coolhand's Account Talk

[Epic]

:nuts::laugh::blink: . . LOL . . . .

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading shows a 3rd consecutive weekly increase toward the bullish side, but the reading is only neutral now. There isn't much to read into this as their risk is spread out. However, the bulls remains leveraged long, while the bears are largely neutral in terms of leverage. Pretty hard to get excited about this market in either direction with this reading.

 

[nasa1974]

Thanks CH, you are always informative.

 

[coolhand]

The latest reading saw a good bump higher in bullishness. The reading is now modestly bullish. These money managers have collectively been quite apprehensive of this rally (for good reason), but we may be seeing a bit of capitulation in the numbers. Overall, I think the risk is now to the upside. Keep in mind, they are only modestly bullish and are not throwing caution to the wind, but are taking what they think the market will give them without undue risk.

 

[dannyboy]

The latest reading saw a good bump higher in bullishness. The reading is now modestly bullish. These money managers have collectively been quite apprehensive of this rally (for good reason), but we may be seeing a bit of capitulation in the numbers. Overall, I think the risk is now to the upside. Keep in mind, they are only modestly bullish and are not throwing caution to the wind, but are taking what they think the market will give them without undue risk.td

Thanks, CH,
I keep reading your posts and it is very helpful.

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading shows a somewhat modest reduction in bullish stock exposure in quart 2. The overall reading dropped about 7 points, which shifts the reading from modestly bullish to a more neutral stance. Obviously, these money managers remain collectively uncomfortable with the stock market. The bulls among them continue to hold leveraged long positions, while the bears remain much more tempered in their bearishness and are not leveraged short. Collectively, they continue to remain wary.

 

[racinfish]

I’m one of many that reads this website constantly and I want to say that this post is probably one of the best written analysis that I’ve ever read.

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading saw the Mean Average drop about 10 points. I note that the bulls among them remain leveraged long, but the bears have doubled their short positions (but they are still not leveraged). There remains a healthy respect of the short side as these money managers know how the game is played, which is why they are not leveraged. Overall, I would say the reading remains neutral. I think as long as the bulls remain leveraged long and the bears remain unleveraged, the downside will probably remain limited, but the market may stay in a range of sorts.

 

[nasa1974]

CH, Thank you as always for your insight.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading took a plunge lower from neutral to bearish. The bears remain fully short, but not leveraged short and the bulls remain leveraged long, but there a fewer of them. This reading, which dropped more than 22 points, is now bearish. With this sizable shift a bottom may be near, but because this is smart money it may or may not hold. Watch for technical indicators of support to see whether they hold or not. In my opinion, this market will be heading lower longer term, but perhaps not without punishing bears on the way down.

 

[nasa1974]

In my opinion, this market will be heading lower longer term, but perhaps not without punishing bears on the way down.

Back in the 6 digit loss category. It looks like I'm going to have to live with that. Can't afford to ride this train much longer.

 

[coolhand]

Things are starting to get more interesting. This week's NAAIM reading got a bit more bearish overall. I note that the bulls remain leveraged long, but their numbers were down a bit. The bears, on the other hand, are starting to take some leveraged short positions, but they are only nibbling at leveraged positions and remain cautious on the leveraged short side. Reading between the lines of this current NAAIM picture seems like this market may be getting ready to take another leg down. We'll see how it goes, but if I was a bull I would be rather nervous right now.

 

[coolhand]

Not too much change for this week's NAAIM reading. The mean/average drifted higher, but not enough to be meaningful. Looks like some relatively modest reshuffling of positions in the numbers, but overall it's the same bearish picture for these money managers. The reading remains bearish.

 

[coolhand]

The latest NAAIM reading shows only modest changes from last week. The reading dipped and the numbers show a modest increase in bearish sentiment and a modest decrease in bullish sentiment. As has been the case for many weeks now, the bulls remain fully leveraged long, while the bears are short, but not leveraged. The previous 2 weeks did show a somewhat modest position in leveraged short positions, but that is not the case this week. The overall reading remains bearish.

 

[coolhand]

This week's NAAIM reading took a sizeable dip from last week's reading. This group of money managers are very bearish now. There are few bulls left. Leveraged long positions are still in evidence, but I think that is more about balancing a portfolio than actual bullishness. The bears have moved from simply short to taking some leveraged short positions. They would seem to be smelling blood in the water, but they have not thrown caution to the wind (they are not fully leveraged short, only half).

I would take this week's numbers serious. Geopolitical jawboning and events are highly suggestive of turbulence (war) over the weeks ahead.

 

[coolhand]

I would think at least some of you have noticed that over the past weeks and even months, it seems that when the NAAIM money managers start leaning a bit with some leveraged short positions, the market has typically rewarded them with a snap back rally; often a big one too. This is how the dumb money is usually rewarded, but even the smart money is not getting any leveraged traction on short positions (generally speaking). This can't go on forever, but good luck trying to discern when it's "different this time".

 

[coolhand]

Today's NAAIM reading shows the bears backing away from their recent leveraged short positions (not a surprise). The overall reading rose a fair amount, but it only went from very bearish to just bearish. I very much suspect that these managers are not going to get bullish in this market environment easily. Leveraged long positions remain in place (risk management) and the bears are now sitting back again waiting for another potential opportunity to get leveraged short again. Nothing much has changed. It's a waiting game that could go on for some weeks yet and it will be interesting to see how things unfold as we get closer to the holiday period at the end of the year.

 

[coolhand]

The market is testing support once again. At some point I expect it to fail. Is it this time? NAAIM hasn't been buying the bullish argument (aside from adding longs for risk management).

 

[coolhand]

It's that time of the week again. This week's NAAIM reading dipped to a more bearish posture. These money managers really do seem to expect this market to drop significantly sooner or later. In this case, it's later as we've been watching this sideways dance for a awhile now. But support has currently been breached on the major averages. The question is whether support will become resistance over the days ahead.

Looking at the numbers, the bears increased their shorts modestly and they are now fully short (not leveraged). There is still no leveraged shorts shown in the readings. Bullish longs remain in place for risk management. So, again the reading is quite bearish.

 

[coolhand]

NAAIM had a big jump in its mean average this week. The reading is up more than 23 points. Looking at the numbers, the bears (who were not leveraged short) have cut their short exposure by 60%. Bullish leverage rose a fair amount as a result. Having said all this, the reading itself is still not bullish. I would call it modestly bearish. It would appear that a lot of money is sitting in cash given the overall numbers. These numbers would suggest that they are wary of both the long and short side. No surprise there.