Corepuncher's Account Talk

[crws]

might be a time for a risk spread, the 2 extremes seem out of favor to me. My outlook has evolved to remain conservatively engaged, as I think the majority of wild drama has been over-exposed.
The last remaining issue before full-fledged turnaround (financially speaking- beyond regaining employment) is stabilizing the real-estate market to the effect of keeping people in their homes. But who doesn't know about that?
I remain of the opinon (subject to immediate change, of course) that the EU markets will have a sharp benefit from the stimulus and bank stress testing that will gain the confidence of investors that flew the EU coup when the sh*7 hit the fan in May.
Guten Tag!

Well if I sell today I should either 1) Get all my loss back from when I went 100S on July 28th, or, if we do not get high, it probably means we are meeting technical resistance and I want to be out anyway. I can still buy again this month. F fund is down today maybe I'll rest in F until another stock dip. I do not like S though...if I go stocks I"ll go C.

Also, if they get the oil spill capped...that should cause a pop. Or rather, perhaps that is already being priced in as we speak...

Anyway technically we have a 1089 FIB line...the 50 day MA at 1096, and the 1100 level. Also the EURO is up again today, dollar down. It would not surprise me to see us close near the 200 day MA around 1110 on the S&P. Reversing the "golden cross" and 200 day headknocker levels will be tough. We'll needa continuous stream of good earnings to do it.

 

[Corepuncher]

I forgot to mention yesterday that the reason I went 100F is that it looks like a descending wedge. Symbol: AGG :nuts:

 

[ztlmike]

Agree with your move yesterday.
Should have went out then but when I looked at the time it was too late.
Finally made it back to the 1st page

 

[crws]

I Fund (EFA) & F Fund (AGG) Neck and Neck!
Which has the upside advantage?

I forgot to mention yesterday that the reason I went 100F is that it looks like a descending wedge. Symbol: AGG :nuts:

 

[Corepuncher]

I Fund (EFA) & F Fund (AGG) Neck and Neck!
Which has the upside advantage?

Well, the AGG chart is going up and to the right. I like it!

 

[crws]

A lucky day....LOL

Well, the AGG chart is going up and to the right. I like it!

 

[Corepuncher]

Did you see how the DOW was manipulated to close "green" for another consecutive day? Cute....but cute is for puppies, not the capital markets. In this case, CUTE turns to PUKE!

 

[tsptalk]

Oh, I don't know. If that was the case you'd think they push the S&P into the green as well - it just needed 18 cents to do so.

The strength was in the Nasdaq and Transports today, and that was the story to me. That and more weakness in the dollar / strength in the euro. But the S&P does need to break that resistance before I get too excited.

 

[felixthecat]

On the flip side...Wilshire 4500 was down today and does represent the S fund. So even though Nasdaq was up...the real story was that S&P and S fund were weak. However...with that said, we didn't see a selloff.

Since nasdaq and S&P fell below resistance...I'm not inclined to stick my neck out again.

 

[tsptalk]

Good point. We'd like to see small caps lead in a bull. If there is an excuse, the small caps were up 2.72% yesterday compared to 1.54% in the S&P, so a little profit taking seemed reasonable.

 

[Tsunami]

The lack of a significant selloff after such a big rally is pretty encouraging for a continued up move. The correction here will probably be pretty meek. Also, the last second selloff yesterday dropped the S&P just below its 50dma, a nice save by the bears. Today was the opposite and the last minute rally resulted in the first close above the 50dma since May 4th, a pretty bullish event for a sideways day.

 

[Warrenlm]

A lot is made by the media of the huge sums on corporate balance sheets that are available for expansion...$1.8T or so. At the risk of a "Duh" response I'll ask why couldn't that as well be a bearish signal? Perhaps that will be used to acquire other companies instead of expand own ops? That would cut employment at the same time as helping the corporation's health.

 

[DCguy]

heavy resistance at DOW 10400 ~ 10500. If it fails to penetrate that, it will drop below 10k again.

 

[Corepuncher]

When the market is going up, S fund leads...when the market is down, S fund leads. It is obvious to me that these are traders using the higher volatility sectors for "trades", not necessarily good long term prospects. Getting most bang for the buck....but as quickly as they pile in, they pile right back out.

Today's morning data blew. I'll be curious to see how Google behaves today before earnings are released...probably will be a tell.

 

[crws]

that F fund is mighty enticing, but still the fact remains it is at an all time high....
I'm not so sure I like that it slides down as the market calms, however. I tend to believe all the jabber that that's where the cash is.
We're running out of suprises, but I suppose some more doom & gloom may help you.....or not.:nuts:

 

[Corepuncher]

F fund a rockin' once again today. Being that the stock charts are breaking again, I plan on remaining in F until I sense a market bottom.

Just yesterday some analyst was saying a close < 1085 and the rally is toast. He USED to work for GS...which means it's more likely to be an accurate prediction as opposed to coming from someone who is currently working there. Looks like we'll close below that today for certain.

Looking to break 1000 on the S&P. Think we could overshoot into the "congestion zone" from 2009 in the 970-980s.

 

[crws]

good call,
looks like you'll be back into the top 10

 

[amoeba]

so - CP looking like a repeat monthly return leader for 2/3 last months?; I followed your move into F-fund; you are my hero.

Anyhoo - I have been watching the ^VIX SMA's, and the 200 SMA just inflected - it's still high (~31 or so), but now all three (20, 50, 200) are moving down together for the first time in a long time, last time this happened - the market moved higher - but it wasn't without it's moments; so I am mostly out for now, especially with headline domination - that tends to produce larger shorter term fluctuations. Not for the meek.

They need to give me a prize for number of IFT's; I plan to have 50 or more by year's end.

 

[visual]

Great call. Your move and the Harry Dent video, I went to F before the smack down last friday.

 

[Corepuncher]

Went 2/3 into stocks today... 33I 33S 34G.

Our close today was the highest since May...and now we are in an uptrend. The anatomy of this "bottom" is such that looks like 1220's is reachable, which would be a double top. Currencies have stabilized, but dollar is crashing and I think it will overshoot to downside...which means stocks go up, markets go up, bonds go down....although I still like F fund, but going out as I expect a correction if stocks rally.

The VIX also is breaking down...closed below 200 day ma. If we can get through all the economic data this week, we are set for a 7-9% rally from here! I'll be buying more stocks on a dip if we get one this week.

Remember, larger funds have to move money in slowly...they can't go 100 in all of a sudden...that gives us an advantage as we can strike quickly (sounds like shark investing!).