :laugh:
Lets call it 1065 - 1105 range last two weeks..up..down...up..down. Now, I think we break out of this range. Down. 1040 is absolutely toast. This downturn has shown that these levels don't hardly mean crap. The fact that in a supposed "bull market" we died twice in a row right at the technical 200 day ma level, is lame as hell. Sharks smell blood...they are going to push this market lower than you think possible...fllush out the weak hands. Why wouldn't they? Just imagine all those stops near 1000 on the S&P...
As long as we have the dark clouds of 1) Dropping Euro 2) Rising spreads/Sovereign rates rising (that I don't understand that well) 3) Oil gushing into the G.O.M...it's like a license to short, IMO. The only rallies we will see while this continues are short covering. Can you catch one? Yeah, but it's dangerous!
Check this out from Zerohedge:
By now everyone is aware that the G20 meeting failed to come to a consensus vis-a-vis strategic rescue approaches on the global bailout, with Tim Geithner pushing for uber-Keynesianism, while a far more prudent Europe saying enough to record deficits, and in essence potentially putting the end to the avalanche of endless bailouts and the Bernanke Uber-Put. At least such is the case until tomorrow when Europe's bureaucrats wake up and see a EURUSD at a level that rounds down to 1.10. The reason: Der Spiegel reports that Germany's high court is considering blocking Germany's participation in the European rescue package, a development which if it were to come to pass, would send the euro plunging to parity not with the dollar but with zero.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eurusd-plunging-news-european-aid-package-jeopardy
Cheers! :laugh:
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Here is a basic analysis of some levels. I like to think in terms of probabilities...that is, the more types of levels you have near a similar price level, the more likely that level will work. Lets take a look at some levels:
First, the thick green lines are 10,15, and 20% corrections. The magenta lines are Fib. retirement levels. Cyan 50 day ma, orange 200 day ma. Dark blue lines are key support/resistance levels made previously.
Lets look at some of these zones where multiple levels exist...
1090-1106-
We have the 200 day sma at 1106, the psych level of 1100...a Fib. level 1090 (3/09 lows to current top), and the "10% correction" right near 1100. That is FOUR different analysis tools/methods that cross in a tight zone. Take this zone is KEY!
[1040 ish-
CNBC Fast money has target this level a few times...and it makes sense since it's the intraday lows from the past few weeks. It's also a 15% correction level. BUT...I do NOT think this level is THAT significant, but I"ll list it anyway...]
1000-1009-
We have here a Fib. level at 1009, the key psych. level of 1000, and a level fro nov/08 to aug/09 around 1108.
943-975-
This is a kinda wide range, but it's far down there and uncertainty is high. The 975 level is at the magical 20% drop defined as bear market. 943 is a very important Fib. level of 50% retrace...and 950 is near some old levels...as well as a nice round number.
So use these levels to your advantage. To be safe, try to be ahead of these levels by a few points to give yourself some room. If the market gets within a few points of one of these support levels and bounces...consider it good enough and get in.
I think we'll have to have a solid close above 1110 to resume the upward momentum...but man, it looks like an awfully tough nut to crack at this time, until the Euro stabilizes and the oil leak has stopped. Until then, I'm sticking to my 950-975 target on the S&P.
First, the thick green lines are 10,15, and 20% corrections. The magenta lines are Fib. retirement levels. Cyan 50 day ma, orange 200 day ma. Dark blue lines are key support/resistance levels made previously.
Lets look at some of these zones where multiple levels exist...
1090-1106-
We have the 200 day sma at 1106, the psych level of 1100...a Fib. level 1090 (3/09 lows to current top), and the "10% correction" right near 1100. That is FOUR different analysis tools/methods that cross in a tight zone. Take this zone is KEY!
[1040 ish-
CNBC Fast money has target this level a few times...and it makes sense since it's the intraday lows from the past few weeks. It's also a 15% correction level. BUT...I do NOT think this level is THAT significant, but I"ll list it anyway...]
1000-1009-
We have here a Fib. level at 1009, the key psych. level of 1000, and a level fro nov/08 to aug/09 around 1108.
943-975-
This is a kinda wide range, but it's far down there and uncertainty is high. The 975 level is at the magical 20% drop defined as bear market. 943 is a very important Fib. level of 50% retrace...and 950 is near some old levels...as well as a nice round number.
So use these levels to your advantage. To be safe, try to be ahead of these levels by a few points to give yourself some room. If the market gets within a few points of one of these support levels and bounces...consider it good enough and get in.
I think we'll have to have a solid close above 1110 to resume the upward momentum...but man, it looks like an awfully tough nut to crack at this time, until the Euro stabilizes and the oil leak has stopped. Until then, I'm sticking to my 950-975 target on the S&P.
Tsunami
Well-known member
CP - To followup on your post...If 1040 is broken, then 875 becomes a head and shoulders target (though kind of an ugly head and shoulders). So with 878 being the 61.8% retracement of the entire bear market rally since 3/09, that makes the 870's a good target for the first important low that will be tradable for a rally, possibly a wave 2 rally into Terry Laundry's late August peak. http://www.ttheory.com/
That's a big drop, but fits with the Elliott wave counts that we're just now entering wave 3 of 3 down. The next few weeks will be painful for anyone still long if so, then it will get more choppy with wave's 4's and 5's to finish this first drop into the abyss.
Just a guess at this point.
Edit: Or something like this from Daneric might be more realistic, with a drop to the 1009 area in just a few days first, then a tradable wave 2 bounce.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TAraXpR7h-I/AAAAAAAAFno/M6Li-RRdwRA/s1600/spx2010.png
That's a big drop, but fits with the Elliott wave counts that we're just now entering wave 3 of 3 down. The next few weeks will be painful for anyone still long if so, then it will get more choppy with wave's 4's and 5's to finish this first drop into the abyss.
Just a guess at this point.
Edit: Or something like this from Daneric might be more realistic, with a drop to the 1009 area in just a few days first, then a tradable wave 2 bounce.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TAraXpR7h-I/AAAAAAAAFno/M6Li-RRdwRA/s1600/spx2010.png
Last edited:
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I predict several TSP'ers will jump in today. I will not be among them.
The Euro is sitting right on a support line of 1.19...the S&P is on 1040s, and all is too quiet.
I'm sticking with my level of 1000-1010 as the first real buying opportunity level. I think 1040 may be the new middle range level...with a larger range of 1000-1100.
The Euro is sitting right on a support line of 1.19...the S&P is on 1040s, and all is too quiet.
I'm sticking with my level of 1000-1010 as the first real buying opportunity level. I think 1040 may be the new middle range level...with a larger range of 1000-1100.
well,
I would betcha lunch that if the market ever topped 1,110, it would go south on crushed hands that want out - perhaps down to the 1,000 level or worse, before settling to lower levels (1,030-1,050); at least until headline uncertainties are resolved, in particular:
-gushing oil
-phony jobs (no private)/unemployment
-europe asunder
All of these are real problems that aren't going away in an instant; they were just ignored as the market rode up a wall of worry. Don't think sentiment based on headline uncertainties will go away, especially when the problems underlying them don't. Call me back in late august when that gusher is capped.
Still - there is money to be made for the brave. I'm not. You first.
I would betcha lunch that if the market ever topped 1,110, it would go south on crushed hands that want out - perhaps down to the 1,000 level or worse, before settling to lower levels (1,030-1,050); at least until headline uncertainties are resolved, in particular:
-gushing oil
-phony jobs (no private)/unemployment
-europe asunder
All of these are real problems that aren't going away in an instant; they were just ignored as the market rode up a wall of worry. Don't think sentiment based on headline uncertainties will go away, especially when the problems underlying them don't. Call me back in late august when that gusher is capped.
Still - there is money to be made for the brave. I'm not. You first.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
How far will this bounce go...1100? 200 sma?
I don't how "easy" this play *appears* to be. EVERYONE was saying 1040. It's a natural area to bounce from. Then again, if the market is behavng this easy,then it SHOULD find resistance at or below 200 day ma and bounce down again. I'm not at all convinced we can get that high right off though.
There will be some bull/bear battle commencing soon. I do NOT think this is going to scare all the shorts out, but instead, offer another opportunity to put on MORE shorts.
Funny how nasdaq and small caps are leading today, when just a couple days ago they were the leaders downward b/c everyone was taking off risk. Makes me think it's flimsy fast money trade.
Anyway for those in, possibly a nice 2 day rally in place.
I don't how "easy" this play *appears* to be. EVERYONE was saying 1040. It's a natural area to bounce from. Then again, if the market is behavng this easy,then it SHOULD find resistance at or below 200 day ma and bounce down again. I'm not at all convinced we can get that high right off though.
There will be some bull/bear battle commencing soon. I do NOT think this is going to scare all the shorts out, but instead, offer another opportunity to put on MORE shorts.
Funny how nasdaq and small caps are leading today, when just a couple days ago they were the leaders downward b/c everyone was taking off risk. Makes me think it's flimsy fast money trade.
Anyway for those in, possibly a nice 2 day rally in place.
jdphx
Member
crws
Active member
possibly setting up for triple witching next week?
I have yet to learn where I can find put/call data over the last month to estimate where the month ahead outlook/protection was.
All I have seen the past week is a selling smackdown when the market starts to bump.
I read yesterday that the algos are kicking in with the trend, and I believe it was on MB here that someone was predicting a run and a selloff for profit.
The fed Beige Book is out today.
Suspicion confirmed:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-futures-lower-before-bernanke-beige-book-2010-06-09
U.S. stocks closed mostly higher Tuesday, helped by Bernanke's cautious endorsement of the economic recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 123 points higher -- helped also by the regulatory approval of a soybean from blue chip DuPont -- though the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended marginally in the red.
The Fed chief will be back in the spotlight as he testifies on economic conditions at 10 a.m. Eastern and is due to deliver a speech, as markets close, at an employment conference.
The Fed also will release its Beige Book at 2 p.m. Eastern, the closely watched report on how the central bank is seeing the economy. Traders also will begin speculating on central bank decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England over the next 24 hours.
"Risk appetite appears to have recovered somewhat, but we continue to see this as mere short-covering ahead of some crucial policy decisions in the next 24 hours," said currency analysts from UBS.
The Treasury is selling $21 billion of 10-year notes.
I have yet to learn where I can find put/call data over the last month to estimate where the month ahead outlook/protection was.
All I have seen the past week is a selling smackdown when the market starts to bump.
I read yesterday that the algos are kicking in with the trend, and I believe it was on MB here that someone was predicting a run and a selloff for profit.
The fed Beige Book is out today.
Suspicion confirmed:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-futures-lower-before-bernanke-beige-book-2010-06-09
U.S. stocks closed mostly higher Tuesday, helped by Bernanke's cautious endorsement of the economic recovery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished 123 points higher -- helped also by the regulatory approval of a soybean from blue chip DuPont -- though the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended marginally in the red.
The Fed chief will be back in the spotlight as he testifies on economic conditions at 10 a.m. Eastern and is due to deliver a speech, as markets close, at an employment conference.
The Fed also will release its Beige Book at 2 p.m. Eastern, the closely watched report on how the central bank is seeing the economy. Traders also will begin speculating on central bank decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England over the next 24 hours.
"Risk appetite appears to have recovered somewhat, but we continue to see this as mere short-covering ahead of some crucial policy decisions in the next 24 hours," said currency analysts from UBS.
The Treasury is selling $21 billion of 10-year notes.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Yeah on highwayway 9. Not much rain here....my house got 0.8" and 8 miles North of me...8.5" !!!!
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Went 100 F Tuesday, AGG chart breaking out to the upside. This is a good place to be if equities continue to sag...bang for the buck and fortification of dry powder for the next equitorious assault...target S&P 1010's.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Still waiting for an opportunity to go into stocks but I just don't see it right now. The safe have plays like bonds and gold continue to go higher today, and the only sectors that are up are "safe" ones like health care and even financials...while tech and consumer disc. are down. The F fund chart still looking good so I guess I'll remain in.
Although, for some reason I was thinking of going into stocks today for a possible bounce on Monday, but really, the chances of it being down are about equal so I'll wait. Technically where we are is no mans land. 1089-1100 is my upside restistance and 1040 the next downside target. Below that, 1000 to 1008.
Although, for some reason I was thinking of going into stocks today for a possible bounce on Monday, but really, the chances of it being down are about equal so I'll wait. Technically where we are is no mans land. 1089-1100 is my upside restistance and 1040 the next downside target. Below that, 1000 to 1008.
jdphx
Member
I wanted to make the same play... looking to get out Tues or Wed.
Alas, I missed the deadline today. So I will watch and play "what if"
right along with you Core.
Mine was more of a gut feeling, and wouldn't mind a quick in and out
opportunity. Maybe that IFT will not get used. Sure would be nice to have
a carryover huh?
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