crws
Active member
dude, you left the easy money behind.....tsk, tsk, tsk.
How are you gonna get any sleep now? :laugh:
How are you gonna get any sleep now? :laugh:
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Corepuncher's Account Talk
- Thread starter Corepuncher
- Start date
Corepuncher
Well-known member
This rally has awaken me from my slumber. Got caught in the downdraft like so many times before, but like each time, I was patient and may be rewarded with an opportunity to profit, although it could have been "so much more", but isn't that always the case?
I think this rally will continue as long as Bonds continue to slip. This little AGG correction seems quite stout...and has broken support. Seems like the general concensus is for this to continue...which would mean you don't want to be in F fund. I'll go G for safety from now on.
Anyway, just a little TA below. I THOUGHT mid July might have been a shoulder, and I got excited and bought at the top in early August. I stayed the course and now have almost made back all those losses. It is tempting to get out if I hit my last buy price which was 1126 on the S&P. However, that could be an equally bad choice as the rally might persist past that point. If all is quiet on the news front and some volume returns with more of a "risk on" appetite developing, we could see lower 1200s on the S&P. An inverted H&S would yield a nice double top around 1200-1230.
The othe possibility that I see is that we stay in this "range"...except since everyone knows the range (1120-1040), it may start to "narrow"...with lower highs and higher lows. If we stall under 1120s and drift back down, I would think a target around 1060s would be in order...then when we finally do converge, I would expect a drop. But, I think this scenario is less likely than a shot back up through the 1100's. We'll see. If negative forces (near term) can wane, then the market can revert back to it's natural tendency, which is to drift up.
I think this rally will continue as long as Bonds continue to slip. This little AGG correction seems quite stout...and has broken support. Seems like the general concensus is for this to continue...which would mean you don't want to be in F fund. I'll go G for safety from now on.
Anyway, just a little TA below. I THOUGHT mid July might have been a shoulder, and I got excited and bought at the top in early August. I stayed the course and now have almost made back all those losses. It is tempting to get out if I hit my last buy price which was 1126 on the S&P. However, that could be an equally bad choice as the rally might persist past that point. If all is quiet on the news front and some volume returns with more of a "risk on" appetite developing, we could see lower 1200s on the S&P. An inverted H&S would yield a nice double top around 1200-1230.
The othe possibility that I see is that we stay in this "range"...except since everyone knows the range (1120-1040), it may start to "narrow"...with lower highs and higher lows. If we stall under 1120s and drift back down, I would think a target around 1060s would be in order...then when we finally do converge, I would expect a drop. But, I think this scenario is less likely than a shot back up through the 1100's. We'll see. If negative forces (near term) can wane, then the market can revert back to it's natural tendency, which is to drift up.
crws
Active member
This rally has awaken me from my slumber. Got caught in the downdraft like so many times before, but like each time, I was patient and may be rewarded with an opportunity to profit, although it could have been "so much more", but isn't that always the case?
I think this rally will continue as long as Bonds continue to slip. This little AGG correction seems quite stout...and has broken support. Seems like the general concensus is for this to continue...which would mean you don't want to be in F fund. I'll go G for safety from now on.
Anyway, just a little TA below. I THOUGHT mid July might have been a shoulder, and I got excited and bought at the top in early August. I stayed the course and now have almost made back all those losses. It is tempting to get out if I hit my last buy price which was 1126 on the S&P. However, that could be an equally bad choice as the rally might persist past that point. If all is quiet on the news front and some volume returns with more of a "risk on" appetite developing, we could see lower 1200s on the S&P. An inverted H&S would yield a nice double top around 1200-1230.
The othe possibility that I see is that we stay in this "range"...except since everyone knows the range (1120-1040), it may start to "narrow"...with lower highs and higher lows. If we stall under 1120s and drift back down, I would think a target around 1060s would be in order...then when we finally do converge, I would expect a drop. But, I think this scenario is less likely than a shot back up through the 1100's. We'll see. If negative forces (near term) can wane, then the market can revert back to it's natural tendency, which is to drift up.
that MACD certainly looks convincing. I don't see any positive move of substance that didn't continue for a week at least.
Alot can happen over a 3 day weekend. A dive in may be in order.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Yes, I like the higher lows/higher highs in the MACD while the market has consolidated sideways. Economic backdrop still sucks though.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I still think there could be a rally based on nothing, but I"m thinking this quick low volume rise may be sold soon. Near A LOT of overhead resistance on the charts. Since F fund is down so large today, I figured I'd take a gamble...100F.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Is it just me, or has the P&F chart become a great contrarian indicator??
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Bonds SOARING today.
Stocks faltering with continued low volume.
Gold up to new high.
Dollar getting killed, yet OIL is down.
-------------------------------------------
SUM = Lame macroeconomic backdrop, flat to down equities long term.
Staying long 100% F fund. The FED will likely buy more bonds.
My hope is to refinance my 30 year mortgage at < 4.00% within the next year.
Stocks faltering with continued low volume.
Gold up to new high.
Dollar getting killed, yet OIL is down.
-------------------------------------------
SUM = Lame macroeconomic backdrop, flat to down equities long term.
Staying long 100% F fund. The FED will likely buy more bonds.
My hope is to refinance my 30 year mortgage at < 4.00% within the next year.
WorkFE
Well-known member
I'm with you on that one. A friend of mine jumped in a year ago. I told him to wait. You can get a 15 year under 4 already, I'm shooting for 3
Corepuncher
Well-known member
crws
Active member
good article. Thanks.
You saw this from Uptrend, yes?
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=284284
Corepuncher
Well-known member
Corepuncher
Well-known member
I've spent much time thinking lately about the direction we are going. The conclusion: We better stop spending more money than we make ASAP, or we are toast.
If not for federal spending, our current GDP is -10%, which is the definition of a depression. I'll borrow this graph from Denninger:
The S&P would have been trading at 200 if they had not stepped in. Ok, can't blame em for that...but the unfortunate part of it is this...we're gonna have to pay the piper AT SOME POINT, and the longer it is delayed, the worse it will be!
I've been trying to figure out when we will be FORCED to stop this B.S. spending. It's something like 60% of our income we spend on entitlements, and the other 40%...BORROWED! That is a PROBLEM! 100% of our income is used to pay out entitlements...all else is funded BY OUR DEBT HOLDERS! We'll keep issuing a trillion dollars of debt a year to maintain our spending rate AS LONG AS THE WORLD LETS US. It's already baked into the cake...take a look at this:
These estimates are ALWAYS UNDERDONE! But you can see how much more "debt" we need to issue. 8 trillion through 2019? 8 trillion is about 67% of GDP! So...imagine you make 100K and you approach a friend.
"Will you lend me 10,000 dollars a year...I will pay you 1% interest if you do".
Friend thinks. "Hmm, is the "1%" interest enough to hedge against your possible default?"
Friend: "If you need to borrow this money just to live, how will you pay it back the principal to me, let alone any interest?".
You: "Well, when it comes time to pay you back, I'll just take out another loan from someone else, and you'll get your money".
Friend: "That sounds like a Ponzi scheme".
You: "Yep!"
OK...CHOOSE YOUR OWN ADVENTURE TIME! The first road, is that we keep spending and issuing bonds to fund it. At some point, we have a failed bond auction...nobody left to buy the bonds. Bonds collapse 1930's style and rates skyrocket. Lending (which is ALREADY slow) collapses to NOTHING. Housing (AGAIN, WHICH ALREADY IS IN THE DUMPS), implodes. Bank's balance sheets are decimated...and they are "Officially" Nationalized. Stock market multiples suddenly appear astronomically high, and "adjust"...probably down 70% or more...and they STAY THERE. Oh, and your nice little F fund is down about as much. This will also result in increased unemployment as corporate profits dwindle. We are in a very bad place!
The second road is that we keep doing "Quantitative Easing" in which we buy our OWN debt with money we print. This will eventually DESTROY the value of the dollar and do two things. 1) Inflate all imports dramatically as well as commodities and 2) Crash the bond market because who wants to "earn" 3% on a long bond and get paid back in dollars that are CHEAPER than the ones you bought the bond with! Margins will get squeezed as companies WILL NOT be able to raise prices of good, although oil is killing them. Stock valuations too rich, market adjusts violently.
One caveat...what if EVERYONE in the world devalues their currencies to keep ours at a level of relative strength? Well, things like food and energy, and gold, will rocket in price. Margins still squeezed...consumers now buy only what they NEED to survive. Since stocks are dropping, there COULD be a flood of money going into the Bond market and the dollar, but as you know dollar up, stocks down in today's economy. That would be temporary until just like in the 30's, bonds collapse, rates skyrocket, lending ceases.
Either way we are screwed. Will it be 1 year? 5 years? I do not know...but can you not feel the ground shaking?
Finally, here's a brilliant article I came across. We can all turn our heads and pretend those graphs don't matter, but unfortunately, they are REAL.
http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress...ding-the-national-debt-sesame-street-edition/
If not for federal spending, our current GDP is -10%, which is the definition of a depression. I'll borrow this graph from Denninger:
The S&P would have been trading at 200 if they had not stepped in. Ok, can't blame em for that...but the unfortunate part of it is this...we're gonna have to pay the piper AT SOME POINT, and the longer it is delayed, the worse it will be!
I've been trying to figure out when we will be FORCED to stop this B.S. spending. It's something like 60% of our income we spend on entitlements, and the other 40%...BORROWED! That is a PROBLEM! 100% of our income is used to pay out entitlements...all else is funded BY OUR DEBT HOLDERS! We'll keep issuing a trillion dollars of debt a year to maintain our spending rate AS LONG AS THE WORLD LETS US. It's already baked into the cake...take a look at this:
These estimates are ALWAYS UNDERDONE! But you can see how much more "debt" we need to issue. 8 trillion through 2019? 8 trillion is about 67% of GDP! So...imagine you make 100K and you approach a friend.
"Will you lend me 10,000 dollars a year...I will pay you 1% interest if you do".
Friend thinks. "Hmm, is the "1%" interest enough to hedge against your possible default?"
Friend: "If you need to borrow this money just to live, how will you pay it back the principal to me, let alone any interest?".
You: "Well, when it comes time to pay you back, I'll just take out another loan from someone else, and you'll get your money".
Friend: "That sounds like a Ponzi scheme".
You: "Yep!"
OK...CHOOSE YOUR OWN ADVENTURE TIME! The first road, is that we keep spending and issuing bonds to fund it. At some point, we have a failed bond auction...nobody left to buy the bonds. Bonds collapse 1930's style and rates skyrocket. Lending (which is ALREADY slow) collapses to NOTHING. Housing (AGAIN, WHICH ALREADY IS IN THE DUMPS), implodes. Bank's balance sheets are decimated...and they are "Officially" Nationalized. Stock market multiples suddenly appear astronomically high, and "adjust"...probably down 70% or more...and they STAY THERE. Oh, and your nice little F fund is down about as much. This will also result in increased unemployment as corporate profits dwindle. We are in a very bad place!
The second road is that we keep doing "Quantitative Easing" in which we buy our OWN debt with money we print. This will eventually DESTROY the value of the dollar and do two things. 1) Inflate all imports dramatically as well as commodities and 2) Crash the bond market because who wants to "earn" 3% on a long bond and get paid back in dollars that are CHEAPER than the ones you bought the bond with! Margins will get squeezed as companies WILL NOT be able to raise prices of good, although oil is killing them. Stock valuations too rich, market adjusts violently.
One caveat...what if EVERYONE in the world devalues their currencies to keep ours at a level of relative strength? Well, things like food and energy, and gold, will rocket in price. Margins still squeezed...consumers now buy only what they NEED to survive. Since stocks are dropping, there COULD be a flood of money going into the Bond market and the dollar, but as you know dollar up, stocks down in today's economy. That would be temporary until just like in the 30's, bonds collapse, rates skyrocket, lending ceases.
Either way we are screwed. Will it be 1 year? 5 years? I do not know...but can you not feel the ground shaking?
Finally, here's a brilliant article I came across. We can all turn our heads and pretend those graphs don't matter, but unfortunately, they are REAL.
http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress...ding-the-national-debt-sesame-street-edition/
Buffalo_Nickle
Member
Excellent Post ! Thanks, I already had the outlook and general feeling!
Corepuncher
Well-known member
KevinD
Well-known member
View attachment 10167 Happy Birthday! 
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