Corepuncher's Account Talk

[sdouglas3]

I have a question. How many weeks will it take this bull to push me into my next $M. I gave myself the goal of 40 weeks - that was from 3/12/10 and week #53 off the March 9th low of '09.

The answer might be how much you keep vs. how much you make these days. Do you hedge any of your trades Birch?

Steve

 

[Birchtree]

No hedges - straight up play. I want to keep all my companies working for me.

 

[Corepuncher]

The rally out of the depths this morning should be enough to scare the shorts out of the market...with a resumption upwards. I see some possible resistance levels:


20 Day SMA 1186
50 Day SMA 1172

Even in a downtrend, if it is indeed one, after a lower BBand penetration you can usually muster a rally back to or just above the 20 day SMA. If we do do that, I would not be surprised if we "pin" 1200 in the process. It all hinges, IMO, on whether or not we break the old 1220 high. If we stop short...and have lower highs....this could fall down again.

I will be looking to lighten up somewhere above 1170. I figured on a close near that today, but Wed are historically good days for the market...I want to see if it's up.

Also, look at small caps and tech out performing today. When people buy what's been beaten down most it means they are looking for bang for the buck and therefore expect the market to go up. It's a bullish tell, in it's infancy, IMO (at least in short term). Nobody is powerful enough to take on the FEDS. Give it up...and just accept that the entire world system will some day implode down the road. But until then, I have decided to "embrace the machine"

 

[Corepuncher]

100G COB today. Gonna take my big gain and run. I don't see why there won't be another buying opportunity later on as Europe destabilizes.

I don't like how the Euro fell right back down after the spiking after the bailout. The dollar simply looks like a consolidation. Gold way high. Fear not over. I think this rally was just a knee-jerk "Oh no I may have missed a great buying opportunity." It was not a "fat finger" the other day, and I think it'll happen again.

 

[Corepuncher]

So far so good. Strategy-wise...the 2 IFT limit really sucks but then again, IF all this currency garbage somehow gets resolved before June 1, then at least we'll know it's a good time to get in. But, I don't think that is gonna happen.

Remember how the markets kept going down...down...down...in 2008/2009 UNTIL the FED backstop was fully in place? The shorts smelled blood, and were relentless. Again, I see this happening so long as Europe is in turmoil. With such a black cloud looming...pressure will be in a downward direction...ESPECIALLY after such a rip-roarin' rally.

Ah yes...this is only the beginning. There will be rallies in between but use your spidey sense. Be safe.

 

[Corepuncher]

Riding out the storm! Remember the "Volcker Rule"? It's probably what we need but the initial response will not be pretty.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ft-says-volcker-rule-given-dead-likely-pass

 

[Corepuncher]

Is everyone ready for the avalanche? I feel as though one is coming.

It seems like the Germans are making a preemptive move. This is frightening. Also, if confidence is lost in the Eurozone, then it will be a self fulfilling prophecy, long before any more bailout money is needed.

Remember...the foreign exchange and bond markets dwarf the stock market. We are so used to the equity markets being where money wants to flow into. Watch for a massive move into safety. Don't catch the falling knife, wait until the smoke clears. I would not go fully invested at least until the dollar stops rocketing up.

I do not believe this is a short term deal, but instead, an extended drama developing right before our eyes that will take a long time to get resolved.

 

[Corepuncher]

Rather interesting from CNBC:

2) Buy on Friday's close, sell on Monday's close, THEN go away? I ran into an old friend, technician Frank Gretz of Wellington Shields, in front of the NYSE this morning. We talked technicals, and in the middle of the discussion he noted that Monday's have seen an amazing outperformance this year. He's right; here are the cumulative point gains for the Dow Industrials for each trading day of the year so far:
- Monday up 1,076
- Tuesday up 12
- Wednesday up 114
- Thursday down 841
- Friday down 721

 

[nasa1974]

Rather interesting from CNBC:

2) Buy on Friday's close, sell on Monday's close, THEN go away? I ran into an old friend, technician Frank Gretz of Wellington Shields, in front of the NYSE this morning. We talked technicals, and in the middle of the discussion he noted that Monday's have seen an amazing outperformance this year. He's right; here are the cumulative point gains for the Dow Industrials for each trading day of the year so far:
- Monday up 1,076
- Tuesday up 12
- Wednesday up 114
- Thursday down 841
- Friday down 721

Sure makes you wish that we had more than 2 IFT's.

 

[Corepuncher]

Is everyone ready for the avalanche? I feel as though one is coming. <snip>....I do not believe this is a short term deal, but instead, an extended drama developing right before our eyes that will take a long time to get resolved.

Seems like it's "Round 2" as far as this correction/bear leg is concerned. I don't know how low we go in the near term, but I can surmise a guess. We are in the process of de-risking and money managers will have no choice but to buy some bonds and also Gold. More nimble investors like us will be able to take advantage at some point! Bernanke is laughing as people are being scared out of Europe and into our bonds. Perfect...blame the "stock market plunge" on Europe..lololololol! How diabolical...

I think 1000 is in jeapardy....and will consider playing for a bounce once we "bounce around" at a stable level. Check out the following chart...blue line is 40 week moving average (almost same at 200 day). Nice support/resistance, no???

Markets, and people, tend to gravitate towards symmetry. Look how we rallied to the "breakdown" point of 1200-1250 (Sept/2008)...or the "lower end of the upper levels". Similarly, I expect us to I am targeting 950 to 980 on a kangaroo tail near the "upper end" of the "lower levels".

 

[poolman]

Corepuncher,

Way to Hold your Gains thus far for the year. I agree with your assessment and target for the S & P. No need to talk deeper than what you already have but it would not surprise me to see your target prediction get violated also. Of course this will all take some time. We will have up day's and down days. Who knows but tomorrow's we could see a temporary low intra day and end higher. Although I don't think that is how it will pan out as of now. We need more ift's.

Nice Chart. Futures is already violating S & P 1055. I wish I was 100% F - Fund now.

Big World Events is Kicking Markets AZZ....

 

[nasa1974]

Let's hope today is only a bad day not a brutal one.

 

[Bullitt]

I'm afraid to see what's going to happen when leveraged players really begin to unwind. Since it looks like we're going to violate the flash crash low today, there should be plenty of margin calls taking place.

Mutual fund Monday is over, finally.

 

[nasa1974]

Early indications are pointing to brutal.

 

[visual]

Early indications are pointing to brutal.

Is it possible we will see -400 today?

 

[Bullitt]

Is it possible we will see -400 today?

Let's not get carried away now.

 

[Birchtree]

I think he meant +400 to the upside on the first sign of any good news from the ECB.

 

[poolman]

Corepuncher,

Way to Hold your Gains thus far for the year. I agree with your assessment and target for the S & P. No need to talk deeper than what you already have but it would not surprise me to see your target prediction get violated also. Of course this will all take some time. We will have up day's and down days. Who knows but tomorrow's we could see a temporary low intra day and end higher. Although I don't think that is how it will pan out as of now. We need more ift's.

Nice Chart. Futures is already violating S & P 1055. I wish I was 100% F - Fund now.

Big World Events is Kicking Markets AZZ....

Hey CP,

Check your pm's.

 

[Corepuncher]

Just a word of caution in case you bought in yesterday...you MAY want to take profits today. Take a look at the Euro:

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/b?s=EURUSD=X&lang=en-US&region=US
NOTE: This chart only vallid for 5/26/10

This is exactly how the market was behaving the day I sold (the Wed after that huge rally). I noticed that even though the market was up 1%, the Euro was taking a renewed dive. This did not make sense since the whole reason for the rally was a Eurozone bailout.

Technically that day when I sold we kissed the 50 day ma which acted as resistance. Now, we are under the 200 day which may do the same. That level is around 1100-1105...a key level in its own. Currently hovering near 1090...how much more upside is there, if we have turned a bearish corner? At most, I would expect a kiss of the 20 day ma (middle of BBands) in the 1130s. Too risky for me, I'm glad I can't buy right now.

 

[fedgolfer]

Just a word of caution in case you bought in yesterday...you MAY want to take profits today. Take a look at the Euro:

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/b?s=EURUSD=X&lang=en-US&region=US
NOTE: This chart only vallid for 5/26/10

This is exactly how the market was behaving the day I sold (the Wed after that huge rally). I noticed that even though the market was up 1%, the Euro was taking a renewed dive. This did not make sense since the whole reason for the rally was a Eurozone bailout.

Technically that day when I sold we kissed the 50 day ma which acted as resistance. Now, we are under the 200 day which may do the same. That level is around 1100-1105...a key level in its own. Currently hovering near 1090...how much more upside is there, if we have turned a bearish corner? At most, I would expect a kiss of the 20 day ma (middle of BBands) in the 1130s. Too risky for me, I'm glad I can't buy right now.

something is up on the vix too... crossover on PPO held in check by a 'roo tail...

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p62846443759