coolhand's Account Talk

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We may lose economic leadership because of the fluttering 'Black Swan Event' President.

The other countries in the G20 kinda like stability.

This week 'The Summer of Recovery', next week a belch about the corpulent fat cat bankers; a bit later why not change the economic foundation with decisions to be made later.

Anyone think these countries want to tie themselves to the paragon of stability we no longer are?
 
My short term system remains on a sell today, but the Sentinels should easily remain on a buy given today's action thus far. It's tough to fight the fed here and I'm of the opinion weakness will be bought this week. Chop is probably the name of the game at the moment. G20 meeting coming soon, so currencies will continue to be a focal point short term. Sentiment is mixed, although our survey is a big time sell. Still, that sell signal has to be tempered with the bigger picture of sentiment overall.
 
Euro Crisis Enters New Phase With Credit Pinch

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...h-credit-pinch-commentary-by-daniel-gros.html

ETFs Riskier to Markets Than High-Frequency Trading, Kauffman Study Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...gh-frequency-trading-kauffman-study-says.html

Euro Falls to One-Week Low Versus Dollar on European Fund-Raising Concern

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...n-some-nations-will-struggle-to-pay-debt.html

U.S. Bond Rating Upgrades Trounce Europe by Record Amount: Credit Markets

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=289148

Fed Global Backlash Grows

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...33804.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Dallas Fed Admits "For The Next Eight Months, The Nation’s Central Bank Will Be Monetizing The Federal Debt", Opens Door To Bernanke Impeachment

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/da...ntral-bank-will-be-monetizing-federal-debt-op

QE2 A Dangerous Endgame For Ordinary Wage Earning Americans

http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzn...age-earning-americans/?boxes=Homepagelighttop
 
How are you taking all the overseas bellowing about the Fed's $600B move? It seems a relatively small increase in the overall money supply considering they've been growing it every year anyway. Is it merely for show? Could the bellowing be about their belief that the QE2 amount will certainly be followed by much larger amounts? It does seem unlikely that $600B will result in floating the boat high enough, considering the trillions involved.
 
You are correct. Some are saying $600B is not a big deal, while others (including global players) are saying quite the opposite. It's always like that regardless of the issue. I'm not comfortable with the whole thing, but I have no opinion what the results of this lastest round of QE will bring. I will say this, if the economy is gaining strength like some would have us believe, why is this QE necessary? What's next if this doesn't work?

Warrenlm said:
How are you taking all the overseas bellowing about the Fed's $600B move? It seems a relatively small increase in the overall money supply considering they've been growing it every year anyway. Is it merely for show? Could the bellowing be about their belief that the QE2 amount will certainly be followed by much larger amounts? It does seem unlikely that $600B will result in floating the boat high enough, considering the trillions involved.
Click to expand...
 
I'm hearing that sentiment has shifted to a bullish posture in other survey's besides our own. That means a sell-off has just become more likey. Risk is now elevated. But that doesn't mean a short duration move lower won't be bought. This could turn out to be topping action in progress, and that could take a bit of time to play out. It's something to keep an eye on at the moment as things could change again very quickly. As for me, my risk level is low at the moment and I'm going to continue to be very cautious.
 
coolhand said:
You are correct. Some are saying $600B is not a big deal, while others (including global players) are saying quite the opposite. It's always like that regardless of the issue. I'm not comfortable with the whole thing, but I have no opinion what the results of this lastest round of QE will bring. I will say this, if the economy is gaining strength like some would have us believe, why is this QE necessary? What's next if this doesn't work?
Click to expand...

AMEN !!! Brother

You are Rock Solid !!
 
coolhand said:
I'm hearing that sentiment has shifted to a bullish posture in other survey's besides our own. That means a sell-off has just become more likey. Risk is now elevated. But that doesn't mean a short duration move lower won't be bought. This could turn out to be topping action in progress, and that could take a bit of time to play out. It's something to keep an eye on at the moment as things could change again very quickly. As for me, my risk level is low at the moment and I'm going to continue to be very cautious.
Click to expand...

OPEX next week, then the holiday season starts in earnest.
IMO, any blip will be just that.
I think any losses this week will come back next as the upward bias for OPEX is most likely already written into the cards.
I'm all in for the duration, just look at the S Fund this year. Who can argue with 21.64%, when the Survey is only 5% higher?

Holiday hiring kicks into high gear

Holiday hiring picture getting a bit merrier
 
Now I know how you voted on that last sentiment survey. ;)

I always try to caveat my market assessments as the market has the final word on what it is going to do. But decisions are based on many variables and for each of us those variables differ. I have three other market accounts (IRAs) besides TSP. They are all buy and hold. So while I don't treat my TSP as a buy and hold account, I'm still in the market in other places.

I'll win regardless. :D




crws said:
OPEX next week, then the holiday season starts in earnest.
IMO, any blip will be just that.
I think any losses this week will come back next as the upward bias for OPEX is most likely already written into the cards.
I'm all in for the duration, just look at the S Fund this year. Who can argue with 21.64%, when the Survey is only 5% higher?

Holiday hiring kicks into high gear

Holiday hiring picture getting a bit merrier
Click to expand...
 
The bull is getting ready to rip mom and pop a new one, again. The hurd is going to miss this one, again. Once we take out SPX 1230 there is no looking back for the next six months.
 
Some see the recent increases to be the bringing forward of the Santa Claus rally. I guess it's hard to argue with that given the much earlier Chistmas advertising. :cheesy:
 
G20 Unity Born in Financial Crisis Fractures as Leaders Pursue Own Ends

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...sis-fractures-as-leaders-pursue-own-ends.html

Einhorn's Greenlight Says Fed's Quantitative Easing Won't Benefit Economy

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...ays-fed-s-quantitative-easing-won-t-work.html

New Risks Emerge in Munis

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...48850.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection

Don't Look Now, But Here Come the New, New Bank Fees

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...984.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_personalfinance

Debt Bubble Chronicles: Does Bernanke REALLY Think QE Will Boost Home Prices… Or is He Simply Trying to Hide an Even Bigger Problem?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/de...the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero)

Short bets in U.S. stocks fall in late Oct

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0912019520101109
 
I haven't heard from Stickan in quite some time. Good to know info on the fast sto. Thanks for that. Now it's just a small matter of picking an entry point. But I still have to watch for a potential SS sell. At the moment given today's action it should remain on a buy for today, but again that's at this moment in time.

I see treasuries are back under pressure again. I think the G20 meeting combined with QE2 is causing all the volatility.

fedgolfer said:
CH,

What has Stickan said lately?

Anyway, check out this link showing trend duration of 7 sentinels settings on the $bpcompq. The fast stoch is something to keep an eye on, prevents you from bailing to early on the trend.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPCOMPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=7&dy=0&id=p38296139161

also posted on your 7 sents blog today.

FG
Click to expand...
 
CH, thanks. Lemme know if you hear any more great TA from the TT board or Stickan.

RE: smart money getting bullish @ a perceived top, seems like technical mumbo jumbo for the big boys taking the shares off of the weak hands and building a higher base... basically, the big boys backing the Fed... JMHO.

Playing golf tomorrow... hope to post my 20th round in a row under 80 (that's a first for me -- ha, had to share, my wife could care less).
 
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