Corepuncher's Account Talk

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Corepuncher said:
Currently hovering near 1090...how much more upside is there, if we have turned a bearish corner? At most, I would expect a kiss of the 20 day ma (middle of BBands) in the 1130s. Too risky for me, I'm glad I can't buy right now.
Click to expand...

1,130??? I betcha there would be a whole buncha selling before the market ever got there. I would have said 1,090-1,100 before today's close, but now I'm not even confident of that. The next 10-12 trading sessions should give us a better sense of direction.

The posts here and IFT's are getting pretty smart; which suggests there isn't as much dumb money out there....and the lack of such is not good for the market. C'mon dummies!!!
 
Wow, the market has hit it's head on S&P 1090 multiple times in the last few days...down to the point. It's pretty obvious we have a stout resistance level:

1090

Now, it looks as though the Euro is heading to new lows. EUR/USD is having a hard time staying below 1.22...but it's inevitable that it will break solidly toward 1.20...and possibly 1.10's. Currencies aren't supposed to move this fast...this is a "black swan" in it's own right, IMO. The scary thing is, nobody knows to what extent this will affect the USA and our stock market. It looks obvious to me that the smart money is reducing risk. The market looks ahead, and I agree with them, there is nothing but uncertainty in sight.

The bounce off 1040 the other day was predictable...even CNBC mentioned that level specifically...and it is basically a "double bottom" looking at the February low of 1044. But, I don't think it will be a double bottom at all, because we are easily going to break 1040. 1000 is a sitting duck and will AT LEAST be tested, IMO. I really think we could head to 950 before a meaningful stabilization period. Whether some of this sovereign debt issue is taken care of or not...or there is at least clarity, will determine if we go up or down from there. As long as the dollar continues to go up against the Euro, and the Yen rises as well, that is a toxic recipe for the stock markets.

Alas, forced selling and margin calls and such will likely result in a nice buying opportunity for the retail investor. I just have no idea when it will end...but the market needs a glimmer of clarity on the horizon to begin moving up, and there just isn't one right now.

Last thing...I believe at some point, the I fund will rocket up as the overbought dollar sells off. The trick will be to catch when the Euro has finally bottomed. It'll probably be on some news and it will be a huge market up day and the dollar will tank. If you get in right away, I don't think it will be too late.
 
Corepuncher said:
Just a word of caution in case you bought in yesterday...you MAY want to take profits today. Take a look at the Euro:

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/b?s=EURUSD=X&lang=en-US&region=US
NOTE: This chart only vallid for 5/26/10

This is exactly how the market was behaving the day I sold (the Wed after that huge rally). I noticed that even though the market was up 1%, the Euro was taking a renewed dive. This did not make sense since the whole reason for the rally was a Eurozone bailout.

Technically that day when I sold we kissed the 50 day ma which acted as resistance. Now, we are under the 200 day which may do the same. That level is around 1100-1105...a key level in its own. Currently hovering near 1090...how much more upside is there, if we have turned a bearish corner? At most, I would expect a kiss of the 20 day ma (middle of BBands) in the 1130s. Too risky for me, I'm glad I can't buy right now.
Click to expand...

The Queen has spoken! 5/25/2010
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/25/queens-speech-bills-coalition
 
Ok...dumb n00b question. :embarrest:

What affect do margin calls have on the overall market?

I'm guessing, depending on how many there are, forced selling could lead us even lower, right? :o
 
Yes you are correct on the forced selling to cover any margin calls. But you can relax, I haven't been forced into any selling yet. I may sell my NAV (Navistar) to raise cash to do some select wall flower buying but other than that I'm holding my positions.
 
Small caps are getting hammered on a relative basis today. Risk off? Government intervention created a quick EUR/USD short squeeze....didn't do all that much for stocks.

I'm not in any hurry to buy into stock here. We have some economic data that may serve as a catalyst. Employment report Friday, but I'll use the ADP on Thu as my guage...because it's private and not government jobs....which is sorta "fake". The pros will dissect the Fri report anyway. Thu may give a clue...if ADP is LOWER than previous month, and the headline number Fri is as expectd (+500K), I believe we could see an initial pop, but it gets sold. If ADP is really good on Thu...I may risk some money in stocks for a pop on Friday.
 
Corepuncher said:
Small caps are getting hammered on a relative basis today. Risk off? Government intervention created a quick EUR/USD short squeeze....didn't do all that much for stocks.

I'm not in any hurry to buy into stock here. We have some economic data that may serve as a catalyst. Employment report Friday, but I'll use the ADP on Thu as my guage...because it's private and not government jobs....which is sorta "fake". The pros will dissect the Fri report anyway. Thu may give a clue...if ADP is LOWER than previous month, and the headline number Fri is as expectd (+500K), I believe we could see an initial pop, but it gets sold. If ADP is really good on Thu...I may risk some money in stocks for a pop on Friday.
Click to expand...

Mark your calendar, Jobs report Friday.
 
poolman said:
Mark your calendar, Jobs report Friday.
Click to expand...


I'm sitting this week OUT. I still see intradays above 1,100 being heavily sold into; based on advance/decline volumes recently. I see no major deviation from the forecast job numbers; at least not on the upside....and major weakness in early July as homesales numbers come in below expectations due to expiration of rebates, lack of job growth, and a significant inventory build traced to foreclosure/shortsale pulse; as one might expect from resets based on the Libor that many adjustables are based on.

I will wait until the 20 DMA starts up again; good luck to everyone else. Maybe I'll put some back into the F-fund.
 
Looks like employment report leak caused late rally today Not any volume behind it whatsoever. Now the danger is that the expectations are VERY high for Friday. Watch ADP tomorrow. All that matters is private sector hiring, not headlne number which is a bunch of gov. temp jobs and hocus pocus with birth/death models.

Sell the news baby, sell the news. Watch for it!
 
you are right, Core. and thanks for staying out I need all the help I can get struggling up the tracker. LOL
 
The market is in a very precarious spot here near the 200 day (or 40 week) MA 1106-1107. It would not surprise me to see a quick pump and dump near these levels to bring everyone in before unloading (A quick kangaroo tail poking up). I don't necessarily exect it though given the Euro action today...

Ask yourself the question, has the reason for the sell off thus far gone away? To my knowledge, it all remains, but just taking a breather. Look at EUR:USD today...was up hard, and markets rallied...now reversed as I type back to 1.22 and threatening to break.
 
Can you believe the administration? "The jobs report is gonna be screaming!" - Biden. And Obama was actually on TV touting the report. It was, in a word, EMBARRASSING! They are actually PROUD of the fact that they "created" a bunch of census/temp jobs. It just goes to show how clueless they are. I have no faith in them at all to do ANYTHING except SPEND taxpayer money and then boast about it.

That said NO WAY IN HELL I get back into this market at these levels. If you do, you are simply choosing red or black on the roulette wheel and I wish you luck.
 
I'm looking for a horrid close today followed by a bloody Monday. Still holding to 950-980 target to buy.

I will be watching the EURO closely. The market is tied to to hip with it...or at least the computers are! Watch the 1.20. If we bounce around near it and then rocket back up, it may market a bottom in which case you'd want to go all in equities...I or S fund. In fact, on a large Euro woosh where it looks like Europe is simply falling apart (like a woosh down to 1.00), I would go 100 I for a large bounce.
 
"Everyone" is talking about 1.15-1.16 as the next "support" level for the Euro/Dollar. If you want to play for a Euro bounce near there, look for a day when it appears we will break into 1.17's. You have to be slightly ahead of the "number" out there, because it turns fast.

That being said, I'm not sure I'd be a buyer of socks at a Euro/Dollar at 1.17. If I was, it would be for an oh so short bounce...like 1 or two days max...because it appears the Euro will constantly have downward pressure for quite a while.

If the last few months are any indication, the Euro will not be able to muster more than a 2-4 cent bounce. For example, 1.17 may bounce to 1.19-1.21. Also pay attention to the Euro/Yen cross. 110 is a level...maybe resistance now...but basically, there is NO SUPPORT under that.
 
Corepuncher said:
I'm looking for a horrid close today followed by a bloody Monday. Still holding to 950-980 target to buy.

I will be watching the EURO closely. The market is tied to to hip with it...or at least the computers are! Watch the 1.20. If we bounce around near it and then rocket back up, it may market a bottom in which case you'd want to go all in equities...I or S fund. In fact, on a large Euro woosh where it looks like Europe is simply falling apart (like a woosh down to 1.00), I would go 100 I for a large bounce.
Click to expand...


well - I am looking at futures -which can change quickly- but monday may be an unusual second consecutive >2% gap down at the open. Problem is, everyone is watching the same thing, and it may be overbought into and retreat on tuesday. Accordingly, a lower target close as you indicate, is a safer option - although there may be money to be made on other days for the brave.

You first.
 
One sensus worker can account for several jobs created. See
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/census_workers_share_their_horror_3n500ylC4lRwYtILY8jPBL

Corepuncher said:
Can you believe the administration? "The jobs report is gonna be screaming!" - Biden. And Obama was actually on TV touting the report. It was, in a word, EMBARRASSING! They are actually PROUD of the fact that they "created" a bunch of census/temp jobs. It just goes to show how clueless they are. I have no faith in them at all to do ANYTHING except SPEND taxpayer money and then boast about it.

That said NO WAY IN HELL I get back into this market at these levels. If you do, you are simply choosing red or black on the roulette wheel and I wish you luck.
Click to expand...
 
Yeah he messed up touting that jobs report. Reminds me of when Immelt pumped his earnings at GE in 2008 and they hammered his stock some 8% in one day.

You know, I had the pleasure of being called 'Corepuncher 2' last week for my bearish outlook?
 
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