coolhand's Account Talk

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coolhand said:
It's a tough read right now. We have had a decent rally off recent lows so unless one is a diehard bull the upside could be limited from here. In other words it may not be worth chasing what could be a one day rally given it's the first week of the month with only two IFTs in one's back pocket.

I think it's important that we don't get too caught up in the day-to-day market action and pick our spots very carefully. In a less volatile market I'd be much more inclined to ride the SS signals from buy to sell, but this market often doesn't give us any reaction time.

We may have a nice wall of worry to climb, but I'm one of those traders who thinks it really may be different this time. That said I'm going to error on the side of caution.
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Thanks CH - excellent read

 
You've got to hand it to the Seven Sentinels.....

Following this system, on Jan. 1 you would have been in stocks from a buy signal late last year, on about Jan. 15 it gave a sell signal so you go to G or F which is right before the correction began, on about Feb. 12 it gave a buy signal so you would be in stocks right now and caught most of this latest gain including the big jump today (especially if you were in the S fund).

You can't argue with results and this system has performed remarkably since the beginning of last year and probably before that.

Much thanks to you, Coolhand for introducing it to us and the daily updates you give on it in your blog.
 
akpackfan said:
You've got to hand it to the Seven Sentinels.....

Following this system, on Jan. 1 you would have been in stocks from a buy signal late last year, on about Jan. 15 it gave a sell signal so you go to G or F which is right before the correction began, on about Feb. 12 it gave a buy signal so you would be in stocks right now and caught most of this latest gain including the big jump today (especially if you were in the S fund).

You can't argue with results and this system has performed remarkably since the beginning of last year and probably before that.

Much thanks to you, Coolhand for introducing it to us and the daily updates you give on it in your blog.
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If it wasn't for volatility this past year, I'd be more patient. I tried to follow the SS from signal to signal last year, but got whipsawed due to big moves on fast action. This year I've been more cautious, but I could have been up much higher if I'd followed it more closely. That's market character for you. :rolleyes:
 
Yesterday the Trader's Talk sentiment survey had a lot of fully short bears, and we saw we happened to them as a result. Today it's almost flipped over. Lot's of fully long bulls (but there's still some bears in there). I noticed a fair number of TSP participants jumping in on strength too. That's how quick sentiment can change.

I'm looking for a very short term top today, before we get some pullback. Could be intraday and not necessarily end of day. If we get that weakness I'm not so sure buying the first dip would be the smart play. Not after this run-up anyway. We'll see how it unfolds.
 
coolhand said:
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...estor&ArticleId=NS20100301074755TheBigPicture
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... churning market between 1040 and 1150 level on the SPX would be good for TSPtalk'ers if we can stay disciplined in that range. I think I balked too early on March IFT #1. I should have had the fortitude to sit through -2% until a doulbe top was reached... at least that's what I'm thinking right now sitting in G :)

Good experience can be gained in that article on market emotions. I'll be curious to see the sentiment indicators this week from TSPTalk, Trader's Talk, etc.
 
http://www.comstockfunds.com/screenprint.aspx?newsletterid=1514&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

Some may wonder why we continue to emphasize the global financial and economic problems and what this has to do with the stock market. In our view this has everything to do with the stock market. The entire rally has been based on the belief that we can undergo a V-shaped recovery and that modern governments just will not allow the kind of unraveling that has followed all other major credit crises. However, governments can only try to halt the malaise by increasing their own debt and running up huge budget deficits that cannot be sustained. In the U.S. we are already seeing the backlash as the public, while still demanding that the government somehow create more jobs, is also rebelling against the prospect of ever-increasing deficits.

Therefore if the market, as we believe, is discounting events that will not happen, the disappointment will be severe---and in a market increasingly dominated by trend players, the rush for the exits can be something to behold. The market peaked on January 19th at 1150 intraday on the S&P 500, declined to 1044 and now has bounced back to 1122. After the March 2009 low the index moved 62% in six and a half months, but only 4% in the last five and a half months. In our view this is all part of a topping formation that will be followed by a substantial decline in the period ahead.
 
I decided to move to your house and leave Bullitt's alone. Maybe I should have gone to my own under utilized abode.

My house situation is nothing compared to some of my co-workers who bought in at much higher levels. They can't walk away as easily as many since they are Gov employees. Some are well over $100K under. I'm 52 and have time on my side yet, but that doesn't mean I'm comfortable that things will work themselves out favorably even in the next 5 years. I just don't see that. We have many more obstacles to get past yet, and unless the pols stop the record deficit spending, we're done. That assumes we haven't already fallen over the cliff and just waiting to hit the ground now. :rolleyes:
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I have many co-workers in the same situation. I have mixed sympathies toward them. I look around the parking lot every day and might think I were in the junior partner's parking area for an upscale law firm. There are also a few vehicles older than my own 01. Most of the upside downers that complain a lot about it manage to come up with a new vehicle every six months or so. Every one has their own priorities and I try not to judge.

I am also concerned about short sitedness in the government spending. Particularly because most of my future is tied to government trust funds, MRTF, CSRDF and OASDI. Non of them really exist as money. The TSP and some meager savings may be all I have.

I told my children, both in their 30s now, years ago I would do the best I could but not to expect a large estate from me. I will come first. Selfish? Yes. Did they listen? As much as I did in my 30s.

I do have some faith in the future. I'm just not blind to the present.
 
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...1035681776.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_business

The federal government's mortgage-insurance agency is understating how much risk it has taken on, says a group of economists from the New York Federal Reserve and New York University, increasing the likelihood the agency may need taxpayer funds.

The economists warn that the Federal Housing Administration—which has jumped to fill the void left by the collapse of the private mortgage market—is overlooking factors that signal higher losses, according to a working paper released Thursday.

The agency has traditionally turned a profit for the U.S. government. But the economists warn that by underestimating the risks it faces, the FHA has increased the likelihood that it will have to ask Congress for money for the first time in its 75-year history.

The study doesn't say how likely that now is, but "it's hard to imagine that they won't be returning to Congress several times," said Andrew Caplin, one of the authors and an economics professor at NYU. "It's just inconceivable that the loans ... will not cause very large losses."
 
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/whos-behind-the-financial-crisis/

"The most influential members of Managed Funds Association, the hedge fund short sellers, have an anti-capitalism agenda, an anti-industrialized nation agenda, and a far left liberal, Marxist radical agenda," Diamond says." Hedge Fund short sellers are not capitalist. They are anti-capitalist and they are not investors; they are anti-investors." He says they "loot" companies and countries.
 
And, they want the company or country to fail and will do what ever they can to help it fail as long as they are holding the short position.

coolhand said:
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/whos-behind-the-financial-crisis/

"The most influential members of Managed Funds Association, the hedge fund short sellers, have an anti-capitalism agenda, an anti-industrialized nation agenda, and a far left liberal, Marxist radical agenda," Diamond says." Hedge Fund short sellers are not capitalist. They are anti-capitalist and they are not investors; they are anti-investors." He says they "loot" companies and countries.
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Are the pertinent Federal authorities fully aware of the dangers you are discussing right now? What measures, if any, are being taken to preclude these groups or firms from doing damage?
 
Of course they are aware and they will do nothing about it because it is the will of the people in power just like it was their will to convince the Fed., Treasury, SEC, FDIC, and Congress to bail them out when their ponzie scheme collapsed. The people had the will to let them fail, Congress is spineless and folds to the will of only the most powerful money brokers.

Here is "tell" as they call it in poker.

http://www.senate.gov/legislative/L...ote_cfm.cfm?congress=110&session=2&vote=00213

Right on the heels of the 2008 Presidential election and all of the "players" voted the same way. Amazing!!! They stopped campaigning to debate and all vote the same way. Amazing!!! They all figured they all had to vote the same way or depending on the outcome it could be used against them in the election. They knew and it was call mutual strategy.

They voted that stinking TARP in to save their political asses and it had nothing to do with right or wrong. After all they had to much time and money invested in the election to do the right thing when the brass ring is so close.

airlift said:
Are the pertinent Federal authorities fully aware of the dangers you are discussing right now? What measures, if any, are being taken to preclude these groups or firms from doing damage?
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